Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 15 – Martos > Sierra Nevada. Alto Hoya de la Mora. Monachil (149.6km)

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Stage 14 Result

1st Richard Carapaz (7/1F)

2nd Miguel Ángel López (33/1)

3rd Primož Roglič (16/1)

Stage 14 Bets

2pts win Mark Padun @12/1

1pt each way (3 places) Rein Taaramäe @20/1

1pt each way (3 places) Thibaut Pinot @18/1

1pt each way (3 places) David de la Cruz @33/1

1pt each way (3 places) Miguel Ángel López @33/1 – 2nd

There was a fierce 80km battle to make the break. Not that we saw any of it of course with no live pictures until two hours after the flag went down, so it’s unclear how many attempts and how close the selections came to making it up the road. As it was, the breakaway riders were all swept up, bar one – Carapaz, who bagged his second win. López is looking better and better – whether he’d have won the sprint with Roglič had it been for the win is debatable.

Stage 15 Preview

Short and containing the only especial-category climb of the race, this stage should be intense, full-gas stuff. Given that the break has now won four of the five mountain stages so far, there’ll be another big fight for it. Things could settle down on the third-category climb 30km in and everyone might catch a breather before a 9.1km first-category test which is followed straight after by the Sierra Nevada summit finish.

This 20km Alto Hoya de la Mora climb is steepest in the first 4km where it rarely drops below double-digits. It’s steadier the rest of the way up but the hard pace and high altitude will be enough to asphyxiate the riders and shell them out the back. So who will be the last man standing?

Stage 15 Contenders

We have a race on our hands. After Remco Evenepoel’s semi-crack on the Sierra de la Pandera on Saturday, Primož Roglič – trailing by just 1min 49secs – is now the slight favourite to win this year’s Vuelta a España.

Jumbo-Visma will smell blood and are sure to turn up the heat on Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl who to be fair looked in control for a large part of stage 14. Chris Harper did a brilliant job for the Dutch team, and no doubt he, Robert Gesink and Rohan Dennis, will be put to work early as they head up the final climb.

Quick-Step have been inclined to allow the break to stay away but this change in dynamic reduces the chance of it contesting the win this time. Still, there’ll be no shortage of riders eager to get in the right move.

It almost seems unfair that Ineos’ Richard Carapaz is allowed to go up the road. Should we have a rule that bars Grand Tour winners from breakaways? Maybe not, but he’s definitely found the legs that were missing for the first week and a half and will be favoured by the high-altitude finish – the Ecuadorian is again fancied at around 8/1 for a third win in four days.

Another who doesn’t mind being up in the clouds is Colombian Miguel Ángel López who is riding into some serious form. López almost landed the (much-needed) 33/1 win for us on stage 14 but there’s nothing like that on offer for this – a very stingy 2/1 or thereabouts is available which, on price, is unbackable.

Although he still doesn’t look on absolute top form, Roglič must be sensing an opportunity to reduce if not eliminate his deficit on the red jersey here. But it’ll be tricky as the gradients are relatively shallow – about 6% – for the final 16km and Evenepoel will be able to measure his effort. In fact, if stage 14 was just a bad day for the Belgian then the 28/1 available on him is decent value. It doesn’t feel like that though; it feels like the winds have changed and they’re blowing behind the Slovenian’s back.

Joäo Almeida ran on well on stage 14 to finish just 19secs behind Roglič and López, and this climb should suit him. No doubt he’ll get dropped at some point, probably on the steeper lower section, before chugging past rider after rider and finishing higher than seemed possible halfway up the mountain. If it comes to a sprint there are few faster and the 33/1 about him looks decent.

As for the break, the usual suspects mentioned in previous posts will be interested. And perhaps add one more – since an excellent podium finish in the Giro d’Italia, Mikel Landa has had some pretty sketchy form but finished well on stage 14, in amongst some top 10 GC chasers. It hasn’t gone unnoticed though and is fourth favourite at 16/1 for this which seems like an overreaction.

Our favourite breakaway pick, Mark Padun, is a bit bigger at 20s but is struggling to hit the right move on the flattish starts. The early climb here will help his chances so let’s go in again on the Ukrainian. He did finish nearer last than first on stage 14 though – saving his legs for this, right?

As well as Carapaz and Landa, other former GC hopefuls have slipped far enough behind to go for breaks. One that sticks out is this year’s Giro d’Italia winner Jai Hindley. He’s clearly not on that kind of form but, assuming he isn’t marked out by teams protecting top 10 places, would be one of the big favourites from the break. Plus, he has a very handy sprint should he arrive with company. The 50/1 is attractive enough to make the selections.

Finally, one more shot for Intermarché’s Rein Taaramäe who again wasn’t far behind the best on stage 14. These big, long climbs are good for the Estonian but, like so many others, has to get in the break first.

So two GC picks and three breakaway hopefuls. Either way, we’re set for a cracker on the Vuelta’s Queen stage and might even see the red jersey change hands!

Stage 15 Bets

3pts win Primož Roglič @9/2

1pt each way (3 places) Joäo Almeida @33/1

1pt each way (3 places) Mark Padun @20/1

1pt each way (3 places) Rein Taaramäe @25/1

1pt each way (3 places) Jai Hindley @40/1

Posted 2044 BST Sat 3rd Sep 2022

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