Vuelta a España 2024

Stage 14 – Villafranca del Bierzo > Villablino (200km)

Sat 31st Aug | KM0: 12:37 CET

Profile

Stage 14 Preview

Where: Hopping between the regions of Castilla y León and Asturias in northern Spain.  

Stage Type: Medium Mountains.

Weather: Could be wet for the first time with thunderstorms forecast in the afternoon.

Climbs: A third-category climb bang in the middle of the 200km route before the first-category Puerto de Leitariegos (22.8km at 4.5%) which is very even in gradient and peaks 16km from home.

Start: A couple of unclassified lumps in the first 40km on steadily rising ground. Suits rouleurs rather than climbers.

Finish: A descent from the top of the last climb before a few kilometres of flat road, so a fast finish will probably be needed to take the win.

Stage suits: It’s a big gear climb at the end which will suit strong rouleurs and breakaway specialists who descend well and have a sprint.

Breakaway chances: Very good. The final climb isn’t hard enough to forge gaps amongst the GC men so any break should be allowed to contest the final.

What will happen?: A big fight for the break which once established will be given a big lead and contain the day’s winner. Little or no action behind amongst the favourites. In short, a breakaway win.

Stage 14 Contenders

Wout van Aert (10/3; 4.33) looks eager to get up the road every day and now holds both green and mountains jerseys. The steep ending to stage 13 didn’t really suit yet Van Aert still managed fifth - this power climb is more to his liking. Should he get up the road he seems unlikely to get dropped and of course is super fast to the line, hence the short price.

Jhonatan Narvaez (8/1) was favourite in-running on stage 12 before it got complicated and he got run out of it. Prefers short, punchy climbs, so this long, non-punchy one isn’t ideal. But is he likely to get dropped? Probably not so must be a danger with his fast finish.

Max Poole (16/1) had a day out of the break on stage 13 so may be refreshed enough for another go having finished second and third two days running. A smart bike rider as well as a strong one, Poole isn’t slow on the line either.  

Quinten Hermans (25/1) came home second in the complicated final that Eddie Dunbar won. Can climb and sprint.

Marc Soler (33/1) just keeps going and has finished in the frame on three of the last four stages. No doubt will be up there again but a win seems elusive. Tends to be leant on and he doesn’t have the punch to get clear. The final descent to the line isn’t ideal for him either.

Marco Frigo (33/1) said he was put on domestique duty on stage 13 to look after George Bennett but the Kiwi lost time in the GC battle and now sits in 12th, 6mins adrift. So Frigo should be given licence to get up the road and is excellent at anticipating a race and maximising his result. Corbin Strong (150/1) may be able to hang on up the climb and is another card for Israel Premier Tech

Mauro Schmid (33/1) is on top form and climbing incredibly well. Second and fourth in the last two stages, he might be fatigued but it’s often the case in Grand Tours where riders with the legs get results day after day.

Stefan Küng (40/1) wasn’t in the break on stage 13 which was probably wise as the finish wasn’t for him. As a power climber, he has a chance to stay with the front group here though and appears to have developed a sprint too which gives him a chance.

Mathias Vacek (50/1) has been a bit quiet since an eye-catching opening week but has the attributes to go well on the parcours.

Pau Miquel (150/1) showed in the first week that he can climb as well as sprint and although this longer test may be on the edge of his capabilities can’t be ruled out. After Pablo Castrillo (66/1) got his excellent win, could Miquel double up for Equipo Kern Pharma?

Stage 14 Bets

The final long but shallow climb makes it intriguing as all sorts of different rider types could be battling for the win. The start definitely favours a strong rouleur, however, so the picks reflect that to some extent, whilst Max Poole deserves another chance after sitting stage 13 out.

Max Poole 2pts each way (3 places) @16/1

Marco Frigo 1pt each way (5 places) @25/1

Stefan Küng 1pt each way (5 places) @40/1

Mathias Vacek 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1 – 4th

Pau Miquel 0.5pts each way (5 places) @150/1 – 5th

Posted 22:29 BST Fri 30th Aug 2024

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 14 Result

1st Kaden Groves (125/1)

2nd Wout van Aert (10/3F)

3rd Corbin Strong (150/1)

4th Mathias Vacek (50/1)

5th Pau Miquel (150/1)

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]