Stage 14 – Santena > Torino (147km)

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Stage 13 Result

1st Arnaud DÉMARE (4/1F)

2nd Phil BAUHAUS (40/1)  

3rd Mark CAVENDISH (12/1)

4th Fernando GAVIRIA (11/2)

Stage 13 Bets

Fernando Gaviria 2pts win @11/2 – 4th

Mauro Schmid 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Alessandro Covi 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1

Chapeau-meter

Démare, with his third win of the Giro, did well to box Gaviria in against the barrier when the sprint was unleashed, but to be fair I’m not sure the Colombian had the legs anyway. The attacks on the climb didn’t materialise as many predicted, with sprint teams managing to pace their fastmen up it. So, it was a stage for the sprinters … but only just, with the break being caught with 500m to go.

Stage 14 Preview

There’s an awful lot packed into this – the shortest road stage of the Giro at just 147km – with five categorised climbs and plenty more unclassified which, together with the unseasonably high temperatures, will make this a tough day in the saddle.

The stage takes in two laps of a 36km circuit around Torino which includes the second-category climbs of Superga (5km at 8.6%, max.14%) and Colle della Maddalena (3.5km at 8.1%, max 20%) where, on the second time round, the race winning move is likely to go.

Contenders

The climbs in this stage have some serious double-digit gradients and GC players will have to be at the top of their game not to lose significant time. There’ll be attacks but perhaps not till the penultimate climb on the second circuit. That means it looks nailed-on a breakaway day. So, for perhaps the first time this Giro, it’s time to have a proper game of Breakaway Bingo. Same rules as ever – we’re looking for good climbers with time on GC who have licence to get up the road.   

Knowing that the break has a great chance of taking the day, there’ll be a big fight to get into it. There are a couple of bumps at 17km and 22km where the elastic might snap, otherwise it should form on the first climb 37km in. 

So who are the likely candidates? Bora-hansgrohe’s Lennard Kämna won stage 4 and then launched a few unsuccessful attacks on subsequent days to take the pink jersey from Juan Pedro López. Assuming he’s maintained the form he came in with, Kämna has to be a major player. He’s sitting just 10mins 44secs off López which is on the bubble of breakaway pass acceptability. However, following Wilco Kelderman’s jump up the leaderboard on stage 10, Bora now have three riders in the top 12 – do other teams really want a fourth Bora rider to have to worry about?

Despite having two GC players in Mikel Landa and Pello Bilbao, Bahrain Victorious have allowed others to go up the road. Both Wout Poels and Santiago Buitrago have been in potentially winning positions. With such a crucial weekend ahead of them, will they continue to hand out these licences? Should it all come back together, the final is on a rapid descent, so given Bilbao’s skills downhill, he’s an excellent GC saver. 

Davide Formolo was last man standing for João Almeida on the Blockhaus climb so with a proper mountain stage coming up on Sunday, you’d think he’d be asked to cool his boots here. But you never know. If he’s in the break, he’ll be one of the favourites. UAE could send Alessandro Covi up, but these climbs may be a little tough for him.

With no dog in the GC fight, Quick-Step will definitely want representation in the break. Almost certainly, one or more of Mauro Schmid, Mauri Vansevenant, and James Knox will be in it. The parcours suits Vansevenant best, but Schmid has been more impressive. 

Now that Simon Yates is out of GC contention, BikeExchange-Jayco are also certain to have representation. Yates himself has been installed as favourite at around 4/1. At his best – and he didn’t look too hampered when he attacked on stage 10 – he should smoke anyone he finds up the road with him. But is he at his best following his knee injury? And what about the heat? It might be touching 30 degrees on Saturday which isn’t in the Brit’s favour. All in all, a good chance of winning, but not a value bet. Lucas Hamilton was in the break on stage 12 and performed better than many, but he’s not the most confident descender which will be at a premium here. 

Trek-Segafredo’s single goal for the day will be to keep López in the maglia rosa. Giulio Ciccone has stated that, now his own GC hopes are over, his focus is on helping his teammate whilst he’s still in pink, so I think it’s unlikely he’ll go in the break. What’s more, he hasn’t looked on top form, so would be unlikely to convert the win anyway. Bauke Mollema could be given licence and looks to be getting stronger as others tire. He’s just 6mins 35secs off the lead and in normal circumstances wouldn’t be allowed up the road. However, he isn’t really a GC threat and they might stamp his ticket this once.  

Astana-Qazakhstan will almost certainly throw men forward. David de la Cruz, Joe Dombrowski, Harold Tejada and Vladim Pronskiy are all candidates. De la Cruz came into the Giro with good form but hasn’t really been able to show it. Dombrowski has already been the pick of a breakaway on the Blockhaus stage. Both are around the 40/1 mark and there’ll be an internal game of eeny, meeny, miny, moe before I pick the wrong one at the end of the preview. 

Though it ended in a nasty looking tumble, Natnael Tesfatsion looked super impressive for a long way on stage 9. He rode very smartly for a young lad, specifically by refusing to do a stitch of work on the front all day. It shows he refuses to be bullied by more experienced riders and is willing to be patient. It’s a course that suits and, assuming he can stay on the road this time, is worth an interest at triple-figure odds. 

Jumbo-Visma’s Koen Bouwman is a threat but is just 9mins 38secs behind. That’s even more on the bubble than Kämna, if there are bubble gradations. Teammate Tobias Foss by his own admission is not at his best and so is also best dodged. 

Intermarche’s Rein Taaramäe looked good in the break on stage 12, then suddenly didn’t. Was he too affected by the heat? That won’t do his hopes much good here. 

It’s another perfect stage for Jhonatan Narváez, though Ineos stubbornly refuse to let anyone off the leash. Still, at 600/1, it’s a free swing and completes a very familiar-looking selection box of hopefuls.

Stage 14 Bets

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Pello Bilbao 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1 

David de la Cruz 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Mauro Schmid 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Natnael Tesfatsion 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Jhonatan Narváez 0.25pts each way (4 places) @600/1

Posted 21.15 BST Fri 20th May 2022

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