Tour de France 2023

Stage 17 – Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc > Courchevel (165.5km)

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Stage 16 Result

1st Jonas Vingegaard (11/8)

2nd Tadej Pogačar (5/4F)

3rd Wout van Aert (11/2)

Stage 16 Bets

Carlos Rodríguez Top 3 1pt win @6/1

Mattias Skjelmose Top 3 0.5pts win @20/1 – 8th

Well, nobody saw that coming – Vingegaard beating Pogačar by a massive 1min 38secs and all but securing a second Tour title. On the picks, Skjelmose was one of the quickest up the climb but had already lost too much ground on the flat. Rodríguez was in the frame for a top 5 but, surprisingly, lost time in the final sector and slipped to fourth on GC behind Adam Yates.  

Stage 17 Preview

The Queen Stage of the Tour de France – four categorised climbs with over 5,000m of altitude gain ending with the hors-catégorie Col de la Loze which, at 2,300m above sea level, is the highest point in this year’s race.

The Col de la Loze is long at 28.1km with an average gradient of 6%, however, those numbers don’t tell the whole story. After a brief downhill run in the middle, the remaining 11km to the top averages 8.5% with the final 5km at 10%, hitting a maximum of 24%. And the climbing isn’t over – a descent into Courchevel is followed by a 1km ramp up a short airplane runway which hits 18%. All in all, a very big day out in the mountains.

Stage 17 Contenders

After Jonas Vingegaard’s (11/4) dominant win in the time trial, stage 17 perhaps won’t be quite as decisive as we thought it would be 24 hours ago. What an unbelievable ride. Now he just needs to follow Tadej Pogacar’s (11/4) wheel and he’ll secure his second Tour de France title.

Is it kitchen sink time for Pogačár and UAE Team Emirates? Will they go all-in on a long-range assault to try to isolate Vingegaard early? More likely, they’ll drive a hard pace before an attack near the top of the Col de la Loze – there’s more than enough terrain for Pogačár to put in a series of attacks and try to shake off his rival. It seems unlikely, but a lot of things do until they happen. If he can’t get rid of Vingegaard, then he’s going to be vulnerable to a counter punch and, potentially, a knockout blow.

It’ll be interesting to see how UAE play the card of Adam Yates (16/1). They won’t want to lose the third spot on the podium, especially as the top step is now looking unlikely. Yates will have to pace for Pogačár, but may be allowed to jump off the front to test Carlos Rodríguez (28/1). And if there’s stalemate with the front two, he has a chance of running away with the stage win. Likewise, Rodríguez also needs to take time on Yates, so we could see two fights happening at the same time – a double ding-dong!  

David Gaudu (25/1) put in a surprisingly impressive time trial, finishing 10th. He’s had a couple of very difficult moments on mountain stages where he’s been dropped early, but each time has recovered and fought back well. He may be riding into his best form, a bit late for a GC charge but maybe not for a stage win. Gaudu may even try for the breakaway, otherwise a late attack that isn’t followed is his best bet.

Chances are running out for climbers out of the GC picture to get a stage win, so those without team jobs to do will be given licence to get up the road. The first-category Col des Saises comes after just 17km where we could see a mega-break get clear.

Giulio Ciccone (25/1) took the outright lead in the mountains competition by hammering it up the second-category climb in the time trial, and Lidl-Trek will do everything to make sure he’s in the early move. He can sweep up maximum points on the first two climbs, though the double points available on the Col de la Loze as the designated Souvenir Henri Desgrange, the highest point in the race, are likely to go to the GC group. As on stage 15, the energy spent winning the KOM points takes its toll and makes a stage win, should the break stay away, a tough ask.

It looks like Tom Pidcock (40/1) didn’t give it full beans in the time trial, finishing 5mins 39secs down, behind even Guillaume Martin (50/1), and though he’s said the team priority is to get Rodríguez on the podium, will surely be allowed some freedom to go for a stage win. If he still has the legs, Pidcock will almost certainly go forward, as will, most probably, Martin.

However, AG2R Citroën are protecting a top 10 for Felix Gall (25/1) so it would be a risk to allow those two up the road and assume it’ll come back together. They either need to mark them out of it, which won’t be easy on a first-category climb, take responsibility and drive the peloton once the break has gone to keep the gap in check, or get Gall in the break himself. If Gall goes, it could trigger a domino effect further up the GC and we could see some of the best riders in the race up the road.

For the umpteenth time, a mention for Mattias Skjelmose (40/1) who landed a second top 10 in as many stages in the TT. Vingegaard apart, The Dane was as fast as the GC favourites up the climb so clearly still has good legs. We’ve come this far with Skjelmose so might as well follow him over the cliff.

Finally, despite a second and a third, Mathieu Burgaudeau (100/1) continues to be offered at triple-figure prices and is worth a nibble.

Given the brutal nature of the final climb and the current state of the race, this looks tilted towards a GC win, but let’s include some breakaway options just in case.

Stage 17 Bets

Jonas Vingegaard 3pts win @5/2

Felix Gall 1pts each way (4 places) @20/1

Mattias Skjelmose 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Mathieu Burgaudeau 0.25pts each way (4 places) @80/1

Posted 21:36 BST 18th July 2023

Prices (in brackets) to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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