Stage 17 – Ponte di Legno > Lavarone (168km)

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Stage 16 Result

1st Jan HIRT (66/1)

2nd Thymen ARENSMAN (66/1)

3rd Jai HINDLEY (11/2)

4th Richard CARAPAZ (4/1F)

Stage 16 Bets

Richard Carapaz 4pts win @4/1 – 4th

Lennard Kämna 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1 – 7th

Joe Dombrowski 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Santiago Buitrago 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Chapeau-meter

For a long way, Kämna looked the winner after attacking on the descent towards the final climb and was trading around even money in-running. Not to be though, and behind Ineos didn’t look quite as strong as we’re used to – that makes for an exciting last week in the battle for the overall with Carapaz, Hindley, Landa and Almeida all with chances. Both Dombrowski and Buitrago were put to work for their leaders, Nibali and Landa, but may be let off the leash again in the days ahead.

Stage 17 Preview

A mountain day and another chance for either breakaway specialists to grab a stage win or for GC favourites to put time into rivals before the final TT in Verona. This one’s not quite as brutal as the Mortirolo stage but still has more than 3700m of climbing over the 168km route including two first-category ascents packed into the last 60km. The final climb up to Monterovere is the toughest at 7.9km with an average gradient of almost 10%, rising to 11% for the last 4km, which is where the race winning move is likely to be made.

The riders managed to dodge the rain and thunderstorms forecast for stage 16, but they might not be so lucky here with potentially treacherous conditions expected. That’ll put bike handling and descending skills at a premium, especially after cresting the penultimate climb – the Vetriolo Pass – which is long and technical.

Contenders

There was no killer blow amongst the GC favourites on stage 16 which will make tactics here interesting. Astana, Ineos and Bahrain all took control at different times but none appear to have a mountain train that can isolate rivals whilst keeping themselves intact. In fact, the full gas, chaotic start left many riders exposed and the brakes had to be put on to allow domestiques to come back. So does that mean this will be ridden more defensively or will they sense weakness in the others and put the hammer down? It certainly means that the stage is in the balance for a GC win or breakaway, so both hands will need to be played. 

Jai Hindley again impressed. Despite getting momentarily dropped, he was able to hold his own and outsprint Richard Carapaz for third and never looked in too much danger. With Lennard Kämna and Wilco Kelderman ahead, Bora didn’t have the strength in numbers to control or push like the other teams. Seeing the form of Hindley, they may decide to keep their troops back this time and drive the race as they did so impressively on stage 14, blowing the race to pieces. Other teams will be fearful of that.

The prices are out and Hindley has been installed the 11/2 favourite with Carapaz a point bigger. That indicates, and we saw it ourselves, that the Ecuadorian is struggling to shake his rivals on the climbs in quite the dominant way that I and many others expected. And with the Aussie the faster finisher, he may sniff a chance of ending the day in pink. In the last week of a Grand Tour, one day’s results don’t necessarily translate into the next day’s as fatigue and stress accumulate. Things can change, form can build or drop and experience counts for a lot. But as it stands, Carapaz, Hindley, together with Mikel Landa look the standout riders, with João Almeida and Vincenzo Nibali a step below. This is a tricky one, but I still think Carapaz is the strongest and canny enough to be timing his efforts over the last week. He’s the GC saver for this one. 

The road goes uphill from the flag for almost 9km, which is a welcome change after the stages starting with 30, 40 or 100km of flattish road where we’ve seen endless failed attempts to form the breakaway. This time, the strongest climbers with time on GC should prevail and make the day’s break. We’re deep enough into the race now to pretty much know who the likeliest candidates are, so it’s all about second guessing who will be given licence to go up the road and who will have to ride in service of their leader. 

For once this Giro, Astana held their men back to build a mountain train around Nibali and asserted some pressure on Ineos and co. But there could be some licences handed out here – Joe Dombrowski, David de la Cruz and Harold Tejada are options. Of the three, Dombrowski has looked the strongest climber and the only one who hasn’t dropped tamely out of a breakaway. Though shorter, frustratingly, than he was on stage 16, the American is in again. 

Trek-Segafredo will want representation – Giulio Ciccone, Bauke Mollema, or even former pink jersey wearer Juanpe López could all give it a go. It’s been an emotional few weeks for both López and Ciccone and they may now be paying for it, so I think it’s time Mollema was given another chance. This is maybe a bit mountainous to be ideal, but at this point it’s all about legs and if he’s still got them, will be a big player. The 28s about him is decent.

I managed to swap out stage 16 winner Jan Hirt for Santiago Buitrago in the selections yesterday on the logic that the former would be more likely to have to stay with their leader. I chose … poorly. What’s more, the 66/1 on the Colombian for stage 16 is now a third of that price. Still, in order to complete a very familiar-looking selection of bets, he’s in.

Stage 17 Bets

Richard Carapaz 2pts win @7/1

Joe Dombrowski 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Posted 2118 BST Tue 24th May 2022

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