Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 14 – Castiglione delle Stiviere > Desenzano del Garda TUDOR ITT (31.2km)
Sat 18th May | First rider: 13:20 CET; Last rider: 16:35 CET
Profile
Stage 13 Result
1st Jonathan Milan (5/6F)
2nd Stanisław Aniołkowski (225/1)
3rd Phil Bauhaus (25/1)
Stage 13 Bets
Kaden Groves 1pt each way (3 places) @9/1
The importance of a good leadout. A masterclass from Lidl-Trek who controlled the race inside the last 5km and Milan delivered despite being caught out in the crosswinds earlier in the day. Alpecin-Deceuninck hit the front with about 12km to go but when it really mattered were nowhere to be seen. Very disappointing – no caps for me.
Stage 14 Preview
The second individual time trial of this year’s Giro but, unlike the first, this one doesn’t include any significant climbing. It’s generally rolling or flat terrain for just over 30km on the way to the shores of Lake Garda, so it should favour the specialists.
There’s quite a discrepancy between time trialling abilities in and around the top 10 on general classification, so we should see some movement before they hit the mountains. With regards the stage win, the forecast is for light wind and sunshine all day so neither early nor late starters ought to be advantaged.
Stage 14 Contenders
Filippo Ganna (1/5; 1.2) looked all over the winner of the first TT until Pogačar started climbing and is a big favourite to take this. The five-time Giro time trial winner must’ve been a bit devastated by that loss and will be looking to put it right here on a course that suits him perfectly.
Tadej Pogačar (11/2; 6.5) was 47secs down on Ganna through the second split on stage 7, ie. the flat section, but was clearly holding something back given the ridiculous effort he produced on the final climb. Can he beat Ganna here on mainly flat roads? You can never right him off, but it seems a stretch. Plus he might have a bit of a sniffle … or not.
Magnus Sheffield (13/2; 7.5) has now put in three exceptional time trials this year – beaten only by Evenepoel in the Volta ao Algarve, by McNulty who got lucky with the weather in the Tour de Romandie, and on stage 7 here, beaten only by Ganna and Pogačar. The American time trial specialist has a big engine, is going well and could be chasing his Italian teammate home.
Thymen Arensman (14/1; 15.0) finished fourth on stage 7 and was actually a bit ahead of Sheffield at the second time check. He started the Giro slowly, losing time on the opening two stages, but now looks to have ridden into some form. With some weaker time triallists around him, Arensman has a great chance of riding back into top 5 GC contention.
Geraint Thomas (16/1; 17.0) didn’t have the greatest first TT, almost 2mins behind Pogačar in tenth, though he lost most of that on the final climb rather than on the flat. Thomas will want to put that right and can go a long way to firming up his place on the podium.
Luke Plapp (80/1; 81.0) still made the top 10 on stage 7 despite being out in the breakaway the day before. He’s been suffering since with a bit of sickness but could put up something decent here in his favoured discipline.
It’s very difficult to see past Ganna for the win but of course there’s no value in his price. However, looking elsewhere, Magnus Sheffield at 5/4 to make the top 3 doesn’t look too bad and that’s the stage 14 pick.
Stage 14 Bets
Magnus Sheffield 2pts Top 3 @5/4
Posted 20:16 BST Fri 17th May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
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