Stage 15 – Rivarolo Canavese > Cogne (178km)

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Stage 14 Result

1st Simon YATES (4/1F)

2nd Jai HINDLEY (50/1)

3rd Richard CARAPAZ (20/1)

4th Vincenzo NIBALI (40/1)

Stage 14 Bets

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Pello Bilbao 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1 

David de la Cruz 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Mauro Schmid 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Natnael Tesfatsion 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Jhonatan Narváez 0.25pts each way (4 places) @600/1

Chapeau-meter

Not quite what I ordered that – what a bonkers stage! Bora blew the race to bits with almost 80km to go and killed off any chance of a breakaway win. As it was, all of the wrong men were up the road anyway – Dombrowski instead of De la Cruz, Ciccone instead of Mollema, who also had a spill, and Knox instead of Schmid, who got pooped out the back pretty early – best to leave him alone for a while. Tesfatsion – who followed a lot of early breakaway moves – had a mechanical at the bottom of the first climb and that was him gone. Narváez was with Carapaz and then suddenly was in a chasing group behind, so can only assume he also suffered an untimely mechanical. Who knows? He could’ve sneaked a fourth place at 600s and saved the day.

Stage 15 Preview

A proper big mountain day in the Alps, so with clear skies it should at least look appealing to the viewer, if not to those who have to ride it. The route contains three classified climbs – two first and one second – all packed into the second half of the 178km route. The final ascent to the summit in Cogne, although long at 22.4km, has only shallow gradients after a small 11% section a couple of kilometres in, which will make it difficult to forge gaps. So the decisive moves could be made on the toughest of the climbs – the middle one up to Verrogne – which averages 7.1% for almost 14km.

Contenders

Ordinarily, a summit finish before a rest day would be titled towards a GC stage win as they leave it all on the pitch and test the vulnerabilities of rivals. It’s not so certain here, especially with the last climb offering so little in opportunities for attacks, so we’ll have to play both hands – breakaway and GC favourites – for the victory.

We simply don’t know how aggressively this stage will be ridden by GC teams. Stage 14 was a brutal day for everyone and we may see something of a Mexican standoff. 

This is also a big day for the maglia azzurra with nearly 100 points on offer, so we’re certain to see those with eyes on that prize to try to get up the road, namely Diego Rosa, Koen Bouwman and Lennard Kämna. There’s sure to be a certain amount of marking between the three, so they’ll either all get up the road or none of them. They all look strong, though you have to factor in the energy expended to fight for the points at each summit – will that cost them victory?

Getting in the breakaway won’t be straightforward though – when is it ever? The road rises for the first 9km and may help a move go clear, but after that it’s just a shallow drag uphill for the next 40-odd kilometres, and then you’ll need a spot of luck to follow the right move.

Astana-Qazaqstan’s Joe Dombrowski was impressive again on Saturday and would’ve been fancied to finish it off had the break stayed away. Though I’d rather he hadn’t boxed on for a top 20 finish when the break was caught – he could’ve saved his legs for this. Apparently, his family and friends will be at the summit finish – what better motivation to get in the break again? He’s in at 28/1.

Though much too short to back given the variables (and there ended up being a lot more variables than anticipated), Simon Yates was mustard in the final to win stage 14. That dodgy knee has certainly improved. It’ll have taken a lot out of him, but who’s to say he can’t double up. He’s the favourite again at around 13/2. Probably best left till next week now though. Lucas Hamilton could be the chosen one for BikeExchange. 

Now that Trek-Segafredo are no longer in pink they can chase some stage wins so expect Giulio Ciccone, Bauke Mollema and perhaps Mattias Skjelmose Jensen to try for the break. Ciccone was the most active we’ve seen him so far this Giro on stage 14 and may be riding into form but still looks vulnerable, Mollema rode strongly too but apparently had a fall somewhere off camera and could be nursing some bruises come Sunday morning. Skjelmose also came down a week or so ago and we haven’t seen much of him since. In short, there are doubts around all three. 

It’s tricky to know if Davide Formolo will be held back to help João Almeida, as he was on Blockhaus, or given a pass for the break. It’s dangerous to leave the Italian out, especially on these longer climbs that are his strength, but it could be for nought. 

On Almeida, these climbs favour his diesel engine and he would have a sprint to finish it off if a group comes in together. That said, his descending will have to improve from stage 14 to even contest the final. Clearly, Jai Hindley has the proverbial diamonds in his legs right now and it would be interesting to see a straight sprint between the Aussie and Almeida. Throw in Pello Bilbao, Richard Carapaz and Alejandro Valverde and it could be a tight one. But we’ll take Hindley as the GC saver.  

I’m willing to give Natnael Tesfatsion another go at triple-figure odds. He was luckless with a mechanical before the first climb of the day on stage 14, though at least he saved his legs by failing to get into a doomed breakaway. He was looking sprightly beforehand though and it would be great to see what he can do in the really high stuff.

Stage 15 Bets

Lennard Kämna 2pts win @14/1

Koen Bouwman 1pt each way (3 places) @28/1

Joe Dombrowski 1pt each way (3 places) @28/1

Davide Formolo 1pt win @20/1

Natnael Tesfatsion 0.5pts each way (3 places) @150/1

Jai Hindley 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Posted 21.39 BST Sat 21st May 2022

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