Tour de France 2022

Stage 16 – Carcassonne > Foix (178.5km)

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Stage 15 Result

1st Jasper Philipsen (13/2)

2nd Wout van Aert (6/1)

3rd Mads Pedersen (15/2)

4th Peter Sagan (66/1)

Stage 15 Bets

2pts win Jasper Philipsen @13/2 – 1st

0.5pts each way (4 places) Christophe Laporte @66/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Danny van Poppel @100/1 – 5th

0.25pts each way (4 places) Brent van Moer @250/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Luka Mezgec @200/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Michael Mørkøv @300/1

Great for Philipsen to get his first Tour de France win on another crazy stage. The profit could’ve been better with Van Poppel at 100/1 finishing fifth (and was cut up by fourth place Sagan in the last 50m!). But let’s not get greedy. The other picks were very speculative and didn’t come off. Laporte had to look after Vingegaard in what turned into a nightmare stage for Jumbo-Visma, Mezgec did a great job getting Groenewegen back to the front rather than take his own chance. Van Moer didn’t try for the break, and Mørkøv was out the back early suffering with the heat and finished outside the time limit, his Tour now over.

Total Stakes: 74.0pts; Profit/Loss: +17.9pts (+24.2%)

Stage 16 Preview

In any other race, stage 16 – the first of three days in the Pyrenees – would be classified as a mountain stage. But despite the back-to-back first-category climbs in the final third, this one has been labelled ‘hilly’. Even so this is still a severe test of climbing legs and the profile of the day’s winner will likely reflect that.

There’s also good terrain for attacks amongst the favourites, particularly the last 3.5km of the second climb which averages 12% and touches 18% in places. After that, there’s a 27km descent to the line so that also needs to be within the rider’s skillset if they’re to maintain any gaps.

Stage 16 Contenders

Jumbo-Visma had, in the words of sports director Grischa Niermann, ‘a shit day’ on stage 15, losing Primož Roglič before the start and then Steven Kruijswijk to a shoulder injury after a nasty fall. That was followed by another spill involving Teisj Benoot which brought down yellow jersey wearer Jonas Vingegaard. The race leader didn’t look too injured but there’s no doubt that the Dutch team have been severely weakened and are now vulnerable to attacks in the Pyrenees.

So Tadej Pogačar and his UAE Emirates team – reduced in numbers themselves due to Covid – will want to test Jumbo wherever they can. If Pogačar can reduce his 2mins 22secs deficit to under a minute over the next three days, then he’ll feel in with a shout of overhauling Vingegaard in the time trial on stage 20, as he did Roglič two years ago.  

More than likely Pogačar will wait until that final 3.5km of the last climb as this is where he can do most damage. But if he goes earlier or his team drive the pace for a long time then that could doom the break for the stage win. In that scenario, then Pogačar is the most likely winner and is a best price 13/2.

Still at full strength, Ineos Grenadiers may also want to stress test Jumbo and UAE on the climbs and with Adam Yates at 4mins 6secs on GC have an excellent attacking card to play whilst third place Geraint Thomas sits in.

But for the stage win, the likeliest scenario is that a big breakaway goes up the road that includes some top-class climbers and is too far ahead before the fireworks begin behind.

So who’ll be in it? Thibaut Pinot will surely give it another go. However, he’s still searching for his best form after a bout of Covid and even though he’s improved massively since his early days, a descent to the line isn’t ideal. He could win but the 10/1 about him doesn’t appeal.

Groupama-FDJ’s have other options – Valentin Madouas was given some freedom on stage 14 and was in an early break that didn’t stick. With David Gaudu within 2mins of a podium spot, it’s a tricky one for the French squad, but there are rapidly diminishing chances of a stage win so, like many teams, must be looking to throw men forward.

Michael Storer has had a quiet Tour, but he’s been working hard in support of Gaudu. Will he also get the green light to try for the break? At 66/1, he’s worth a small interest each way.

Ineos’ Dani Martínez has been improving slowly after illness and made the break on stage 14. But he was still well short of his best and the 18/1 about him is too short for me. A better option might be Alpe d’Huez winner Tom Pidcock. But sitting ninth on GC might make him a marked man for teams protecting top 5 and podium spots.

EF Education-Easypost’s Alberto Bettiol showed on the Mende airfield that he’s climbing better than ever and this – given that the other two Pyrenean stages have bigger mountain tests – is probably his last chance of getting a win. However, the two first-category climbs are different to the punchier stuff he favours and require longer, more sustained efforts. He’s being backed and is short at just 12/1. He could win but for me that’s not value given the stage profile.

Teammates Neilson Powless and Rigoberto Urán are riding well but disappointed somewhat on the stage where Bettiol came so close. On that evidence I can’t have either of them.

AG2R Citroën’s Bob Jungels came through for us with a great win on stage 9 and has a big chance of doubling up here. Looking at recent stage results, he’s finishing either with the favourites or just behind them which shows his form is holding. Descending will be at a premium which is in Jungel’s favour and he may even have one eye on the mountains competition which is still wide open.

One who does appear to be targeting the polka dot jersey is Trek-Segafredo’s Giulio Ciccone. His form is improving so expect him to be active over the next three days. The 33s about the Italian is decent given his class, we just have to catch him when he’s hot.

Bora-hansgrohe have showed well in this Tour without getting their win. Lennard Kämna disappointed a little on the steep slopes of Mende and, having put so much effort into stage hunting, could be starting to run on fumes.   

Patrick Konrad, Felix Großschartner and Max Schachmann may well be in the break but are likely to find better climbers or at least climbers on better form. Bora’s best chance of victory may be Aleksandr Vlasov who, despite suffering from injuries that put him out of GC contention, has fought on well to sit just outside the top 10. That in itself is a problem for getting in the break and he could be on the list of riders to police.

Others with chances from the break include Bahrain Victorious’ Damiano Caruso, BikeExchange-Jayco’s Nick Schultz, Astana Qazaqstan’s Alexey Lutsenko and Movistar’s Carlos Verona.

So a GC saver on Pogačar just in case it comes back together, otherwise a selection of breakaway hopefuls at half-decent prices.

Stage 16 Bets

1pt win Tadej Pogačar @13/2

1pt each way (4 places) Bob Jungels @20/1

1pt each way (4 places) Valentin Madouas @28/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Giulio Ciccone @33/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Michael Storer @66/1

Posted 1606 BST Mon 18th July 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker