Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 14 – Sauveterre-de-Béarn > Larra-Belagua (156.5km)

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Stage 13 Result

1st Jonas Vingegaard (4/1JF)

2nd Sepp Kuss (16/1)

3rd Primož Roglič (4/1JF)

4th Juan Ayuso (14/1)

Stage 13 Bets

Primož Roglič 3pts win @4/1 – 3rd

Michael Storer 1pt each way (3 places) @18/1

Santiago Buitrago 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Steff Cras 0.5pts each way (4 places) @150/1 – 9th

A Jumbo-Visma 1-2-3 on the stage and now filling all of the GC podium places too. Impressive stuff. That was always the risk – that Vingegaard or Kuss would attack and nobody could follow leaving Roglič, who still looks the strongest rider, forced to cover moves behind. Buitrago, Cras and Storer were all good enough to be in the front group but it needed to be a breakaway rather than with the GC players, though a break was never going to get any rope with Evenepoel struggling off the back anyway.

Stage 14 Preview

Another big day in the mountains as the peloton makes its way back over the border into Spain. The demanding parcours includes two especial-category climbs – Col Hourcére (11.1km at 8.7%) and Puerto de Larrau (14.9km at 8%) – before ending with a summit finish up Puerto de Belagua (9.5km at 6.3%).

By the numbers, the middle climb is the toughest and the final one is the ‘easiest’, especially in the final few kilometres where it levels off. Given that, together with the race situation where nobody can lay a glove on Jumbo-Visma, the stage is very much tilted towards a breakaway win.

Lighter climbers may need to piggyback off a rouleur teammate to get up the road on the flattish opening 40km and we may see a mega-break get clear. After that, it should be down to the best climbing legs.

Stage 14 Contenders

Michael Storer (6/1; 7.00) looked in great form on stage 13 and mopped up a number of mountains points in a bid to repeat his win in that competition two years ago. He seems certain to be in the break, but will the effort exerted to win those points hamper his chances of the stage win? Ordinarily yes, but in this case both goals can be achieved. Having the legs is the most important thing and Storer appears to have them right now.

Romain Bardet (8/1; 9.00) was active right from the start on stage 13, pushing for the early moves. In the end, knowing the break wouldn’t make it, Bardet saved his legs and rolled in 24mins down. That saved energy could help him here.

Wout Poels (14/1; 15.00), like Bardet, was present in a nascent move that ultimately failed to stay clear. The veteran Dutchman has every chance to double up on his Grand Tour victories this season after his win on Mont Blanc in the Tour.

Remco Evenepoel (16/1; 17.00) is now completely out of the GC picture having finished 27mins down on stage 13 with seemingly no explanation beyond being empty with no legs. A man of Evenepoel’s talent could of course go and win this from a break, but it would be a leap in the dark to put him up, especially at that shortish price.

Lennard Kämna (16/1; 17.00) has his win and appeared to save his legs somewhat on the Tourmalet stage. In preparation for this or beginning to suffer? It’s difficult to say, but the start is favourable for him to make the break.

Santiago Buitrago (20/1; 21.00) stayed with the group of favourites for a long way up the final climb in support of Mikel Landa. If in the break, he’s sure to be one of the strongest. Buitrago has won for us before and can do it again.

Juan Pedro López (40/1; 41.00) must have yoyo-ed off the back of the front group a dozen times before finally getting dropped – very tenacious. The other ‘El Patrón’ doesn’t win much which makes the price look a bit short, but did hold the maglia rosa in the Giro d’Italia for ten stages last year.

Christián Rodríguez (40/1; 41.00) came into the race still feeling the effects of Covid but has ridden aggressively and been active in a number of attempted and successful breaks. He’s sure to go again and could be one of the best up there.

Hugh Carthy (33/1; 34.00) is now firmly out of the GC picture, over 9mins down, but is riding into some form. Some riders protecting a top 10 status may be keeping an eye on him, however, which could prevent him making the break.

David de la Cruz (66/1; 67.00) is in a similar position to Carthy – just outside the top 10, over 9mins down. It’s been a while since the Spaniard won anything this big and he may prefer to stay with the GC group, but the price is decent.

Steff Cras (66/1; 67.00) was a pick for stage 13 at twice the odds and didn’t disappoint – shame he wasn’t in a breakaway. Ditto above on whether a move might trigger some marking, but the Belgian should go for it as he has the legs for a stage win.

If it comes back together then Jumbo-Visma probably decide who wins, but Primož Roglič (11/1; 12.00) is the most likely given the finish. However, this looks like one for the breakaway, so let’s go all-in with these fellas:

Stage 14 Bets

Santiago Buitrago 2pts each way (4 places) @20/1

Hugh Carthy 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Christián Rodríguez 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1

David de la Cruz 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Steff Cras 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Posted 22:18 BST Fri 8th Sept 2023

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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