Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 14 – Montoro > Sierra de la Pandera (160.3km)

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Stage 13 Result

1st Mads Pedersen (2/1F)

2nd Bryan Coquard (12/1)

3rd Pascal Ackermann (18/1)

Stage 13 Bets

3pts win Danny van Poppel @10/3 – 5th

1pt each way (3 places) Fred Wright @25/1 – 4th

0.5pts each way (3 places) Thomas de Gendt @80/1

0.25pts each way (3 places) Ben Turner @250/1

Van Poppel needed to be on the wheel of Pedersen as Ackermann attacked but was just a couple of riders behind, though not sure anyone was beating Pedersen anyway. Wright finished fast and just missed out on third by half a wheel or so.

Stage 14 Preview

Another mountain stage and another summit finish, though this looks significantly tougher than the one a couple of days ago which failed to produce any real fireworks in the GC battle. It’s on a double step, the first of which, unusually, is also classified as a 10.4km second-category at an average of 5.5% before a short descent and then the final climb to the line – the first-category Sierra de la Pandera measuring 8.4km at 7.8% but sustaining a 12% average for over 2km near the top.

This is where we’ll see attacks and gaps will be made, no doubt. There’s a bit of rolling terrain in the first 20km that could help the break get ahead, but there’ll be a fight for it as breakaways have been given enough rope to win these mountain finishes so far. Will the same play out here or will the pace behind be too hot?

Stage 14 Contenders

As mentioned previously, a big summit finish does tend to tip the balance towards a win for the general classification contenders. That didn’t happen on stage 12 but the ramps are tougher here and time is running out – moves have to be made and perhaps even a knockout punch or two could be thrown. However, GC teams have been unable or unwilling to manage the gap to strong breakaways, so two races in one looks the most likely outcome.

It feels like breakaways have won all the mountain stages so far, however, Jay Vine actually won from the GC group on stage 6 having had a mechanical at the start, missing the decisive move. Two wins later he was odds-on favourite in-running to make it three on stage 12 but struggled more on that long power climb. With his mountain jersey on the line this weekend, the Aussie is likely to be up the road again and is around 12/1 for the stage.

Through form or misfortune or simply retargeted end of season goals, there are now an awful lot of very capable climbers that are not in GC contention and therefore solely out to grab some stage glory. But as with stage 12, which also had a flattish start, there’ll be a certain amount of good fortune about picking the right move when the early attacks start flying.

Bahrain Victorious’ Mark Padun expended a lot of energy in a move that didn’t stick – no doubt he’ll be trying again here. We’ve been denied seeing him in full flow since he made the break on stage 6, which is a shame. Despite this, his price seems to get shorter – only around 11/1 is on offer for the Ukrainian.

After the event, the 25/1 about Richard Carapaz for stage 12 of course looks big given his pedigree, but he was not going well up to that point and a certain amount of blind faith would’ve been required to back him. Blind faith that would’ve been rewarded as it turns out. Chop that price down to around 7s for this. It’s very possible that he doubles up, but the value was missed two days ago.

Whilst it doesn’t reveal the full picture, noting the riders who finished in and amongst the GC men on the previous mountain stage is a decent measure of who’s going well and could win from a future breakaway.  

First in that bracket is David de la Cruz, and whilst it’s been four years since the Catalan’s last win and Astana-Qazaqstan are having a shocking season, he did show good form at the Tour of the Alps earlier this year and has performed very well deep into the Vuelta a España these last two years. Is he a likely winner though and therefore is the 25/1 about him good enough value?

Next up Rein Taaramäe who, along now with his Intermarché-Wanty teammate Louis Meintjes, is a former Vuelta stage winner. They’ll both look to catch the right move and are around the 20/1 mark. However, Meintjes, as well as De La Cruz, are hovering just outside the top 10 on GC which could mean some teams will be reluctant to let them go.

Groupama-FDJ missed the big move completely on stage 12 and will be doubly motivated for that not to be repeated. There appear to be positive noises around the form of Thibaut Pinot, mainly from the man himself, but again there are no secrets and the Frenchman is only about 16/1 for this.

If it comes down to a GC battle, then it’s difficult to look past current red jersey wearer Remco Evenepoel. Despite his little spill, he still led in the rest and gapped all but three of his rivals on stage 12. These long, hot climbs could be his kryptonite, but at the moment it doesn’t look likely.

Enric Mas is still sticking to his wheel, though as mentioned before you tend not to win much if you stay behind that wheel. Primož Roglič looks solid but a level below his best, and it was telling that he didn’t come round the Belgian on the stage 12 finish despite having the better sprint.

Juan Ayuso continues to impress but now has Covid and so continues ill, though not quite ill enough to be forced to withdraw, leading other riders that have already left the race to question the protocols in place.

Perhaps the GC man on the biggest upturn is Miguel Ángel López who has chased home the favourites in both the last summit finishes alongside delivering an excellent top 10 result in the time trial. At almost 7mins off the red jersey, he may also be given a little bit of rope should he attack on the final climb. On price, the little Colombian is worth a small interest.

So a few breakaway hopes and a GC saver for the start of what could be a very decisive weekend in this year’s race.

Stage 14 Bets

2pts win Mark Padun @12/1

1pt each way (3 places) Rein Taaramäe @20/1

1pt each way (3 places) Thibaut Pinot @18/1

1pt each way (3 places) David de la Cruz @33/1

1pt each way (3 places) Miguel Ángel López @33/1

Posted 2052 BST Fri 2nd Sep 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker