Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 15 – Manerba del Garda - Livigno (Mottolino) (220km)
Sun 19th May | Scheduled start: 10:25 CET
Profile
Stage 14 Result
1st Filippo Ganna (1/5F)
2nd Tadej Pogačar (11/2) +29secs
3rd Thymen Arensman (14/1) +1min 7secs
Stage 14 Bets
Magnus Sheffield 2pts Top 3 @5/4
Stage 14 and the first hard luck story of the Giro, which is later than usual. Sheffield was well on his way to a likely third place before a nasty crash 7km out. Ganna put in a monster ride and even though it looked touch and go after the first time check, won pretty comfortably in the end.
Stage 15 Preview
The Queen Stage of this year’s Giro d’Italia is a true leg breaker with 5,500m of Alpine climbs which, placed before the second rest day, should see plenty of action amongst the GC players. If the break hasn’t formed on the third-category climb 30km in, it will go on the tougher second-category Colle San Zeno (13.9km at 6.6%, max 14%) which tops out around the 65km mark.
After the valley road comes the mighty Mortirolo, albeit on its ‘easier’ side (12.6km at 7.6%), which was a late addition after Swiss authorities put the mockers on a planned border crossing. Then finally a double first-category summit finish with the toughest stuff in the last 2km – an average of around 10% and a maximum gradient of 19% finishing off a brute of a stage that’s not to be missed.
Stage 15 Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (Evs; 2.0) made it clear after stage 14 that he and his UAE teammates plan to go for the win and the parcours certainly leans towards that outcome. Pogačar has been known to have an off-day in the mountains, as shown by the last two Tours de France, but that isn’t the vibe here. Assuming it comes back together, he’s the overwhelming favourite which is reflected in his short price.
Dani Martínez (14/1; 15.0) was a bit disappointing on stage 7 but apart from that hasn’t put much of a foot wrong. The steep gradients at the end favour him, so too the higher altitude, but he doesn’t have a great record in three-week tours and may be on the slide.
Geraint Thomas (28/1; 29.0) moved into second on GC after a very solid time trial effort. His experience and consistency should keep him in the podium spots but challenging Pogačar for the stage win seems unlikely.
Ben O’Connor (20/1; 21.0) put in an excellent time trial, losing only 11secs to Thomas. He’s looking happy in himself and so far his results are reflecting that. This is a test of course but he could well follow Pogačar home.
Antonio Tiberi (40/1; 41.0) has carried his excellent form over from the Tour of the Alps. Can he keep it going for three weeks? Pogačar has given him props as the only rider will balls to go on the attack. That was largely to secure the white jersey, but it can’t be denied he’s going really well. The price does look tempting. but this is the biggest test of his career.
The breakaway isn’t without a chance – UAE will assess how strong it is in the valley and keep it on a tight leash if they think the win is on. Depending on who’s up the road, other teams may also keep the pace on to protect GC places, but it’s worth having a bit on an excellent climber with time on GC just in case.
Valentin Paret-Peintre (7/1; 8.0) has plenty of time on GC and is clearly on stellar form but the price is ridiculous.
Michael Storer (12/1; 13.0) is just over 5mins off the podium which puts him on the bubble of whether he’ll be allowed up the road. If he’s up there and the break contests the stage, then he has a massive chance, but the price looks a bit short considering the caveats.
Einer Rubio (20/1; 21.0) ditto the above but a more attractive price.
Romain Bardet (18/1; 19.0) finds himself far too close on GC considering he’s only really after a stage win. No doubt he’ll try and get up the road but he’s a dangerous rider to let go.
This looks like a GC day and, in that scenario, Pogačar wins but obviously the short price reflects that. Ben O’Connor could well be the best of the rest so is worth a punt at decent odds for the place money. For the break, Einer Rubio will probably give it a nudge, will be favoured by the higher altitude, and has the zip for the final ascent to take it home.
Stage 15 Bets
Ben O’Connor 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1
Einer Rubio 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1
Posted 21:22 BST Sat 18th May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
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