Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 16 – Livigno - Santa Cristina Valgardena/St. Christina in Gröden (Monte Pana) (202km)
Tue 21st May | Scheduled start: 11:25 CET
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Stage 15 Result
1st Tadej Pogačar (EvsF)
2nd Nairo Quintana (33/1)
3rd Georg Steinhauser (33/1)
4th Romain Bardet (20/1)
Stage 15 Bets
Ben O’Connor 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1 – 8th
Einer Rubio 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1 – 7th
Contrary to rumours and erroneous live data, Rubio didn’t get into the day’s break. However, he did attack from the main group of favourites 3km from home. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to make the frame and he was passed on the steep final slopes, coming home alongside our other pick, O’Connor. Pogačar of course was long gone, and now leads the GC by a huge 6mins 41secs to Thomas.
Stage 16 Preview
Recent snow has caused the removal of the Stelvio Pass due to the threat of avalanches, but its replacement, the Umbrail Pass, is still a significant climbing challenge (16.7km at 7.1%, max 15%) and remains the Cima Coppi – the highest point of this year’s Giro. It’s placed near the start of the route which is a tad cruel after a rest day but should ensure the breakaway is loaded with strong climbers.
Over 100km of largely downhill follows before the first category Passo di Pinei which is shallow on paper at an average of 4.7% though is skewed by a false flat middle third. There are some tough gradients at the top of the second-category Monte Pana summit finish but otherwise it’s not the most difficult finale and therefore tilts the stage towards a breakaway win.
Stage 16 Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (4/1; 5.0) with four wins already and a more than comfortable lead on GC, has no need to put his team to work chasing what is likely to be a big group up the road, especially as significant gaps are unlikely to be made on the final two climbs. Rain is forecast too, so they won’t be taking any risks on the descents, so better to gift this one to the breakaway and keep everyone sweet. Of course, depending on who’s up the road, other teams may chase to protect podium or top 5 spots in which case the favourites could end up contesting the stage win anyway. In that scenario, a fifth stage win for Pogačar is likely, but unbackable at the price given the caveats.
Valentin Paret-Peintre (7/1; 8.0) rode a great stage 15 dragging the main group of GC men up the last climb in support of Ben O’Connor (66/1; 67.0). But the price is short considering Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale may give him that responsibility again and being the lightest rider in the race will really feel the cold.
Nairo Quintana (14/1; 15.0) was unlucky not to win stage 15, caught only by Pogačar inside the last 2km. I was sceptical that the Giro winner from ten years ago still had that kind of performance in him – with those legs Nairoman can definitely take a stage win in the final week. Movistar teammate, Einer Rubio (33/1; 34.0), is also going well but as a top 5 threat not only should he be marked, but if he made it into the break, would reduce its chances of staying away and therefore Quintana’s chances of winning.
Georg Steinhauser (16/1; 17.0) also came close on stage 15 and the shallower gradients near the end probably favour a bigger, power climber like Steinhauser. Assuming he’s got the legs, Steinhauser will go again here.
Damiano Caruso (18/1; 19.0) stayed with the main group of favourites for a fair way up the final climb on stage 15 in support of Antonio Tiberi (80/1; 81.0) showing he’s fully recovered from his earlier mishaps. Bahrain Victorious may shift focus and look for a stage win with Caruso and the veteran Italian is in the form to deliver.
Romain Bardet (20/1; 21.0) sits a little under 4mins from the podium so you’d think would be marked out of the breakaway, but it isn’t always that easy especially with such a tough opening climb and the expected poor weather conditions.
Michael Storer (16/1; 17.0) was one of the big favourites out of the front group on stage 15 but the expected attack never came. Having missed Quintana’s move, maybe he decided to save his legs for another day.
Attila Valter (33/1; 34.0) briefly followed Pogačar’s wheel as the pink jersey swept passed the breakaway. That didn’t last long but the Hungarian champion is improving steadily in this Giro. No doubt, he’ll be in the break with his Visma-Lease a Bike teammate, Jan Tratnik (50/1; 51.0), and both have a chance here.
Jan Hirt (50/1; 51.0) is now tenth on GC and may stay with the favourites but has already chanced his arm in the break once and may do it again. If so, the price looks big.
Juan Pedro López (125/1; 126.0) hasn’t had the best Giro after his win at the Tour of the Alps, but should be up the road again with his mountain domestique Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier (400/1; 401.0). However, Lidl-Trek may be tempted to let the Eritrean ride for his own chances on a final that suits.
With rain forecast, stage 16 is going to be very cold for the riders so, Quintana apart, I’ve leant away from featherweight climbers. Let’s go in with these boys and hopefully we get a run for our money.
Note: Due to the worsening weather forecast, the Umbrail Pass may yet be removed from the route in the interest of rider safety. As of 20:30 BST the route remains the same but could be revised on Tuesday morning.
Stage 16 Bets
Nairo Quintana 2pts win @14/1
Georg Steinhauser 1pt each way (5 places) @16/1
Damiano Caruso 1pt each way (4 places) @18/1
Attila Valter 1pt each way (5 places) @28/1
Jan Hirt 0.5pts each way (5 places) @40/1
Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier 0.5pts each way (5 places) @400/1
Posted 19:48 BST Mon 20th May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
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