Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 17 – Selva di Val Gardena/Wolkenstein in Gröden - Passo del Brocon (159km)
Wed 22nd May | Scheduled start: 12:25 CET
Profile
Stage 16 Result
1st Tadej Pogačar (4/1F)
2nd Giulio Pellizzari (33/1)
3rd Dani Martínez (33/1)
4th Christian Scaroni (33/1)
5th Antonio Tiberi (80/1)
Stage 16 Bets
Nairo Quintana 2pts win @14/1
Georg Steinhauser 1pt each way (5 places) @16/1
Damiano Caruso 1pt each way (4 places) @18/1 – 7th
Attila Valter 1pt each way (5 places) @28/1
Jan Hirt 0.5pts each way (5 places) @40/1
Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier 0.5pts each way (5 places) @400/1
After a bit of a shambles the stage finally got underway without the Umbrail Pass which changed the dynamic of the race completely and effectively ruined the chances of most of the picks. It was the right decision though as the health and safety of the riders is paramount and certainly more important than a few silly bets. That’s the way it goes!
Stage 17 Preview
The riders stay in the mountains for stage 17 and another big day out with five classified climbs and 4,000m of altitude gain before ending with a first-category summit finish. It’s uphill from the flag for the second category Passo Sella (8.9km at 7.1%) which should lead to a strong group of climbers forming the breakaway.
The stage finale sees the riders scale the Passo Brocon twice from different sides (13.3km at 6.5% and 11.8km at 7.3%), with double-digit sections on both. There’ll probably be a breakaway shake-out on the first before the race winning move on the second, somewhere in the final 5km. It’ll be a top climber that wins this and probably from outside the GC favourites as the breakaway is favoured to take the day.
Stage 17 Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (3/1; 4.0) took his fifth win of the race on stage 16, albeit a bit reluctantly. UAE Team Emirates would’ve been happy for a breakaway to take the win, but the revised downhill start meant it was difficult for a big break to form and then Movistar rode to keep the small group that did get away on a tight leash. For Quintana, Rubio, Sanchez? – who knows but fair play to them for trying something, I suppose. Unless it falls into his lap again, UAE and Pogačar will surely gift some glory to others here … or get Rafał Majka (20/1; 21.0) in the break!
Nairo Quintana (10/1; 11.0) looked like he was being set up to attack on the final climb and go for the stage win but instead rode for Einer Rubio (20/1; 21.0) who in the end didn’t have the legs to deliver. It was a little surprising how briefly Quintana’s spell on the front lasted – maybe Sunday left a mark or perhaps he was keeping a little bit back for this. Rubio himself may also try for the break and at twice the price is better value, but that would compromise Quintana’s chances of winning, so it’s a tricky one.
Valentin Paret-Peintre (7/1; 8.0) was again excellent in shepherding Ben O’Connor (40/1; 41.0), who had a bit of a wobble, up the final climb. Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale may reward him with a chance to go for a second stage victory here, especially if they want to firm up their lead in the team classification. Alex Baudin (66/1; 67.0) is another option at a more attractive price though his form appears to be on the downturn.
Damiano Caruso (8/1; 9.0) is looking stronger and stronger after falling earlier in the race. He and Antonio Tiberi (50/1; 51.0) were two of the best on the final climb, finishing third and fifth out of the GC group. Even though it might hinder Tiberi’s challenge for the white jersey, Bahrain Victorious should let the former Giro runner-up go for a stage win though his price is plenty short enough.
Michael Storer (11/1; 12.0) appeared to be laughing and joking with Pogačar on the final climb – maybe asking him if he was going for the stage win and therefore whether it was worth bothering to attack. The Aussie finished just behind Caruso so clearly has great legs though stated before the final week that his main goal was to finish in the top 10, rather than take a stage win.
Giulio Pellizzari (16/1; 17.0) was unlucky not to win stage 16 – had the dynamic of the race been different then Pogačar wouldn’t have chased him down. He’s been a stage pick a couple of times already this Giro but any thoughts that the young Italian was flying under the radar and therefore value are now gone.
Georg Steinhauser (16/1; 17.0) didn’t try to hang on with the GC favourites on stage 16, finishing over 20mins down, and that saved energy should help him here. EF Education-EasyPost will try to get as many riders up the road as possible, but the young German is definitely their best option. Can he live with the best on the very steep stuff though?
Jan Hirt (25/1; 26.0) won in the final week of the Giro two years ago and put in another top showing on stage 16, cementing a top 10 place overall. Surely a stage win is more important to him though and he’s already sneaked into a break once before.
Thymen Arensman (33/1; 34.0) finished an excellent sixth despite a puncture at the bottom of the final climb. If he tries to get up the road, however, it’ll start a domino effect up the GC standings and the battle for the white jersey.
Attila Valter (50/1; 51.0) stayed with the main group of favourites for a long way up the final climb and said after the stage that he still had more to give. He and Jan Tratnik (80/1; 81.0) will almost certainly be in the break for Visma-Lease a Bike.
Some riders inside the top 10 will surely try for the break and that could cause teams behind to protect top 5 and podium spots. So a GC win (ie. Pogačar) can’t be ruled out, but on balance this should be taken by the breakaway.
There are no secrets now about who’s got great legs and the skinny prices on offer for the main contenders reflect that. Quintana and Caruso have massive chances but are very short, so at slightly more favourable odds, the main picks are Michael Storer and Einer Rubio, with Jan Hirt and Attila Valter as backup.
Stage 17 Bets
Michael Storer 2pts each way (4 places) @10/1
Einer Rubio 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1
Jan Hirt 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1
Attila Valter 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1
Posted 21:24 BST Tue 21st May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
Follow @elpatroncycling on X and Threads
