Tour de France 2022

Stage 15 – Rodez > Carcassonne (202.5km)

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Stage 14 Result

1st Michael Matthews (150/1)

2nd Alberto Bettiol (33/1)

3rd Thibaut Pinot (25/1)

4th Marc Soler (150/1)

Stage 14 Bets

1pt win Lennard Kämna @12/1

1pt each way (4 places) Max Schachmann @22/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Alberto Bettiol @33/1 – 2nd

0.5pts each way (4 places) Valentin Madouas @33/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Dylan van Baarle @80/1

Bettiol looked like he had that – chapeau to Matthews, a great ride. On the others, Kämna was in the front group and marked moves for Großschartner ahead but on the last climb didn’t have it, which was a surprise. Both Madouas and Van Baarle were in an early break that was scuppered when Pogačar put the squeeze on an isolated Vingegaard, and Schachmann got caught in a split behind the peloton when the breaks were going. Another near miss but still in the black overall.

Total Stakes: 69.0pts; P/L +7.9pts (+11.4%).

Stage 15 Preview

The sprinters get another opportunity but, as on stage 13, it won’t be easy to control. It’s up and down for the first 50km where a strong break could get clear. After that there are two classified climbs and a number of potential launchpads for attacks in the final third of the race before a downhill run to the finish in Carcassonne.

Should it come to a sprint, there’s a left-hander with 700m to go where positioning will be key followed by a sweeping bend at 250m where the fast men will be kicking out for the win. A heads-up also that due to the high temperatures forecast, the Extreme Weather Protocol could be triggered and the stage shortened significantly.

Stage 15 Contenders

This finish has been used a few times, most recently last year when Mark Cavendish equalled Eddy Merckx’s record of 34 Tour de France stage wins. Third that day – behind Cavendish’s leadout man Michael Mørkøv – was Jasper Philipsen. Things haven’t quite fallen for Philipsen in the Tour so far. He had his as arms in the air on the stage to Calais, wrongly as it turned out, and then things conspired against him on stage 13 to prevent it coming back together for a bunch sprint, despite a great effort from his Alpecin-Deceuninck teammates.

The Belgian team won the first sprint stage of every Grand Tour in 2021 but are still without a win in this year’s Grande Boucle. With Mathieu van der Poel leaving the race early, Philipsen is their best shot and will be desperate to make the most of one of the few opportunities left before Paris. Philipsen is the second favourite at around 13/2.

So Alpecin will definitely ride, but they’ll need help – who else could lend a hand? The favourite for the stage, as with a lot of stages, is Wout van Aert at 11/2 but Jumbo-Visma won’t put their shoulders to the wheel for 200km. Should the break come back then Van Aert will take his chance, otherwise they’ll keep their troops around the yellow jersey.

Again, the stage is also really good for Christophe Laporte. He didn’t seem to be on the front of the Jumbo train quite as much as usual on stage 14. Were they giving him a day off in order to attack here? Or was he just knackered? The day before the final rest day would seem the last chance to play his card and is worth an interest at 66/1.

BikeExchange-Jayco will be buzzing after Michael Matthews’ brilliant win on stage 14. I think they will ride to set up Dylan Groenewegen who has been getting over the lumpy stuff pretty well. Perhaps his trip to the Critérium du Dauphiné was actually good prep in the end. He’s around the 9/1 mark. But if he does get distanced then Matthews or even Luka Mezgec are good backups.

Caleb Ewan’s luckless run continued as he banged his knee up in a fall on stage 13. He finished almost 40mins down on stage 14 but is still in the race. His aim now will be to recover as much as possible before Paris and the Champs-Élysées sprint. They may try to target the breakaway here – perhaps with Brent van Moer or maybe even Andreas Kron again who was unlucky with an untimely puncture on stage 14.

Stage 13 winner Mads Pedersen had diamonds in his legs and looked unbeatable that day. If that form has held then he has another big chance either in the sprint or again from the breakaway. He’s third favourite at around 13/2.

Based on what we’ve seen this week, Fabio Jakobsen could struggle over the hills and does not appeal at all at the 11/1 available. It’ll be interesting to see if QuickStep-Alpha Vinyl even bother helping out the chase. They may prefer to infiltrate the break with someone like Florian Sénéchal or even Jakobsen’s wingman Mørkøv who, as revealed in extracts from his book, had the legs to win the sprint into Carcassonne last year, before allowing Cavendish to pass.

That 20km downhill run into town looks primed for an attack by descending specialist Matej Mohorič. We’ve seen him off the front a couple of times but the Bahrain Victorious man has been nowhere near as active or as effective as we’re used to, and that puts me off him at the stingy 20/1 available.

Similar to Alpecin, Bora-hansgrohe are also without a win despite being in the mix on several occasions. They have a couple of quality cards to play here – German champion Nils Politt was in an early move that didn’t stick on stage 13 but this terrain is perfect for the strong rouleur.

But I prefer his teammate Danny van Poppel at five times the price. In the absence of Sam Bennett, Van Poppel is Bora’s designated sprinter, but he lacks the top end speed of the pure fast men. So a stage like this which will take the edge of those speeds is good for him. He finished fifth into Carcassonne last year and has already showed his form with a fourth in the sprint on stage 2.

Due to the lack of sprint teams that will be willing to control as well as the severe heat, this one is probably tilted towards the breakaway which opens up the field to dozens of potential winners. However, we have the caveat that the stage could be shortened which would shift the balance back towards the sprinters.

As it’s a bit up in the air, let’s have a sprint option and some fun breakaway or even reduced sprint selections at big prices.

Stage 15 Bets

2pts win Jasper Philipsen @13/2

0.5pts each way (4 places) Christophe Laporte @66/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Danny van Poppel @100/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Brent van Moer @250/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Luka Mezgec @200/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Michael Mørkøv @300/1

Posted 2048 BST Sat 16th July 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker