Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 16 – Sabbio Chiese > Monte Bondone (203km)

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Stage 15 Result

1st Brandon McNulty (16/1)

2nd Ben Healy (7/1F)

3rd Marco Frigo (100/1)

4th Bauke Mollema (33/1)

Stage 15 Bets

Ben Healy 2pts win @7/1 – 2nd

Primož Roglič 1pt win @10/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Healy was the strongest from the break but couldn’t quite distance McNally enough to stay away and was beaten in the sprint having burnt one too many matches with his explosive attacks. Neo-pro Frigo – a 250/1 stage 14 pick – finished third to make the loss hurt just a little bit more.

Stage 16 Preview

Over 200km in length with more than 5000m of altitude gain including five categorized climbs – this is a huge day out in the mountains where we should finally see sparks fly to end the GC stalemate. It ends with the first-category Monte Bondone which is 21.4km long at an average of 6.7%, including a double-digit section about 6km from home where we should see the decisive moves. The final 3km levels off so if you arrive with company, a decent sprint will be handy.

The flat 60km start along the shores of Lake Garda will make it difficult for lightweight climbers to make the break on their own, so we should see a number of strong rouleur teammates helping them out. We may also see GC teams looking to get satellite riders up the road, in place to help their leaders later in the stage.

Stage 16 Contenders

Given the length of the final climb, the break is likely to need several minutes at its foot in order to stay away. The pressure is also building on GC teams to produce a bit more of a spectacle, so the stage win is definitely tilted in favour of the main players.

Stage favourite Primož Roglič has had a downbeat tone since suffering a nasty cut to his hip on stage 11 and Jumbo-Visma have been reluctant to put pressure on the race which has contributed somewhat to the GC standoff. Cannily biding their time or genuinely unsure of Roglič’s form? We should find out here but the 7/2 about him is short given the uncertainties.

It was actually UAE Team Emirates’ Joäo Almeida who pushed the pace on the Colle Aperto in Bergamo causing a split amongst the favourites, and the Portuguese is looking in very solid form. He may well yo-yo back and forward a bit, as is his style, but it’s difficult to imagine him not being up there on the final climb. The 16/1 looks decent, though for a rider of his calibre, Almeida doesn’t actually win that often with only three World Tour career wins to his name.

Similarly, Ineos Grenadiers’ Geraint Thomas struggles to get his nose in front, partly due to others having a better kick. Unusually, Thomas has avoided disasters and arrives in the third week not only ahead of his rivals on time but seemingly getting stronger and stronger.

Another experienced rider who is peaking at the right time is Damiano Caruso. The Italian has looked untroubled so far and Bahrain Victorious have instigated some of the few attacks that we’ve seen. Caruso looks over-priced at a best price of 40/1 and is a pick.

At just 3mins 15secs behind Thomas, Thibaut Pinot is too close to be allowed in the breakaway which, given the bounty of mountain points available, is a blow to his maglia azzurra hopes. So the Frenchman will have to win from the GC group, most likely from a late attack. Seeing how he fought to limit his time losses on stage 15 shows that Pinot still has eyes on a high GC finish.

For the break, Ben Healy battled hard for mountain points around Bergamo – perhaps too hard given that his lack of a finishing kick cost him the win he deserved – so he’ll be looking to get up the road to resume his challenge in that competition. He’s the strongest climber outside the GC men that we’ve seen this Giro, and even though he’s untested on climbs as long as this, another Healy win is not out of the question. The 8/1 about him isn’t super generous but he’s a pick for the break should they end up staying away.

Ilan Van Wilder is just over 6mins down on the virtual GC which is on the bubble of being allowed up the road, but the Belgian was as good as the GC men on stage 15 and Soudal-Quick Step will be looking to take something more from the race following Evenepoel’s exit.

Winner on Monte Zoncolan two years ago, Lorenzo Fortunato has drifted out of GC contention and so has plenty of freedom to get up the road. But he’s been quiet so far and either hasn’t held the form he came in with or has been keeping his powder dry for this final week. The 12/1 about him, however, doesn’t appeal.

At a huge price, how about a fun interest on Bora-Hansgrohe’s Bob Jungels? He’s been a little sick and so far been on full domestique duty for Lennard Kämna, but getting him up the road might be useful to his leader later in the race and who knows, could then be given a pass to go for the stage. This profile isn’t too dissimilar to the stage Jungels won at the Tour de France last year and though he’s clearly not on that kind of form, would still be considered a big threat by those around him in the break.

Stage 16 Bets

Joäo Almeida 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Damiano Caruso 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Ben Healy 1pt win @8/1

Bob Jungels 0.25pts each way (4 places) @300/1

Posted 20.50 BST 22nd May 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker