Tour de France 2024

Stage 16 – Gruissan > Nîmes (189km)

Tue 16th July | Scheduled start: 13:05 CET

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Stage 16 Preview

Where: Travelling northeast, past Montpellier in southern France.

Stage Type: Flat.

Weather: Hot, over 30˚ and dry.

Climbs: Just the one fourth-category climb (1.2km at 5%) though the unclassified rise 20km prior looks tougher. Nothing close to the start or finish to complicate things though.

Start: Rolling for the first 50km – possible for some strong rouleurs to get ahead but probably not.

Finish: A sweeping left 2.5km out, over two roundabouts then another just 350m from the line where a good position will be vital.

Stage suits: Sprinters.

Breakaway chances: Low but not zero. Despite the flat profile, there’s always a chance of a breakaway win this deep into a Grand Tour due to the fatigue in the peloton. If a strong group gets ahead, there may not be the resources amongst depleted sprint teams to bring them back. This would be exacerbated if a couple of them infiltrate the move and remove their responsibility for the chase.

What will happen?: Due to the Paris Olympics, there’s no Champs-Élysées stage to conclude this year’s Tour de France so this is the sprinters’ final opportunity and they’re unlikely to let it slip. A small breakaway will form, it’s controlled by sprint teams (eg. Alpecin-Deceuninck, Jayco-AlUla, possibly Arkéa-Samsic and Israel-Premier Tech) and is brought back for a traditional bunch finish.

Stage 16 Contenders

Jasper Philipsen (7/5; 2.4) launched from a fair distance back to win the reduced sprint impressively after a tough stage 13. Will have dealt with the subsequent mountains better than many of his rivals. Despite a disappointing start, Philipsen is a strong favourite to get a third stage win (and ninth Tour de France win in total).

Biniam Girmay (11/2; 6.5) has three stage wins and is safe in the green jersey assuming he completes the race. For once, got a bit boxed in on stage 13 and only managed fourth. Intermarché-Wanty’s leadout has been super strong and can be even more dominant with a tiring peloton, that could be crucial with the roundabouts in the last 2km.

Wout van Aert (13/2; 7.5) had a heavy fall on stage 11 and declared that he’d need a couple of days to recover. Promptly finished second on the next two stages, the first of which he probably would’ve won had Arnaud Démare not squeezed him into the barriers. Van Aert was 25/1 for stage 12, 12/1 for stage 13 and now his price has halved again which doesn’t appeal so much.

Dylan Groenewegen (12/1; 13.0) probably had the legs to do better than his ninth on stage 12 but got boxed in. Hasn’t really challenged since his win in the first week and the tough mountain stages over the weekend won’t have helped him.

Mark Cavendish (18/1; 19.0) was relegated for a wild swing left to avoid Démare’s leadout man Dan McClay on stage 12. Suffered through the mountains and squeezed inside the revised time cut on stage 15. Has a puncher’s chance on a parcours that suits if recovered well in what will be his final Tour de France sprint.

Arnaud De Lie (22/1; 23.0) had a great chance in the reduced sprint on stage 13 but was caught up behind a crash inside the last 700m. Has been a bit short in these flat finishes but has been active in moves off the front which shows his legs are still good and the price looks decent.

Pascal Ackermann (22/1; 23.0) has finished third in the last three sprint stages so can argue that the price is generous. Surviving the mountains will have been no bother and could be getting stronger as others tire.

Arnaud Démare (50/1; 51.0) looked the winner 50m from home on stage 12 but was third over the line and subsequently relegated for closing the door on Van Aert. Grovelled home in last on stage 15, just 45secs inside the time cut and on that basis is difficult to fancy.

Stage 16 Bets

Can make a case for a few – Arnaud De Lie is tempting at the price though it’s tricky to see him winning a flat finish.

A strong leadout will be key given the run of three roundabouts inside the last two kilometres which favours the top two in the betting (though Wout van Aert is also likely to be well positioned because he always is and will have Christophe Laporte on hand too).

Given that Jasper Philipsen is plenty short enough, let’s go for Biniam Girmay to get an incredible fourth win and secure the green jersey.

Biniam Girmay 1pt each way (3 places) @11/2

Posted 17:32 BST Mon 15th July 2024

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 16 Result

1st Jasper Philipsen (7/5F)

2nd Phil Bauhaus (70/1)

3rd Alexander Kristoff (100/1)

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]