Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 17 – Monumento Juan Castillo. Arnuero > Santander (141km)
Wed 4th Sep | KM0: 14:18 CET
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Stage 17 Preview
Where: Starts on the Cantabrian coast in northern Spain and, after a trip inland for a couple of hills, ends in its capital, Santander.
Stage Type: Medium Mountains by classification though hilly would be more accurate.
Weather: Around 20˚C and rainy.
Climbs: Two second-category climbs in the first 70km, the first of which is a bit of a stinger – 5.5km at 8.7%. If this is where the break goes then it’ll be full of puncheurs.
Start: Immediately up a short unclassified climb but then 30km or so of flat before the road goes uphill towards the first classified climb.
Finish: Slightly downhill as they head to the beachfront, there’s a left-hander 2km out before a kink to the left with 700m to go and a roundabout taken on the right-hand side inside the last 400m where a position in the front ranks will be vital.
Stage suits: Breakaway specialists, rouleurs, puncheurs, sprinters.
Breakaway chances: Good. Plenty will be up for making the breakaway and the group that finally gets clear could well be too big and strong to bring back. We often see a so-called ‘sprint day’ at the back end of a Grand Tour won by the breakaway and stage 17 could follow that trend.
What will happen?: Alpecin-Deceuninck will want to control to set up a sprint for Kaden Groves, but it’s going to be difficult for them to police the front of what’s likely to be a very active race. Putting Groves in the break may be a better option considering how many teams will be looking to get a man up the road. The race will either end in a bunch finish or a breakaway win – it’s probably the toss of a coin which.
Stage 17 Contenders
Kaden Groves (6/4; 2.5) is now in the green jersey following Wout van Aert’s unfortunate departure and is the fastest rider still in the race. Alpecin-Deceuninck can either try to control or get Groves or someone else in the break. They’ll probably start with the idea of controlling and then see what happens. Quinten Hermans (28/1) is another good option for the break, especially if it goes on the first categorised climb on which Groves will struggle.
Pavel Bittner (13/2; 7.5) climbed well on stage 14 and was on Van Aert’s wheel with 200m to go only to run out of legs on the uphill drag and finish down the field. This flatter finish gives him a chance of a second stage win though it would be understandable if the young man is tiring this deep into his Grand Tour debut.
Corbin Strong (9/1) finished third on that stage, his second of this Vuelta. The tougher the better for the Kiwi who’s still knocking on the door for that first World Tour win.
Jhonatan Narváez (14/1) could probably do with a few more hills and ideally won’t want the break to go until the first climb. Will be dangerous from a small group.
Mathias Vacek (16/1) can win from a small group and will be hoping it becomes a tough one-day type race.
Kasper Asgreen (20/1) was in the break on stage 14 which shows his form is coming round. Is exactly the type of rider Alpecin-Deceuninck will be wary of giving rope to.
Stefan Küng (20/1) has had great legs this Vuelta so it would be a shame if he left it empty handed. Would need to drop faster men before the line but has the power to do it.
Edoardo Affini (20/1) should now be let loose by Visma Lease a Bike now that Van Aert has gone home and Sepp Kuss has slipped out of the GC picture. Affini could also do well in a bunch finish against fatigued sprinters, but the breakaway is his best option.
Victor Campenaerts (28/1) may well have been saving himself for this stage and Thursday’s in much the same way he did for stage 18 of the Tour de France. Can’t be written off.
Pau Miquel (40/1) flew home from the clouds on stage 14 to finish fifth. Starting from a better position and he could’ve challenged for the win. An amazing third stage victory for Equipo Kern Pharma? Maybe.
Mauro Schmid (50/1) was hanging round the back again on stage 16 so is likely to be up the road again here. Probably could do with a few more hills in the final though.
Stage 17 Bets
This could go either way so we need to cover all bases - a sprinter should it come back together and a few options for the break.
Mathias Vacek 1pt to win and 3 places @16/1
Stefan Küng 1pt to win and 3 places@20/1
Victor Campenaerts 1pt to win and 3 places @28/1 – 6th
Pau Miquel 0.5pts to win and 3 places @40/1 – 4th
Posted 21:29 BST Tue 3rd Sep 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 17 Result
1st Kaden Groves (6/4F)
2nd Pavel Bittner (13/2)
3rd Vito Braet (80/1)
4th Pau Miquel (40/1)
[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
