Vuelta a España 2024

Stage 18 – Vitoria-Gasteiz > Maeztu-Parque Natural de Izki (179km)

Thu 5th Sep | KM0: 13:20 CET

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Stage 18 Preview

Where: Starts in the capital of the Basque Country, Vitoria-Gasteiz, and takes in some hills to the south in an anti-clockwise loop.

Stage Type: Medium mountains.

Weather: Mid-teens with the possibility of rain.

Climbs: Only two classified climbs but up and down all day long. The second-category Alto de Rivas de Tesero (11.1km at 3.4%) comes more or less in the middle of the stage followed by the harder first-category Puerto Herrera (5.6 at 8.3%) which has a few double-digit sections.

Start: A significant unclassified climb after about 15km could be where the break goes.

Finish: An unclassified bump that peaks just 5km from home is the perfect launchpad for a race winning move.

Stage suits: breakaway specialists, puncheurs, rouleurs, maybe even climbers.

Breakaway chances: Excellent. Given the lumpy terrain and the tricky final, it’s very unlikely a team will want to control this all day unless a GC threat happens to sneak up the road.

What will happen?: A big battle for the break which, once settled, will fight it out for the stage win. We might get a mega-break here so catching ‘la fuga de la fuga’ could be all-important. Things are never 100% and race dynamics can be strange, but this stage looks nailed on a breakaway win.

Stage 18 Contenders

Jhonatan Narváez (6/1) has a punch, can sprint and is very good at sniffing out breakaway moves that stick – this looks perfect for him though he’ll be closely watched and maybe leant on.

Mauro Schmid (16/1) ditto above though maybe less marked.

Kaden Groves (7/1) got his win on stage 17 and can clearly climb but will be vulnerable on the first-category test. Quinten Hermans (20/1) is a better option at a bigger price for Alpecin-Deceuninck.

Stefan Küng (20/1) stayed out of things on stage 17 when things looked set up for a typical late Küng attack. Must be saving himself for this … or feeling it.

Kasper Asgreen (22/1) has the attributes to do well on this parcours but is he riding at a good enough level?

Victor Campenaerts (22/1) came close on stage 17 after being a heavily marked man from the gun. Will go again and has the smarts to pull it off.

Mathias Vacek (25/1) is a tough, punchy climber with a sprint so would be dangerous if in the break.

Max Poole (25/1) although a climber is also an excellent rouleur with a sprint, so can’t be ruled out. Pavel Bittner (22/1) has proven he can climb and of course is fast, so is another good card for dsm-firmenich PostNL.

Isaac del Toro (25/1), Marc Soler (33/1) and Brandon McNulty (16/1) are excellent options for UAE Team Emirates with Soler perhaps looking the best option – he’s on incredible form and this profile probably suits him better than the stage he won.

Oier Lazkano (28/1) has been a bit tricky to read this Vuelta but was in the early skirmishes on stage 17 so Movistar are likely to give him another pass, especially considering he’ll be on home roads.  

Marco Frigo (33/1) and Corbin Strong (33/1) are probably the best options for Israel Premier Tech with the impressive Frigo making most appeal.

Pau Miquel (40/1) was given the full support of his Equipo Kern Pharma team on stage 17 and he finished a decent fourth. If anything, this presents a better opportunity if he can arrive without some of the faster men.  

Darren Rafferty (200/1) has been on domestique duty for EF Education EasyPost but may be given a pass for the day and the Irish champion is attractive at triple-figure odds.

Stage 18 Bets

We need to cast the net wide here as plenty will be after getting in the day’s break. Being able to intelligently read the race situation will be important … as well as a punch and a sprint.

Quinten Hermans 1pt to win and 5 places @22/1

Mathias Vacek 1pt to win and 5 places @28/1 – 7th

Oier Lazkano 1pt to win and 4 places @28/1 – 5th

Marco Frigo 1pt to win and 5 places @33/1

Darren Rafferty 0.5pts to win and 5 places @200/1

Posted 21:08 BST Wed 4th Sep 2024

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 18 Result*

1st Urko Berrade (80/1)

2nd Mauro Schmid (16/1)

3rd Max Poole (33/1)

4th Aleksandr Vlasov (150/1)

5th Oier Lazkano (28/1)

*Pau Miquel was relegated from 3rd place due to an irregular sprint.

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]