Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 15 – Infiesto > Valgrande-Pajares. Cuitu Negru (143km)
Sun 1st Sep | KM0: 13:51 CET
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Where: Cantabrian Mountains in Asturias, northern Spain.
Stage Type: Mountain.
Weather: Around 20˚Cs, dropping as they go higher with a chance of rain.
Climbs: The first-category Alto de la Colladiella (6.4km at 8.2%) is tackled twice with a third-category ascent sandwiched between them before the summit finish especial-category climb up Cuitu Negru (18.9km at 7.4%).
Start: Uphill for the first 20km then down to the foot of the first ascent of Alto de la Colladiella where the day’s break should form.
Finish: The Cuitu Negru climb is an absolute brute with the toughest section near the top – the final 3km average 13% and touch a leg-breaking 24% in parts.
Stage suits: GC favourites and other GC-level climbers.
Breakaway chances: Unlikely but not impossible. Any break will need upwards of 5mins at the foot of the final climb to have any chance of staying away and stages before rest days on prestigious climbs tend to be taken by the GC favourites. However, as we saw on stage 13, no team seems confident enough to take the reigns early so a break could be given enough time to stay away.
What will happen?: A decent-sized group will get clear on the first climb, probably including some GC satellite riders, there to help their leaders deeper into the race. With O’Connor looking vulnerable, Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe will drive a hard pace, perhaps even on the second ascent of the Alto de la Colladiella, before setting up Roglič for an attack on Cuitu Negru. The stage will most likely end with a winner from the GC favourites.
Stage 15 Contenders
Primož Roglič (4/1) put his GC rivals to the sword on stage 13 with a very impressive display and is now odds-on to win this year’s Vuelta. We can expect Red Bull to set him up for something similar here and, unless we see a big drop off in form, may well end the day in red.
Enric Mas (14/1) lost a minute to Roglič on stage 13 and now finds himself fighting to secure a podium spot. Had he not tried to follow the Slovenian’s wheel however, he would’ve finished a lot closer and so probably remains the second-best climber in the race. It’s a leap of faith to predict Mas could turn the tables on Roglič here but not impossible given that he seemed to have his number for the first part of the race.
Sepp Kuss (20/1) also paid for trying to stay with Roglič but still produced a solid performance after a disappointing first week. The steep gradients suit Kuss and, at 7mins 28secs behind on GC, might even try to sneak into the break.
Mikel Landa (28/1) has been solid without ever looking like beating Roglič and this consistency could well see him end the Vuelta on the podium.
Richard Carapaz (28/1) is showing his typical battling qualities and is also in the mix for a podium spot.
Mattias Skjelmose (33/1) was only headed by Roglič and Landa on stage 13 and his form looks on the upturn after struggling in the first week.
Carlos Rodríguez (50/1) will no doubt pace his effort well which could see him make the frame at an attractive price.
For the breakaway:
Michael Woods (14/1) loves a steep climb so would be a short price if the break stays clear. It’s tricky to judge his level, however, as his biggest dangers when he won stage 13 – Jay Vine and Brandon McNulty – both crashed. Israel Premier Tech teammate Matthew Riccitello (20/1) has been quiet since a fall in the first week but didn’t finish too far behind the favourites on stage 13 indicating a return to the form he showed on stage 6.
UAE Team Emirates will have representation in the break. Brandon McNulty (50/1) came down hard on stage 13 though apparently has only superficial wounds. Still, he’s probably best left out the pot. So too Jay Vine (20/1) who fell less hard but still hobbled away before remounting.
Isaac del Toro (40/1) was in the break on stage 14 but dropped out of it – bad form or saving his legs? Had Covid only a few days ago which doesn’t instil confidence for this. And of course Marc Soler (50/1) who will probably be in the break, attack a dozen times, get dropped by better climbers then somehow finish fourth.
Max Poole (14/1) could well be the best climber outside of GC contention and, assuming he’s recovered from his big days out on stage 11 and 12, is sure to be up the road.
Jack Haig (20/1) looks short in price considering we haven’t seen him much but is of course a quality climber on his day.
Eddie Dunbar (16/1) could leapfrog into the top 10 as well as be a player for the stage win if in the break. His presence may also scupper its chances, however.
Lorenzo Fortunato (33/1) has been pretty anonymous and although his quality is not in doubt, the lack of visibility puts you off as a punting option.
Stage 15 Bets
After the disappointment of stage 13, some of the pressure is now off Enric Mas and that may help him. Granted it would be a big turnaround and Roglič would need to have an off-day, but on balance he probably offers a bit more value than the Slovenian.
Though a win seems a stretch, white jersey wearer Carlos Rodríguez is getting better and better and looks overpriced to pocket some place money.
And should the break stay away, let’s go in again with Max Poole to land a breakthrough win.
All in all a big day and one not to be missed.
Enric Mas 1pt each way (4 places) @12/1 – 4th
Carlos Rodríguez 1pt each way (4 places) @50/1
Max Poole 1pt each way (3 places) @14/1
Posted 21:43 BST Sat 31st Aug 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 15 Result
1st Pablo Castrillo (80/1)
2nd Aleksandr Vlasov (100/1)
3rd Pavel Sivakov (80/1)
4th Enric Mas (12/1)
[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
