Stage 16 – Salò > Aprica (202km)

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Stage 15 Result

1st Giulio CICCONE (12/1)

2nd Santiago BUITRAGO (33/1)

3rd Antonio PEDRERO (33/1)

4th Hugh CARTHY (12/1)

Stage 15 Bets

Lennard Kämna 2pts win @14/1

Koen Bouwman 1pt each way (3 places) @28/1

Joe Dombrowski 1pt each way (3 places) @28/1

Davide Formolo 1pt win @20/1

Natnael Tesfatsion 0.5pts each way (3 places) @150/1 – 7th

Jai Hindley 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Chapeau-meter

Ciccone on a special day. On the selections – Kämna was in an early move that got 30secs but eventually got caught and that was him shot. Bouwman attacked from the front and got a minute on the break but, as suspected, was more interested in mountain points than the stage win. Formolo was a big disappointment in the break, losing contact very quickly. Tesfatsion was the best finisher in 7th at 150s – impressive considering the strength of the group – but with just too many top level climbers to sneak a place.

Stage 16 Preview

The final week of racing starts with a bang with the queen stage of this year’s Giro – three first-category mountains, including the mighty Mortirolo, and a total of over 5000m of climbing. What’s more, the good weather we’ve been blessed with so far is on the turn with rain and even thunderstorms forecast. 

It has all the ingredients to be an epic day with a guaranteed shake-up in the general classification. By the numbers, it’s the final ascent over the Santa Cristina pass which is the toughest – 13.5km at 8% with the second half a staggering average of 10% – so any breakaway will need several minutes at the bottom to survive and win the day.

Contenders

This is the stage that Ineos will have earmarked to stamp full authority on the race and take a big step towards delivering Richard Carapaz his second Giro victory. Though he failed to put decisive time into his rivals on Saturday, he was the standout rider, and assuming his form hasn’t dropped off a cliff or he’s picked up an illness, the Ecuadorian must start as the big favourite to win stage 16. He’s the most likely winner and though the price is short at 4/1, is just about backable. 

Bora’s Jai Hindley has been super impressive and it’s great to see the Aussie back on top form after a tricky couple of years. He paced his effort well to catch Carapaz on stage 14 but he struggled to match his accelerations, as he did on the Blockhaus stage despite ultimately winning it, and by his own admission was in need of the rest day when it came. If it comes to a sprint, he’ll probably win it, but can he hang on to Carapaz?

We haven’t seen Vincenzo Nibali this good in years. Could he possibly win his third Giro at 37 years of age in his final season as a pro? You can’t rule him out but the 9/1 or thereabouts for the stage is a little short. 

The Bahrain Victorious pair of Mikel Landa and Pello Bilbao looked a level below on stage 14 with Bilbao especially swinging and grimacing his way through the last 60km or so. But things can change, especially on the stage after a rest day, and their descending skills will definitely come in handy here. Those descents should definitely put you off Joäo Almeida who appeared very nervous on the downhills. He’ll no doubt chug away and finish much higher than looked possible at the bottom of the final climb.

As ever, the break is not without a chance as it’s largely determined by how aggressively the peloton races behind. My hunch is they’ll be caught but they could have 10mins or so at some point and given the calibre of who might be in it, that could be enough.  

As one of the pre-race favourites to win the Giro, Simon Yates is a seriously big gun as a breakaway rider. And if on top form, has the option to stay with the favourites and attack off the front knowing he won’t be chased. So Yates can win two ways and it would be no shock to watch him do so. He’s second favourite behind Carapaz. 

We saw a very emotional win for Giulio Ciccone on Sunday, returning to his best form which saw him pick up the maglia azzurra at the Giro three years ago. He was on a mission from the start and put some proper climbers to the sword. But how much did it take out of him physically and mentally? We’ll see, but he’s another who’s clearly found his legs and could double up here. 

However, given that a GC win is more likely than a breakaway, we need to look at some bigger prices for value in the break.  

Bora’s Lennard Kämna was unlucky not to make it up the road on Sunday. He plugged away in a group of three 30secs off the front for mile after mile before finally being reeled in. He still looks one of the strongest riders in the peloton and that’s what ultimately will get you in the break on this final week. This is perhaps more of a mountain test than is ideal for the German, but by no means an impossible task. He’s in at 22/1.

Another who’d be a big threat from the break is Joe Dombrowski. Astana have been keen to allow their riders freedom to get in breaks and chase potential stage wins with David de la Cruz and Harold Tejada also allowed to go forward. But Dombrowski looks the pick of them at the moment and assuming a selection isn’t made before they hit the first climb, I expect the American to be in it. 

And finally, Santiago Buitrago was devastated with his second place behind Ciccone on Sunday with both of them ending the race in tears. There were a whole host of proper riders behind him on that stage and considering this is all relatively new to him, it was a monumental performance by the young Colombian. I think he’ll be given more chances in the final week and is well worth an interest at a decent 66/1.

Stage 16 Bets

Richard Carapaz 4pts win @4/1

Lennard Kämna 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Joe Dombrowski 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Santiago Buitrago 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Posted 21.08 BST Mon 25th May 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available at Oddschecker