Tour de France 2023

Stage 15 – Les Gets Les Portes du Soleil > Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc (178.8km)

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Stage 14 Result

1st Carlos Rodríguez (66/1)

2nd Tadej Pogačar (4/1F)

3rd Jonas Vingegaard (7/1)

4th Adam Yates (80/1)

Stage 14 Bets

Tadej Pogačar 1pt win @9/2 – 2nd

Mattias Skjelmose 1pt each way (4 places) @12/1

Michael Woods 1pt each way (4 places) @18/1

Jonathan Castroviejo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

A great stage that Pogačar looked certain to win, but chapeau to Rodríguez who’s now eyeing a podium spot. Woods made the break but Jumbo-Visma ensured it had no chance, Skjelmose went down in the big early crash which neutralised the race, and Castroviejo again put in a great ride but in the service of others.

Stage 15 Preview

The last in a trio of mountain stages before a well-deserved rest day takes in five categorized climbs and ends in a summit finish at the foot of Mont Blanc. The gradients aren’t quite as tough is stage 14 until the final 15km where the riders effectively take on two climbs in one – the second-category Côte des Amerands (2.7km at 10.9%) and then straight into a first-category up to Saint-Gervais-les-Bains (7km at 7.7%) whose toughest slopes are near the top.

The start is tricky for riders eyeing the breakaway with lots of flat road following a small hill at KM0. Climbers will either need help from a strong teammate or wait till two unclassified rises 25km later before making a jump.  

Stage 15 Contenders

Both UAE Team Emirates and Jumbo-Visma have taken the race to each other over the last two stages for very little gain. The two protagonists are so evenly matched. There’ll be a real build-up of fatigue now – either could crack, but neither knows who’s closest to doing so. Will there now be a standoff or are we going to get fireworks again?

What an epic stage on Saturday. Jumbo-Visma’s tactics were clear – to fatigue Pogačar enough over a series of climbs to take the sting out of his legs and hope Jonas Vingegaard (8/1) could drop Tadej Pogačar (3/1) on the final climb. It was Pogačar who attacked though and, but for a camera moto blocking the road, would most likely have won the stage and put time into Vingegaard with bonus seconds.

Jumbo-Visma tested Pogačar pretty severely and he was up to it. Will they try again and hope stage 14 has left more of a mark on him than it did their own man? Or allow a break to win rather than risk losing bonus seconds on the line in a finish that looks more suited to the Slovenian? Or will UAE ride for the very same reasons?

We don’t know, but the balance is in favour of the break being allowed to take the win leaving the two to battle it out on the final climb.

We pretty much know who the best climbers outside the GC fight are now. It’s all about whether they can make the break and whether it stays away.

Michael Woods (12/1) rode cleverly on stage 14, staying out of the fight for the break, waiting for it to settle, before firing one bullet to get up to it. He’s clearly still got great legs and an appetite to add to his single stage win. He also seems interested in KOM points, but should concentrate on the stage win, especially if Giulio Ciccone (12/1) is up the road with him, who’ll always beat him in a sprint for those points.

The Italian was on one of his good days on Saturday and was unlucky Jumbo-Visma rode the break down so hurriedly. He needs another one here if he wants to be wearing the polka dots in Paris. In Ciccone’s favour, unlike stage 14, two first-category climbs come relatively early in the stage, so the break is guaranteed to mop them up. The energy spent in all those hilltop sprints may cost him a stage win though. Lidl-Trek are likely to dedicate all resources to ensuring Ciccone makes the break.

His teammate Mattias Skjelmose (25/1) came down in the early crash that neutralised the stage. Afterwards, he said he was fine but felt he had a ‘wooden’ leg, played no part in battling for the break and bailed out early in the final, finishing over 30mins down. He’ll be sore on Sunday morning, but this is another great chance for the Danish champion.  

Thibaut Pinot (25/1) made the break on stage 14 but didn’t push on with Woods and Ciccone either because he knew it was doomed or he was flattering to deceive again. It’s not clear he’s quite got the form to get his stage win but does at least now have plenty of time on GC to guarantee his freedom.

Tom Pidcock (14/1) cracked disappointingly on the penultimate climb as Jumbo-Visma turned the screw. At over 14mins down, he also has some licence to get up the road and chase a stage win. However, Groupama–FDJ for David Gaudu (18/1) and AG2R Citroën for Felix Gall (20/1) may have something to say about their top 10s being challenged and a domino effect up the GC standings might be triggered.

Another option would be Jonathan Castroviejo (50/1) who needs to be given an opportunity to chase what would be the third stage in a row for Ineos Grenadiers. He’s in great climbing form, however, with Carlos Rodríguez (33/1) now in a podium spot, he may be held back again.

Be brave – we’re going all-in on a breakaway win. Eek!

Stage 15 Bets

Michael Woods 1pt each way (4 places) @12/1

Mattias Skjelmose 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Jonathan Castroviejo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Posted 21:34 BST 15th July 2023

Prices in brackets are to win the stage. They’re correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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