Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 16 – Sanlúcar de Barrameda > Tomares (189.4km)

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Stage 15 Result

1st Thymen Arensman (80/1)

2nd Enric Mas (20/1)

3rd Miguel Ángel López (2/1F)

Stage 15 Bets

3pts win Primož Roglič @9/2 – 5th

1pt each way (3 places) Mark Padun @20/1

1pt each way (3 places) Rein Taaramäe @25/1

1pt each way (3 places) Jai Hindley @50/1 – 8th

Of the breakaway picks, only Hindley made it up the road but for a long way was favourite for the stage in-running. In the end, it was Arensman who proved the strongest and bagged a Grand Tour stage win before, as so many promising young DSM riders have before him, he leaves the team next year. Roglič attacked but too late to threaten for the stage win, and his failure to put big time into Evenepoel leaves the Belgian now slight favourite for overall victory.

Stage 16 Preview

This one looks pretty flat, but look at those bumps at the end. We’ve got a 1.7km uncategorised climb at 5% that peaks just 12km from home followed by a series of kickers inside the final 3km – a kilometre at nearly 6%, another rise at the flamme rouge of 4.5% before levelling off and then a further drag of 4% for 300m to the line.

With so many potential attacking launchpads close to home, this is going to be difficult for the sprint teams to control and it’ll be interesting to see who is willing to ride. Given such a flat parcours preceding those tricky ascents, we assume the break will be brought back, but the final could get very messy indeed.

Stage 16 Contenders

A real mix of riders could end up getting involved here, especially as GC teams will be wary – or looking to take advantage – of the complicated finish. Every second counts now for Primož Roglič in the battle for red so we can expect him to push on and try to gap Remco Evenepoel. That might put the Slovenian in the mix and is as short as 14/1 for the win.

But the overwhelming favourite is Trek-Segafredo’s Mads Pedersen. He was super impressive on the uphill finish into Montilla and this similar finish is again up his street. His high level doesn’t appear to have dropped since around June this year and, now that he’s confirmed that he won’t be going to the world championships in Australia, can focus all his efforts on further glory here and securing the green jersey. His price though is not appealing, with only around 7/4 on offer for the Dane. Given that it might get difficult to control, that’s probably not great value.

Second and fourth behind Pedersen on stage 13 – Cofidis’ Bryan Coquard and Bahrain Victorious’ Fred Wright – were both badly positioned turning into the final corner and had to pass quite a few to finish so high up. They’re both similar in price but of the two, Wright is the best to be on simply for his versatility. As on stage 13, he’ll be assessing whether it might not be better to be in the break, and if a big one goes clear, it’s unlikely to be brought back. The Londoner can win in different ways, or at least looks like he can – the win itself is proving elusive so far!

Pascal Ackermann surprised many with an early sprint for the line on stage 13, though perhaps a little too early as it turned out. Pedersen was lucky to be right on his wheel and got the drag away from his rivals, however, he had special legs that day and may have won anyway. A few were suggesting that Juan Sebastián Molano should take over as lead sprinter for UAE Team Emirates, so it was good to see Ackermann challenging again in what’s been a sub-par Vuelta for him.

One man that missed the crucial split was Bora-Hansgrohe’s Danny van Poppel. He got a little cut up going into the final bend just as the German was launching and that did for him, ultimately finishing in a distant fifth. If he gets himself on Pedersen’s wheel – which was his stated aim before stage 13 – then he has a chance. He’s priced around the 11/1 mark.

Positioning is everything on these tricky finals and fast finishers like Quentin Pacher, Daryl Impey or Samuele Battistella, who are clearly on great form, could definitely make the frame in a reduced sprint or even fancy a punchy assault further out.

Finally, with Ineos in full stage-hunting mode, Ben Turner might get repaid for all his excellent domestique work with an option to get up the road or even try something late on – he packs a decent sprint and, despite being on Grand Tour debut, could well have the strength to outlast others as we enter the final week.

Stage 16 Bets

1pt win @11/1 Danny van Poppel @11/1

1pt win @14/1 Fred Wright @14/1

0.25pts each way (3 places) Ben Turner @100/1

Posted 1946 BST Mon 5th Sep 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker