Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 15 – Seregno > Bergamo (195km)

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Stage 14 Result

1st Nico Denz (33/1)

2nd Derek Gee (33/1)

3rd Alberto Bettiol (12/1)

4th Laurenz Rex (33/1)

Stage 14 Bets

Toms Skujiņš 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1 – 6th

Simon Clarke 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Andrea Pasqualon 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1

Will Barta 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Marco Frigo 0.25pts each way (4 places) @250/1

That looked very promising but in the end a near miss with Skujiņš, Ballerini and Oldani caught 300m before the line. Four of the five selections made the mega-break but Barta worked in the services of Gaviria, Pasqualon was left frustrated and Clarke had Gee (that man again!) up the road.

Stage 15 Preview

This has very much a one-day classic profile about it – up and down with some sharp gradients and even some pavé thrown in. Starting just 26km from the flag-drop, the first-category Valico di Valcava is a serious climb of 11.6km at 8% with a 3km section near the top averaging over 11% – it’s here that a strong break of puncheur-climbers should get clear.

The second-category Roncola Alta touches 17% near the bottom and peaks out just 30km from home – it’s here that the race winning move could be made. If not, there’s cruel double-digit rise inside the last 5km to make another selection. Over the lip, it’s a downhill run to the line.  

With this terrain in front of them and a rest day on Monday, we should definitely see some moves within the favourites group. But two races in one seems the most likely with the breakaway favourite to take the day.

Stage 15 Contenders

Tough stages just before a rest day often mean a GC dust-up and if it kicks off early, it could threaten the break from winning the stage. The stiff opening climb is also perfect ground for riders in and around the top 10 on general classification to infiltrate the break. This will put pressure on teams behind and jeopardize its chances of succeeding.

EF Education-Easypost’s Ben Healy will have circled this stage in the roadbook as another big opportunity for a stage win. These longer climbs might not be ideal for him and he’s plenty short enough at just 7/1, but it’s difficult to ignore that performance on stage 8 when he was untouchable.

Healy’s teammate, Magnus Cort, would ordinarily be a prime candidate for something like this, however, he declared in an interview before stage 14 that he’s been really suffering and needs time to recover. It pays to be skeptical about these things, but it seems genuine and his triple-figure price reflects that.

What are UAE Team Emirates’ tactics going to be? They have a potential Giro d’Italia winner in Joäo Almeida sitting just 22secs off the lead (taking current pink jersey wearer Bruno Armirail out the equation) and yet Davide Formolo was away in the break on stage 12, Jay Vine, whose devotion to the cause has to be in question following his pre-race interview on Friday, and Brandon McNulty, who came here stage hunting, but doing a lot of the mountain domestique work.

Surely they need to get behind the team leader and give him their full support. McNulty and Vine, however, continue to be short prices and justifiably so as if they’re given a pass to go forward would be amongst the favourites to win. But the lack of clarity over team roles make them somewhat unbackable.

Jumbo-Visma’s Primož Roglič seemed strangely downbeat ahead of Saturday’s stage, saying he’s not feeling 100% following his crash on stage 11 which left him needing stitches on his hip. But is he really suffering or is it a bit of bluff? We should find out here on a parcours where he should excel. His comments have probably pushed his price out a couple of points, which could be value, unless he really is struggling. Who knows? But best to stay on the right side of Rog for now.

Giro runner-up two years ago, Damiano Caruso, looks a serious podium threat again and clearly has great legs. He should be challenging if it all comes back together. But his teammate, Santiago Buitrago, is a bit nipper up steep gradients and is perfect for this. At around 5mins off the ‘real’ GC, he may be one of those trying to make the break and may be given a bit of rope. A late attack also can’t be ruled out.

Thibaut Pinot had diamonds in his legs on stage 13 but unfortunately burnt too many matches on the final climb and in the end got turned over. He’s a stage winner waiting to happen but is now less than 4mins behind Geraint Thomas. He’s too dangerous to be allowed back in the GC game but will want to get up the road not just for the chance of a stage win, but to get back in the blue jersey.  And if he attacks the first climb with the same aggression that he showed on stage 13, he’ll be difficult to stop. This could cause chaos behind but should be a good watch!  

Stage 15 Bets

Ben Healy 2pts win @7/1

Primož Roglič 1pt win @10/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Posted 22.11 BST 20th May 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker