Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 16 – Luanco > Lagos de Covadonga (181km)
Tue 3rd Sep | KM0: 12:59 CET
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Stage 16 Preview
Where: Starts on the coast near Gijón in Asturias and goes east to the Picos de Europa mountain range.
Stage Type: Mountain.
Weather: Just below 20˚C and rainy.
Climbs: Three classified climbs and almost 4,000m of elevation gain. The first-category Mirador del Fito (7.1km at 7.9%) is tackled after 70km followed by the first-category Callada Llamena (7.6km at 9.3%). The stage ends with the especial-category climb up to the Lagos de Covadonga (12.5km at 6.9%).
Start: A couple of unclassified climbs in the first 50km may help the break to form, otherwise it’ll go on the Mirador del Fito.
Finish: The Lagos de Covadonga climb contains a couple of short descents near the top which skews the overall percentage down to around 7%, but the opening 6km average 9.8% and peak at 16% which is more than enough to do plenty of damage.
Stage suits: GC favourites and GC-level climbers not in overall contention.
Breakaway chances: 50/50. No team seems to be willing or able to take the race up early meaning breaks have won their fair share of stages. That may happen again, but they’ll need a decent head start as the final climb is tough.
What will happen?: There should be enough lumps for the break to establish itself before the first categorized climb. Assuming no GC threats are up the road, Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale will ride a sensible pace. Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe are likely to wait until the last 40km or so before taking over to set up Primož Roglič on the Covadonga climb. It’s possible we’ll see two races in one with the stage win from the breakaway, followed by a GC fight behind.
Stage 16 Contenders
Primož Roglič (9/2; 5.5) was docked 20secs for excessive drafting behind the team car on stage 15 and is now 1min 3secs behind Ben O’Connor. Attacked impressively on Cuitu Negru but was caught and overhauled by Enric Mas so not looking completely invincible. Is a past winner on this same finish, though.
Enric Mas (12/1) rode Cuitu Negru much better than he did Puerto de Ancaras two days previously, pacing his effort to maximise his result and only unusual race dynamics stopped a potential stage win. Roglič will launch hard again but if he keeps his head, Mas can stay with the Slovenian and at worst help cement a podium position.
Mattias Skjelmose (20/1) is in a big fight with Florian Lipowitz and Carlos Rodríguez for the white jersey – only 18secs separate the three. Has finished third amongst the GC contenders on the last two summit finishes.
Richard Carapaz (33/1) is very much in the mix for a podium spot and will be there or thereabouts. A late attack once the steep sections are behind them could be the Ecuadorian’s best chance of victory.
Sepp Kuss (33/1) has performed well up to Covadonga before and is definitely riding into some better form, finishing fifth amongst the GC men on Sunday. At over 7mins down on GC, he could try for the break but will surely be a marked man.
Carlos Rodríguez (50/1) struggled on the steep gradients of Cuitu Negru but should do better on these slightly more forgiving slopes. Lacks support from Ineos Grenadiers whose best climbers have gone home but again, the price looks attractive for place money.
For the breakaway:
Max Poole (10/1) bridged impressively to the break that looked set on stage 15 only for it to be ruined by UAE Team Emirates and their scattergun tactics. Will be kicking himself for not going again as the next break, somehow, won the day. Seems to still have great legs though that price is plenty short enough.
Jay Vine (12/1) was favourite in-running on stage 15 before his own team chased the break down. He then had to work for Pavel Sivakov (33/1) all day so had fair reason to be annoyed. Didn’t seem too affected by his spill on stage 14 and is chasing mountains points so seems sure to be up the road again if he can.
Eddie Dunbar (14/1) has competed well with the GC favourites on the last two mountain stages and may want to test his legs against the best again. It also makes him a big weapon from the break.
Pablo Castrillo (18/1) has emerged from nowhere to become a bit of a superstar. He won’t be underestimated or get away with any fakery from now on though.
Felix Gall (22/1) lost over 25mins on stage 15 and is out of the GC picture so he can now put his weight fully behind O’Connor or chase a stage victory. The former seems the most obvious thing to do, though Gall clearly has his own ambitions so who knows?
Michael Woods (28/1) has his stage win though may be in stronger company if in the break again. Israel Premier Tech teammate Matthew Riccitello (50/1) may offer a bit more value if he’s fully recovered from his earlier crash.
Stage 16 Bets
In the balance this one – it all depends on who’s in the break and tactics behind. Despite the short price, let’s go in again with Max Poole from the breakaway to get the win his form deserves. Whilst Matthew Riccitello could also go well at a decent price.
Should it come back together, there may be somewhat of a regrouping towards the line. In which case, Mattias Skjelmose is a handy card given his fast finish.
Max Poole 2pts to win @10/1 – 3rd
Mattias Skjelmose 2pts to win and 4 places @20/1
Matthew Riccitello 1pt to win and 4 places @50/1 – 8th
Posted 19:19 BST Mon 2nd Sep 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 16 Result
1st Marc Soler (50/1)
2nd Filippo Zana (200/1)
3rd Max Poole (10/1)
4th Jay Vine (12/1)
[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
