Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 16 – Liencres Playa > Bejes (120.5km)

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Stage 15 Result

1st Rui Costa (33/1)

2nd Lennard Kämna (28/1)

3rd Santiago Buitrago (33/1)

4th Remco Evenepoel (8/1F)

Stage 15 Bets

Oier Lazcano 1pt each way (3 places) @22/1

Rune Herregodts 1pt each way (3 places) @50/1

Andrea Vendrame 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Marijn van den Berg 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Hugo Page 0.5pts each way (3 places) @200/1

It was the purer climbers rather than the one-day type specialists that were favoured in the end with the break not fully forming until halfway through the stage. Vendrame was the only pick to make it in and clearly had little left once there.  

Stage 16 Preview

The later start time due to the short stage length gives the riders a little bit extra rest after their day off on Monday. The route follows the northern coastline before dipping inland for an explosive second-category climb in Bejes. It’s just under 5km at almost 9%, however, the last two kilometres don’t go below double digits with sections at 15%.

However, it isn’t long enough to see significant gaps between GC contenders and with two big mountain days coming up, teams should be content to give the break its day again. Given those severe ramps at the end, you’ll need to be more than a bit punchy to win.

Stage 16 Contenders

Remco Evenepoel (9/1; 10.00) appears determined to make the most of every opportunity after dropping out of the GC race, winning and then fourth from the break in the last two stages. In a straight fight, he’d almost certainly win up the final climb, however, riders know that and so he’d likely be attacked and then leant on to chase before hitting it. He also seems intent on landing the mountains jersey and with so few points available, may sit this one out.

Santiago Buitrago (14/1; 15.00) has been pick a few times this Vuelta apart from the stage he placed in. He appears fully recovered from his nasty fall early on and, like Evenepoel, is a GC-level climber, but will he prefer to wait for more mountainous terrain?

Lennard Kämna (16/1; 17.00) just missed out on a second win on stage 15 having found a ditch on the descent. Kämna is excellent at hitting the right breaks and it would be no surprise to see him in the front group again.  

Michael Storer (20/1; 21.00) paid for the energy expended going after mountains points on stage 14 and was left in no-man’s land between groups. Could he have beaten Evenepoel? Probably not, but he’d have been a lot closer had he focused on the stage win. If his goal is the mountains jersey though, Wednesday and Thursday are his days to get up the road.  

Wout Poels (20/1; 21.00) is looking better and better, he just needs to be in the right group and will have a big chance on a finish which is great for him.

Jesús Herrada (28/1; 29.00) got his stage win on a similar finish and showed what an impressive punch the former Spanish champion has got. Herrada has every chance of doubling up if up the road.

Mattia Cattaneo (33/1; 34.00) may be given a rare chance to ride for himself and not in the services of Evenepoel to further save the race for Soudal Quick-Step.

Jan Hirt (80/1; 81.00) ditto above.

Oier Lazcano (40/1; 41.00) hasn’t been involved in as many finals as was thought but that does mean he’s now a very attractive price. Should we keep the faith?

Andreas Kron (50/1; 51.00) showed on Montjuic how punchy he is on a steep slope, though this climb is longer and harder and so may find better climbers around him.

The relatively flat parcours leading into the final and the short stage length are factors that work against the break. So a team may decide to control and set up a stage win. It’s unlikely to be Jumbo-Visma, but if it does come back together, it’s very difficult to look past Primož Roglič (7/1; 8.00) though Sepp Kuss (28/1; 29.00), who still looks a million dollars, is a more attractive price.

As it’s not guaranteed, let’s go in with some breakaway options and Kuss as backup should it end with a GC fight.

Stage 16 Bets

Wout Poels 2pts each way (4 places) @16/1

Jesús Herrada 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1

Mattia Cattaneo 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Oier Lazcano 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1

Sepp Kuss 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1

Posted 21:27 BST Mon 11th Sept 2023

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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