Tour de France 2024
Stage 15 – Loudenvielle > Plateau de Beille (198km)
Sun 14th July | Scheduled start: 11:55 CET
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Stage 15 Preview
Where: Second day in the Pyrenees.
Stage Type: Mountain, but more mountainy than Saturday.
Weather: Sunny and dry – a bit warmer.
Climbs: Four first-category climbs and an hors-categorie summit finish – over 4,800m of total altitude gain.
Start: Up the first-category Col de Peyresourde (6.9km at 7.9%) from the gun giving pure climbers a great opportunity to get up the road. If the break doesn’t go here, then it definitely will on the tougher first-category Col de Menté (9.3km at 9.1%) which they start 40km in.
Finish: An hors-categorie summit finish to Plateau de Beille (15.8km at 7.9%) which is pretty consistent all the way up but a two kilometre stretch at 9% 6km from the top looks a good place to attack.
Stage suits: GC favourites and climbers.
Breakaway chances: Good. What does Ben Healy have to do to win a stage of the Tour de France? He’s now twice been denied a win by the tactics of UAE Team Emirates. They can do what they want, of course, but surely it’s time to allow a breakaway win – especially on Bastille Day.
What will happen?: The uphill start should ensure a strong break of excellent climbers get up the road. Considering what a success Saturday was, will UAE Team Emirates sense blood and try to put Visma Lease a Bike and Jonas Vingegaard to the sword again? If successful, they could go a long way to putting the Tour to bed. Or will they ride defensively, protect what they’ve got and save energy for the final week. We don’t know, but there must be pressure from other teams to give the break a chance. Unlike in previous years, Visma Lease a Bike don’t have the strength to take the race to Pogačar and to do so could be counterproductive. So again, it’s in the balance between a GC or breakaway win.
Stage 15 Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (7/2; 4.5) is back to being strong odds-on favourite to take his third Tour de France title after his dominant performance on stage 14. Does he now stick or twist? Ride defensively to conserve energy for the final week or try to widen his advantage in case Jonas Vingegaard’s form takes a dramatic upturn? I suspect it might be somewhere in between – not go all in and burn through his troops but put a dig in up the final climb to try to gain more time.
Jonas Vingegaard (4/1; 5.0) had a difficult stage 14, not helped by the moto-pacing that Pogačar benefitted from. Things can change, however, and these longer climbs have definitely been more favourable to Vingegaard than Pogačar over the last couple of years. Needs Van Aert, Kelderman and Jorgenson to be at the very top of their game on Sunday.
Remco Evenepoel (33/1; 34.0) has ridden an excellent, consistent race so far – can he keep it up or will we start to see some cracks?
Carlos Rodríguez (40/1; 41.0) is steadily improving and though a stage win is unlikely, offers the best place value on a final climb that suits.
Breakaway Contenders:
Some riders hanging around the top 10 such as Giulio Ciccone (20/1; 21.0), Derek Gee (66/1; 67.0), Felix Gall (20/1; 21.0) and Santiago Buitrago (20/1; 21.0) may try to infiltrate the break. It’s a risk, as the energy spent could jeopardise their top 10 chances if they don’t pull it off. Any attacks should trigger a domino effect up the standings and be neutralised, but you never know.
Simon Yates (13/2; 7.5) finished only 1min 33secs behind Pogačar on stage 14 showing he’s the best climber outside of GC contention. Has to have a big chance but the price is very short.
Richard Carapaz (9/1; 10.0) was only a minute behind Yates and has been very active. Should make the break and from there could easily finish it off.
Romain Bardet (25/1; 26.0) appeared to cut the engines on Saturday, surely saving himself for a big assault here. Would be great to see Bardet get another stage win in his final Tour de France and this offers him a great opportunity.
Ben Healy (33/1; 34.0) must surely pay for his repeated efforts to win a stage but is clearly in the form of his life. If anyone deserves a win, Healy does.
Stage 15 Bets
Let’s play both scenarios – Carlos Rodríguez is a decent price to make the frame should it come back together. Simon Yates looks a decent shout for the stage win and even though the price is off-putting, needs to be in the pot. Santiago Buitrago could well make the jump into the day’s break and the double Giro d’Italia stage winner has the class to finish it off. Romain Bardet has surely targeted this stage and Ben Healy deserves our loyalty given his near misses.
Carlos Rodríguez 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1
Simon Yates 2pts win @13/2
Santiago Buitrago 1pt each way (4 places) @18/1
Romain Bardet 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1
Ben Healy 0.5pts each way (4 places) @28/1
Posted 21:40 BST Sat 13th July 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 15 Result
1st Tadej Pogačar (7/2F)
2nd Jonas Vingegaard (4/1)
3rd Remco Evenepoel (33/1)
4th Mikel Landa (80/1)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
