Tour de France 2023

Stage 16 – Passy > Combloux (22.3km)

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Stage 15 Result

1st Wout Poels (50/1)

2nd Wout van Aert (28/1)

3rd Mathieu Burgaudeau (150/1)

4th Lawson Craddock (300/1)

Stage 15 Bets

Michael Woods 1pt each way (4 places) @12/1

Mattias Skjelmose 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Jonathan Castroviejo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Yet another big-priced winner. Skjelmose made the break but burnt too many matches driving it forward to keep Ciccone in position for KOM points and finished a disappointing eighth. Woods was also in there but fell away tamely, presumably his day out on stage 14 left a mark and, with Rodríguez in third, it’s looking like Castroviejo isn’t going to get a chance to ride for himself (not until he’s left out of the stage picks anyway!).

Stage 16 Preview

A day after the second and final rest day, the riders tackle the only time trial kilometres in this year’s edition of the Tour de France. It’s not too long at just over 22km but there’s a nasty kick near the end with the second-category Côte de Domancy, also known as the Route Bernard Hinault to honour where ‘the Badger’ went solo to win the 1980 world championship road race.

The climb measures 2.5km at 9.4% but the stage doesn’t end at the top – there’s a levelling off before a further 2km 6% rise up to the finish in Combloux. This kicker tilts the stage in favour of the GC favourites rather than the time trial specialists or rouleurs.

Stage 16 Contenders

Tadej Pogačar (5/4) and Jonas Vingegaard (7/5) were very evenly matched over the trio of mountain stages preceding stage 16, and the markets suggest there shouldn’t be a whole lot between them in the time trial either.

With only 10secs separating the two on GC, neither can afford to have post-rest day legs. A significant loss of time here could end their chances of winning the Tour de France.

Vingegaard finished second at the Critérium du Dauphiné time trial last month, beaten by Pogačar’s teammate Mikkel Bjerg (200/1), though that was a largely flat test. He would’ve won the final time trial at last year’s Tour had he not eased up in the final few kilometres to give Wout van Aert (6/1) the stage win.

Van Aert was a strong favourite in-running to get his and Jumbo-Visma’s first stage win on Sunday but was surprisingly put to the sword by Wout Poels. The Belgian champion has won the final time trial at the last two Tours, though, as said, last year’s victory was somewhat gifted to him.

Pogačar’s only individual time trial this season was the Slovenian national championships which he won by over 5mins, so not much we can read into that Famously, he won the stage 20 time trial to La Planche des Belles Filles in 2020 by over a minute to overturn Primož Roglič’s lead and win his first Tour title.

At the end of the day, however, previous results aren’t going to count for much here. We know they’re both excellent time triallists and the best two climbers in the world. It’s all about the legs.  

Adam Yates (25/1) is now favourite to take the third step on the podium in Paris, so will be motivated not to lose time to his rivals. His time trial results are mixed, though a recent eighth at the Tour de Romandie followed by third at the Dauphiné show a line of improvement. Both of those races were won by teammates with a further rider making it three in the top 10 displaying how much focus UAE Team Emirates put on the discipline.

Carlos Rodríguez (80/1) is Yates’ main competitor for third on GC, sitting just 19secs ahead of the Brit. Ineos Grenadiers’ general manager, Rod Ellingworth, spoke of how Rodríguez had ‘gone up another gear’ following his stage win on Saturday and how, despite some excellent TT results, can put in the odd ‘shocker’. The higher gradients on the climb are probably not ideal for him, but a top 3 is possible given his form.

Mattias Skjelmose (66/1) was second at the Danish TT championships on a flat course which followed up his third at the Tour de Suisse which secured the overall win. His eighth on stage 15 was a little disappointing (especially as he was a stage pick) but he boxed on well after being dropped early on the final climb.

Specialist time triallists Rémi Cavagna (80/1) and Stefan Küng (150/1), though solid climbers, are likely to lose chunks of time on the uphill finish, and both haven’t shown a great deal in the Tour either.

Elsewhere, Fred Wright (175/1) could go well but went down hard in the mass crash on stage 14 that neutralised the race, so perhaps best dodged for this one.

It’s almost certain to be a battle between the big two, but third is up for grabs and these two look decent value.

Stage 16 Bets

Carlos Rodríguez Top 3 1pt win @6/1

Mattias Skjelmose Top 3 0.5pts win @20/1

Posted 18:50 BST 17th July 2023

Prices (in brackets) to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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