Tour de France 2022

Stage 14 – Saint-Étienne > Mende (192.5km)

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Stage 13 Result

1st Mads Pedersen (14/1)

2nd Fred Wright (50/1)

3rd Hugo Houle (200/1)

4th Stefan Küng (80/1)

Stage 13 Bets

2pts win Jasper Philipsen @8/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Nils Politt @100/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Stefan Küng @80/1 – 4th

0.25pts each way (4 places) Taco van der Hoorn @80/1

Küng made the break that went to the end but didn’t have the legs of Pedersen, chapeau to him. Both Van der Hoorn and Politt were in an early break that got brought back, and of course Philipsen didn’t get a chance to compete in the sprint. Ewan’s crash behind pretty much killed the chase, though had BikeExchange lent a hand earlier, the result could’ve been different.

Stage 14 Preview

We start stage 14 just a couple of streets from where we finished on stage 13, in the centre of St Étienne for a hilly stage with a sting in the tail. There are five categorised climbs to get over – four third- and one second-category – and many more uncategorised in between. It’s a day for the puncheurs and perhaps even the odd GC man that’s dropped out of contention to make the break that, given such demanding terrain and the searing heat, is unlikely to be chased down.

The strongest should be able to make the split on the first climb of the day – 7.7km at 3.9% – but there could be a big fight for it. The stage winner is likely to be decided on the final ascent to the airfield in Mende which is a nasty 3km at 10.2% before it levels off down the runway.

Stage 14 Contenders

Given the steep ramp in the final, we’re sure to see Tadej Pogačar try to steal some time back on Jonas Vingegaard in the battle for the yellow jersey. But UAE Team Emirates are unlikely to ride all day to set up Pogačar for the stage win. Nothing is 100% but this looks like a day for two races in one – the breakaway for the stage plus a GC dust-up behind.

So we’re looking for punchy climbers who still have some legs at the end of a gruelling second week. We’re guessing to a large degree on the second part, but we’ve got a decent idea who’s likely to keep pushing for opportunities.  

Bora-hansgrohe’s Lennard Kämna was a marked man in the break on stage 10 and ultimately paid for his countless foiled attacks. But the terrain also didn’t help – the gradients weren’t steep enough for him to make a gap. That isn’t the case here. Assuming he’s still got some zip in those legs, Kämna has to be a leading fancy here and is priced around 12/1 for the win.

Like all teams, Bora will want more than one rider in the break and in Max Schachmann have another great option for the stage. The two-time Paris-Nice winner has taken a few tumbles but he’s undoubtedly a class act and this stage is perfect for him. He’s a bit bigger at 22/1.

What a Tour it’s been for EF Education-Easypost’s Magnus Cort. He followed up wearing the polka dot jersey at home in Denmark with a stage win into Mègeve. Could he be hungry for more? A tough, hilly stage suits him though he’s likely to find others nippier on the final climb. That said, he was dropped on the final climb on stage 10 and still sprinted to the win.

I prefer another man in pink – Alberto Bettiol. Having Cort with him on that stage did for his chances in some ways. EF could play his card and keep Cort for the sprint. But he attacked way too early, suffered solo in the valley and then was caught on the climb. He clearly still has great legs, but just needs a bit of luck. Bettiol opened at 80/1 which was way too big and has since been cut to 33s.

Had he not won on Alpe d’Huez then Ineos Grenadiers’ Tom Pidcock would’ve been one of the bet selections on a stage that’s a great fit for the young Brit. There’s no doubt he could still get up the road and win but after his exploits on the Alpe may be looking for the rest day before attacking again next week.

It was telling that Ineos gave a day pass to Filippo Ganna to get up the road on stage 13. So they’re continuing to be attack-minded despite Geraint Thomas sitting third on GC. If Pidcock doesn’t go forward, expect another Ineos rider to be there.

Dani Martínez has been suffering with illness otherwise he’d have been a great option and so Dylan van Baarle is likely to be the chosen one and is available at attractive triple-figure odds.

Trek-Segafredo had a great win on stage 13 with Mads Pedersen – what a brave ride. Without a GC contender or a pure sprinter, they’ve animated many of the stages and deserved that win. Pedersen was helped early by Quinn Simmons whose energy levels never seem to drop. But that was a tough day out so let’s leave the American for this one.

His teammates Jasper Stuyven, Bauke Mollema or Giulio Ciccone are potential players. Stuyven came third on this finish in 2018 after attacking solo and is big at 125/1. However, he doesn’t have the explosivity for that last climb and so is likely to find others faster.

It’s sad that we haven’t seen the best of Mollema who’s been struggling with illness. Hopefully he’ll come good in the final week, but a watching brief is better here. Similarly, Ciccone has not been his feisty self but there were signs on the stage to Alpe d’Huez that his form is returning and will be one to watch in the mountains next week. They’re both around the 25/1 mark.

Another former placed rider on this finish is Groupama-FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot who was mugged into second by Steve Cummings in 2015. Although obviously more of a pure climber than puncheur, the label doesn’t matter if he’s the best in the break.

At a bigger price I prefer his teammate Valentin Madouas who showed his punchiness and durability when finishing third at the Tour of Flanders. The 33s about him is decent enough.

Lotto-Soudal really need a result with Andreas Kron’s fourth on stage 8 their best finish. Kron is again their best hope with an uphill finish his speciality. You also can’t rule out Tim Wellens though we haven’t seen the best of him this Tour.

Israel Premier-Tech’s Michael Woods and Jakob Fuglsang are potential winners, the finish especially suiting the Canadian. But the relatively short prices about them don’t appeal considering how anonymous they’ve been so far.

It’s a similar story for QuickStep-Alpha Vinyl’s Andrea Bagioli and Mikkel Honoré. A good stage for both but nothing we’ve seen so far suggests they’re in the form to compete.

Bahrain Victorious just missed out with Fred Wright on stage 13 but have one of the favourites for this. La Flèche Wallone winner Dylan Teuns loves an uphill finish. But is he on that kind of form?

There are plenty in with a shout and we could see a huge break go clear. Hopefully we’ll get a run for our money with these.

Stage 14 Bets

1pt win Lennard Kämna @12/1

1pt each way (4 places) Max Schachmann @22/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Alberto Bettiol @33/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Valentin Madouas @33/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Dylan van Baarle @80/1

Posted 2056 BST Fri 15th July 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker