Tour de France 2023

Stage 19 – Moirans-en-Montagne > Poligny (172.7km)

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Stage 18 Result

1st Kasper Asgreen (50/1)

2nd Pascal Eenkhoorn (200/1)

3rd Jonas Abrahamsen (400/1)

Stage 18 Bets

Mads Pedersen 1pt each way (3 places) @10/1 – 5th

Pascal Eenkhoorn 0.25pts each way (3 places) @200/1 – 2nd

Eenkhoorn bridged to the group of three ahead (despite the best efforts of Philipsen to talk him out of it) and they somehow hung on, with the former Dutch champion just being touched off by Asgreen. A 200/1 winner would’ve been nice, but no complaints – chapeau to all four for unbelievable rides. Pedersen followed Philipsen home in fifth confirming his excellent form.  

Stage 19 Preview

Although a designated flat stage, this is hillier than stage 18 which ended in a breakaway win … just. So having seen the sprint teams fail to bring a small, albeit super strong, break back, many will smell blood and we should see an even bigger group go clear this time that won’t be seen again.

A third-category climb (2.3km at 5.9%) peaks 28km from the line which could be a launchpad for attacks, though is perhaps a little too far out to go solo. If a group comes in together, the last turn is a full 8km from home before an arrow-straight run into Poligny where the road rises steadily up to the line.

Stage 19 Contenders

Never say never, but it doesn’t look like sprint teams have the horsepower left to control any kind of substantial break and Alpecin-Deceuninck directeur sportif, Christoph Roodhooft, pretty much admitted that after Thursday’s stage. The start is also more difficult with a fourth-category climb after just 20km – perfect for some strong riders to break clear.

Roodhooft suggested, not unsurprisingly, that it could be the day for Mathieu van der Poel (8/1), having supported Jasper Philipsen (6/1) so well, to be given his shot at a stage win. Alpecin may try to control initially to see if it’s possible, but if not, get one or both up the road. Two-time Tour stage winner Søren Kragh Andersen (14/1) is also a good third option.

With Wout van Aert now back home on baby-domestique duty, Christophe Laporte (22/1) will be given a free role for Jumbo-Visma to try to match his stage 19 win from the Tour last year. The rest of the troops will likely surround the yellow jersey, though Dylan van Baarle (40/1) and Teisj Benoot (80/1) are other interesting options.  

Bahrain-Victorious look to have a strong hand in Matej Mohorič (14/1), Fred Wright (20/1) and Nikias Arndt (50/1) – all super strong riders with good finishes. So too Lidl-Trek with both Mads Pedersen (8/1) and Jasper Stuyven (33/1), the latter having ridden an excellent Tour in the services of others. It’s been a race for veterans to get their arms in the air – could Stuyven be another?

A few years ago, Matteo Trentin (25/1) would’ve been one of the favourites for this, however, he’s morphed into a very reliable domestique these days. Still, the three-time Tour stage winner is a threat and could lighten the mood on the UAE Team Emirates bus before Paris.

Kasper Asgreen (50/1) got his win on stage 18 so will likely sit this one out, but Soudal Quick-Step have other excellent options. Rémi Cavagna (40/1), Yves Lampaert (80/1) and Julian Alaphilippe (40/1) could all try to get ahead. On price, the experienced Lampaert is preferred.

Nils Politt (20/1) very nearly made all the difference on stage 18, halving the break’s advantage singlehandedly inside the final kilometres. He’s on the kind of monster form that saw him bag a win at the Tour a couple of years ago. Politt has to be in the pot.   

EF Education-Easypost will look towards Magnus Cort (11/1) and Alberto Bettiol (40/1) who are both perfect for this but have been strangely anonymous. They may go well, but there’s no grounds in putting either up as a pick.

Groupama-FDJ’s Stefan Küng (50/1) may well be in the break, though a win seems a stretch, so too the likes of Movistar’s Alex Aranburu (40/1), Jayco AlUla’s Luka Mezgec (80/1) and Total Energies’ Anthony Turgis (66/1).

Biniam Girmay (66/1) may look a very big price should a reduced group come to the line together. It could turn into a classics-like race which would be perfect for the Eritrean. Ditto that for Rasmus Tiller (80/1) who’s very strong with a fast finish but often fluffs his lines in the final. The two-time Norwegian champion has been taking advice from his Uno-X teammate Alexander Kristoff (200/1), so maybe this time he can nail it.

Knowing it’s likely to go all the way, the break could take a while to form which adds a certain amount of luck about getting into it. So let’s have a spread of options from the long list of hopefuls above.

Stage 19 Bets

Matej Mohorič 0.5pts each way (5 places) @14/1

Fred Wright 0.5pts each way (5 places) @20/1

Nils Politt 0.5pts each way (5 places) @20/1

Jasper Stuyven 0.5pts each way (5 places) @33/1

Rasmus Tiller 0.25pts each way (5 places) @80/1

Yves Lampaert 0.25pts each way (5 places) @80/1

Posted 23:48 BST 20th July 2023

Prices (in brackets) to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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