Tour de France 2024
Stage 17 – Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux > SuperDévoluy (178km)
Wed 17th July | Scheduled start: 12:35 CET
Profile
Stage 17 Preview
Where: Continuing northeast towards the Southern French Alps.
Stage Type: Medium mountain.
Weather: Warm and dry again.
Climbs: Three classified climbs all packed into the last 40km with the toughest in the middle – the first-category Col du Noyer (7.5km at 8.1%) – which contains double-digit sections near the top.
Start: Steadily rising ground for the first 80km – lighter climbers may need a rouleur launch or piggy-back again.
Finish: The Col du Noyer is summited with 11km to go before a final rise to the line to Superdévoluy (3.8km at 5.9%) which is toughest in the opening kilometre.
Stage suits: Good climbers but not necessarily purists.
Breakaway chances: Very good. The finish isn’t tough enough for differences to be made amongst the GC men so, assuming there aren’t threats to positions up the road, there’s no reason for them to ride once the break is clear. However, with so many riders wanting to be in the break, there’s always the risk that it never gets established – hopefully this doesn’t happen.
What will happen?: A big fight for the breakaway – this one may take over an hour to settle – that once established is allowed to contest the stage win. It should be full of different types of riders, some of whom will have to anticipate the race rather than hand it to the better climbers, so the ‘break of the break’ maybe before they even hit the climbs could be all important. But all being equal, this one should finally be a breakaway win.
Stage 17 Contenders
EF Education-EasyPost
Richard Carapaz (8/1; 9.0) fought like a dog on stage 15 to be the strongest from the break. Surely will get a win on one of the remaining mountain stages.
Ben Healy (14/1; 15.0) missed the crucial early split on stage 15 and finally ran out of legs. This less mountainous parcours suits him better as long as he isn’t put on domestique duty for Carapaz.
Uno-X Mobility
Tobias Halland Johannessen (18/1; 19.0) is one of the form climbers. Should have plenty of help to get in the break. Has an uphill sprint if needed.
Magnus Cort (50/1; 51.0) can be there to help Johannessen or even try his own chances. The first-category climb is on his limit though and stage 18 suits him better.
Movistar
Oier Lazkano (22/1; 23.0), like Cort, is suited by the flat start. Probably won’t be the best climber in the break should he make it but his willingness to attack and get ahead of the race gives him an advantage.
Javier Romo (66/1; 67.0) was in the final half dozen in the break on stage 15 working for Enric Mas. Has a chance himself if Mas isn’t there.
Enric Mas (50/1; 51.0) doesn’t win much for such an excellent rider. A bit of a follower and easy to side with others.
Visma Lease a Bike
Wout van Aert (25/1; 26.0) has climbed with the very best before but we haven’t quite seen that level yet. Price looks short but, given that the Tour title now looks unlikely, Visma will be looking for wins elsewhere.
Jayco-AlUla
Simon Yates (22/1; 23.0) disappointed somewhat on stage 15 having made the front group. A much bigger price for this – he was 13/2 on Sunday – which is tempting, but have we really seen enough to get onside?
Team dsm-firmenich PostNL
Romain Bardet (33/1; 34.0) declared confidently his desire to win one of the Pyrenean stages but didn’t come close. Form could be on the wane.
Oscar Onley (33/1; 34.0) made the front group on Sunday but was dropped when the heat was turned up. Has a good uphill sprint, but a stretch to see it being needed.
Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe
Jai Hindley (33/1; 34.0) was in the front five of the break though Carapaz, Johannessen and Mas were ultimately stronger, but seems to be riding into some good form. With Red Bull’s refocused goals, should have plenty of support to try again here.
Matteo Sobrero (100/1; 101.0) did some great work for Hindley on stage 15 but isn’t without a chance if allowed his head.
Bob Jungels (150/1; 151.0) ditto above.
Groupama-FDJ
David Gaudu (40/1; 41.0) has been around some breaks without being standout. FDJ will be desperate to get something out of the race so should have at least a couple up the road.
Romain Grégoire (33/1; 34.0) has disappointed a little, though that’s a bit harsh given he’s only 21.
UAE Team Emirates
Marc Soler (200/1; 201.0) looks a big price if UAE give him his head to chase a stage win. Would they be that greedy?
Ineos Grenadiers
Michał Kwiatkowski (80/1; 81.0) is a double Tour stage winner and should be given the freedom to get up the road.
Laurens De Plus (100/1; 101.0) looked good on stage 15 and can try again here as Ineos search for something to turn around their Tour.
Lidl-Trek
Carlos Verona (125/1; 126.0) has ridden excellently in support of Ciccone – will he be given his own chance here?
Toms Skujiņš (125/1; 126.0) isn’t ideally suited by the climbs but could be one of the strong men to get ahead of the race should he make the break.
Stage 17 Bets
Plenty will be trying for this break and the flat start could make it a bit of a lottery, so we need a few running for us. After that, some interesting race dynamics could ensue as many will realise they can’t take the better climbers into the final 40km.
We’ve seen some of these boys before, hopefully one of them can bring it home this time.
Ben Healy 2pts win @14/1
Tobias Halland Johannessen 1pt each way (3 places) @18/1
Oier Lazkano 1pt each way (3 places) @22/1
Javier Romo 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1
Bob Jungels 0.25pts each way (3 places) @150/1
Marc Soler 0.25pts each way (3 places) @200/1
Posted 21:41 BST Tue 16th July 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 17 Result
1st Richard Carapaz (8/1)
2nd Simon Yates (22/1)
3rd Enric Mas (50/1)
4th Laurens De Plus (100/1)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
