Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 18 – Oderzo > Val di Zoldo (161km)

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Stage 17 Result

1st Alberto Dainese (8/1)

2nd Jonathan Milan (7/4F)

3rd Michael Matthews (40/1)

Stage 17 Bets

Jonathan Milan 2pts win @7/4 – 2nd

Milan was poorly positioned throughout, had to chop his speed in the last corner and still only lost by a couple of centimetres. If he’s anywhere near the front, he wins. But that’s sprinting and fair play to Dainese who’s been struggling with stomach issues the last few days.

Stage 18 Preview

The first of two huge days in the Dolomite mountains which should go a long way to deciding who wins this year’s Giro d’Italia. There are five categorized climbs on stage 18 including a couple of leg-breakers in the final 40km where we’re guaranteed to see some GC fireworks. Just 25km after flag down, the road starts to rise for the first-category Passo della Crosetta where a strong break containing some top-quality climbers will assemble.

After 80km of steadily ascending road, the riders hit the first-category Forcella Cibiana – 9.6km at 7.8% but averaging over 9% for the last 5km – where we’ll see a serious thinning down of the main bunch. Then straight up the second-category Coi climb – 5.8km at 9.7%, with a section close to 20% – before a final, cruel stinger up to the line of 2.7km at 6.4%. With these severe gradients, minutes can be won and lost amongst the GC favourites – it’s definitely a day to pack your climbing legs!

Stage 18 Contenders

Despite Jumbo-Visma sports director Marc Reef suggesting that his power numbers looked good and just found two better than him on the day, Primož Roglič clearly wasn’t at his best on stage 16, more than likely still suffering from the hip injury he sustained earlier in the race. But that doesn’t mean that things can’t turn around – he’s had another day for his wounds to heal and this stage, with it’s shorter, steeper climbs, is tailor-made for the Slovenian. Crucially, despite burning through a lot of his men quite quickly, he did have the last domestique standing in Sepp Kuss. He simply can’t be ruled out to bounce back, put in a classic Rog performance and suddenly be the Giro favourite again – he’s a best price of 11/2 for the stage.

Whether it was Tadej Pogačar’s influence or not, the new, attack minded Joäo Almeida we saw on stage 16 looks a level above what he’s shown previously. He was, however, helped a lot by Geraint Thomas who, after bridging, drove the two on to gap Roglič behind. Had Thomas not come over, you wonder if Almeida would’ve been brought back. Luckily, as Almeida put it, ‘Geraint came like a f****** rocket!’.

Both Almeida and Thomas excel on longer, shallower climbs … which they’re not going to get here. But it all depends on the legs and for now, these two seem to have the best ones. On price, Thomas is the main GC pick – can he fire up that rocket on his 37th birthday?

Does the break have a chance? Very much so as the it’s likely to be packed with some excellent climbers, but in the end it will be decided by how early and how ferociously it kicks off behind.

Surprisingly, after hints of division in the camp, UAE Team Emirates supported Almeida very well on stage 16. Jay Vine did a lot of the damage, putting a chunk of riders in trouble when he put his foot down with 8.5km to go, showing he’s recovered well from his injuries. Given his comments earlier in the week, will he be given a bit of freedom here as payback for his efforts on Tuesday? The 40/1 is decent enough and Vine is in the breakaway pot.  

At just under 7mins off GC, Thibaut Pinot may still be considered too much of a threat to be allowed in any break. It’s strange tactics from the FDJ man – if he wanted a stage win or a chance to take back the maglia azzurra, then deliberately losing more time would’ve been the obvious play. As it is, he might miss out on everything. Despite his good form, let’s leave him for this, assume he loses another few minutes, then reassess his price for stage 19. 

A further minute behind Pinot is Soudal Quick-Step’s Ilan Van Wilder who fought to an excellent sixth place finish on Monte Bondone. The young Belgian now has a chance to leapfrog into the top 10. If up the road, he’ll be one of the favourites, however, the price is short at just 10/1.

Similarly, Bahrain Victorious’ Santiago Buitrago is also around that 7min mark and so far has been a loyal lieutenant to Damiano Caruso. However, now that a podium spot looks a tough ask for Caruso, the Colombian might be let off the leash to go for a stage win. His teammate, Jack Haig, looked one of the strongest in the breakaway on stage 16 and has clearly recovered well following the crash that ended his GC hopes. One of them is likely to be in the break – let’s go for the Aussie at the bigger price. Caruso himself looks a big price at 66/1 considering he’s sat in fourth place on GC. It’s clearly due to his below-par performance on Monte Bondone, but he was looking pretty stellar before that so let’s go in with him again as a GC back-up pick.

Astana Qazaqstan’s Vadim Pronskiy stayed on strongly to finish just a few seconds behind Haig up Monte Bondone, despite being out front with teammate Christian Scaroni for the best part of 40km. How high up would Pronskiy have finished had he not tried that long-range attack? He’s sure to try for the break again and is worth a small interest at a big price.

The last man standing from the break though was actually Jayco-AlUla’s Filippo Zana who gave Eddie Dunbar a great turn near the end of stage 16. The Italian champion has been very active throughout the Giro, but now that Dunbar has something significant to defend – a top 5 on GC – he might be held back.

Ben Healy will be wanting up the road to defend his blue jersey, though we saw on stages 15 and 16 that fighting for those points saps the legs and makes winning a stage much harder. The 11/1 about him seems short and doesn’t appeal on those grounds.

Stage 18 Bets

Geraint Thomas 1pt each way (4 places) @10/1

Damiano Caruso 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Jack Haig 1pt each way (4 places) @18/1

Jay Vine 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Vadim Pronskiy 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Posted 20.46 BST 24th May 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker