Tour de France 2023

Stage 21 – Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines > Paris Champs-Élysées (115km)

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Stage 20 Result

1st Tadej Pogačar (5/1)

2nd Felix Gall (10/1)

3rd Jonas Vingegaard (2/1F)

4th Simon Yates (18/1)

Stage 20 Bets

Felix Gall 1pt each way (3 places) @10/1 – 2nd

Sepp Kuss 0.5pts each way (3 places) @28/1

Chris Harper 0.5pts each way (3 places) @70/1

Bob Jungels 0.25pts each way (3 places) @300/1

A good second with Gall who was always going to struggle to beat Pogačar in a sprint. Harper made the break, but the GC teams were determined to chase it down and he was fourth best out of it anyway. Kuss came down on a descent and that was him out of the game, and Jungels pulled for Hindley rather than take his own chance.

Ciccone came through for us in the KOM to save the outright selections somewhat. To Paris!

Stage 21 Preview

For the yellow jersey, this is all about staying upright and savouring the procession into Paris, no doubt with a glass of champagne on the way. But for the sprinters it’s a chance to add one of the most prestigious wins in cycling to their palmarès. So, there’s a big disparity in stress levels amongst the riders.

The stage should end in a sprint but given the fatigue we’ve seen in the peloton over the last few days, a breakaway or late attack isn’t without a chance. The Champs-Élysées sprint itself is a cobbled uphill drag and tough on tired legs which will be a factor in determining the day’s winner.

Stage 21 Contenders

Not since 2005 has the Champs-Élysées stage failed to end in a bunch finish. But from what we saw on stage 18, sprint teams will have to be vigilant not to let any strong rouleurs up the road and keep any break on a very tight leash to make sure they can bring it back.

That said, it isn’t the time for brinkmanship and not committing riders to the chase, so there should be enough team cooperation to hold it together.

Jasper Philipsen (1/2F) has clearly been the standout sprinter of this year’s Tour de France – four wins, a second, and two consecutive fourth places that would’ve been wins had they caught the break. He’s seemed a bit grumpy this week, being unnecessarily aggressive with Pascal Eenkhoorn on stage 18 and then haranguing riders from other teams for failing to set him up for another win the day after. He won on the Champs last year and looks unbeatable in a straight sprint – but strange things can happen at the end of a Grand Tour.

Dylan Groenewegen (11/2) showed on the brutal stage 19 that he’s still riding strongly, boxing on at the pointy end for a long time. But the sprints haven’t quite worked out for him, with a second on stage 11 his best result. He’ll be led out by Luka Mezgec who always performs well at the end of a Grand Tour, coming close to a Champs win himself a couple of years ago. Groenewegen is a former winner so he knows what’s needed.

Mads Pedersen (11/2) is now looking the second strongest sprinter in a depleted field, coming in behind Philipsen on stages 18 and 19. He’s suited by the tough drag to the finish and is sure to be in the mix. Pedersen came closest to a win on the Champs in 2020, following home green jersey wearer Sam Bennett. He worked very hard on Saturday, however, helping to deliver Ciccone his KOM win.

Christophe Laporte (25/1) is also suited by the finish. He’s looking very strong and has ridden an excellent race in the service of others. But will he even compete in the sprint? Last year, Wout van Aert preferred to ride in with his teammates behind the peloton and savour the overall win. It’s likely though he’ll be given a free hand and isn’t without a chance.

Sam Welsford (20/1) has finished no better than 10th but, as has been repeatedly pointed out, he has the speed to win if in a good position. This gives him a puncher’s chance but previous results don’t fill you with confidence.

Biniam Girmay (33/1) hasn’t had a great Tour with a single third place finish his only top 10. It’s difficult to pinpoint why – the pressure, the brutal nature of the racing perhaps – but in theory this type of finish up against tired legs should suit him and he’s drifted out to a very backable price.

Jordi Meeus (40/1) has been in decent positions but hasn’t quite got it right in the final. Judging by his performances on stages 18 and 19, his legs are fresher than some, which is enough to give him a shot of being in the frame.

Cees Bol (80/1) was third in the sprint behind Pedersen and Philipsen on stage 18 and has been a little overpriced since Mark Cavendish went home. A place is definitely achievable for the Dutchman.

It’s easier said than done, but sprint teams can’t give any rope to the likes of Kasper Asgreen (28/1), Victor Campanaerts (80/1), Rémi Cavagna (100/1), or Nils Politt (150/1). Otherwise, they might not see them again.

Philipsen will almost certainly win but is unbackable at the price, so let’s go for Girmay for what would be a defining moment in the history of cycling. Bol, at big odds is also worth a small interest.

Stage 21 Bets

Biniam Girmay 1pt each way (3 places) @33/1

Cees Bol 0.5pts each way (3 places) @80/1

Posted 19:52 BST 22nd July 2023

Prices (in brackets) to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

Stage 21 Result

1st Jordi Meeus (40/1)

2nd Jasper Philipsen (1/2F)

3rd Dylan Groenewegen (11/2)

Stage 21 Bets

Biniam Girmay 1pt each way (3 places) @33/1 – 6th

Cees Bol 0.5pts each way (3 places) @80/1 – 5th

Decent runs from the two picks but not quite enough juice left in the legs to challenge in what turned out to be a surprisingly close finish.

Tour de France 2023 Result

1st Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)

2nd Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) +7mins 29secs

3rd Adam (UAE Team Emirates) +10mins 56secs

Outright Bets

Top 3 – Ben O’Connor 1pt win @11/2 – lost

Top 10 – Tom Pidcock 1pt win @9/2 – lost

King of the Mountains – Giulio Ciccone 1pt win @9/2 – won

King of the Mountains – Tom Pidcock 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1 – lost

O’Connor didn’t carry his form over from the Critérium du Dauphine and was out the GC game early, probably not helped by the explosive start in the Basque Country. Pidcock rode for GC experience and was looking good but dropped away in the Alps, finishing just outside the top 10. Ciccone came through in the KOM to save the outright picks and good to see a non-GC player win that competition – those double points at the high point in the race don’t make it easy!

Summary

A surprising number of big-priced winners at this year’s Tour de France made finding a winner quite difficult, but a good final week secured a healthy profit.

Hope you enjoyed the previews – thanks for reading! See you in a few weeks for the Vuelta a España which this year kicks off in Barcelona.

Total staked: 78.5pts; Total returned 112.4pts (+43.2%)