Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 17 – Pergine Valsugana > Caorle (195km)

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Stage 16 Result

1st Joäo Almeida (16/1)

2nd Geraint Thomas (18/1)

3rd Primož Roglič (7/2F)

4th Eddie Dunbar (80/1)

Stage 16 Bets

Joäo Almeida 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1 – 1st

Damiano Caruso 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1 – 7th

Ben Healy 1pt win @8/1

Bob Jungels 0.25pts each way (4 places) @300/1

With his new attacking philosophy (supposedly encouraged via text by teammate Tadej Pogačar), Almeida looks a level above what he’s shown at previous grand tours and is now as short as 7/4 to win the Giro d’Italia. Caruso lost contact when the Portuguese put in the first dig and lost over a minute which was a bit disappointing. Healy made the break but finally found his limit on the last climb – his focus now will be on defending the maglia azzurra.

Stage 17 Preview

The fastmen that have so far survived the mountains and the crashes and the various illnesses going around are rewarded with a flat stage that ought to end in a bunch sprint. However, that’s never a certainty in the final week of a grand tour. There’s a lot of fatigue in the peloton and only a few sprint teams left to control, so attackers may also fancy their chances. So, despite the sprinter-friendly profile, we could see a fight for the breakaway which won’t form easily given the slight downhill run for the first 100km.

The final on the coast just north of Venice is quite technical with five turns inside the last 2km and there’s also a chance of showers later in the afternoon which could make the run to the line even more hazardous. Being positioned well by teammates will be vital to keep a clean line through those bends and come out of the final corner with 600m to go in one of the front positions.

Stage 17 Contenders

Sprint teams will need to be on high alert and work together to police the front and ensure a small, nonthreatening break goes clear. If they lose control and a big group of powerhouses get up the road then they may lack the firepower to bring it back.

So which teams are they? Bahrain-Victorious have the maglia ciclamino wearer and probably the fastest man left in the race, Jonathan Milan. Despite being on grand tour debut, Milan still looks full of energy and was up in the break on stage 16, hoovering up more sprint points.

His was the standout sprint on stage 11 when he came from way back but just failed to catch Pascal Ackermann before the line. Bahrain still have a full roster of eight riders in the race so, even though some of those will be looking after Damiano Caruso, they should still have plenty to put their shoulders to the wheel and help deliver the Italian.  

That’s probably not the case for Ackermann as his UAE Team Emirates’ colleagues will be saving their legs to help Joäo Almeida before the mountain tests to come. The German has his stage win, but that was on a much tougher parcours than this, and there must be a doubt whether his top-end speed will be a match for others on this flattest of flat days.

As often appears the case, Fernando Gaviria has been luckless this Giro and was pretty banged up after a crash on stage 11, so it was good to see him in the breakaway on stage 14 clearly feeling a bit better. Movistar’s tactics that day to hold the break together for a Gaviria sprint were, let’s say, optimistic, but they clearly committed and believed in Gaviria which counts for something. He only just sneaked in under the time limit on stage 16, 51mins behind the winner, which isn’t a great sign, but there’s no doubt the Colombian has the speed to win.

The only other team that is likely to control is Astana Qazaqstan for Mark Cavendish. After announcing his plan to retire at the end of the season, Cav will be giving everything for a 17th career Giro d’Italia stage win and then of course a perfect movie-ending 35th Tour de France stage win later this summer. He’s been close and, as the sprint field thins out, finds himself second favourite for stage 17 at around 9/2.

If the breakaway is to succeed it will need to be full of strong rouleurs – riders such as Edoardo Affini and Magnus Cort who did something similar on a designated flat stage in last year’s Giro and managed to stay away by 14secs (and land an El Patrón 1-2-3!). However, Affini will be needed to do some donkey work for Primož Roglič over the next few days and Cort has been struggling with sickness.

Other riders of a similar type are double stage winner Nico Denz and the impressive Laurenz Rex of Intermarché-Circus-Wanty who has been cut from 100/1 to as short as 28s. If a few of those guys get up the road, it probably won’t be coming back, but on balance, let’s go for a sprint win for big Jonny Milan.

Stage 17 Bets

Jonathan Milan 2pts win @7/4

Posted 22.10 BST 23rd May 2023

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