Stage 18 – Borgo Valsugana > Treviso (152km)

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Stage 17 Result

1st Santiago BUITRAGO (20/1) 

2nd Gijs LEEMREIZE (150/1)

3rd Jan HIRT (50/1)

4th Hugh CARTHY (28/1)

Stage 17 Bets

Richard Carapaz 2pts win @7/1

Joe Dombrowski 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1 – 1st

Chapeau-meter

Despite a nasty-looking fall about 50km from home, Buitrago proved the strongest on the day for a breakthrough win and a welcome turnaround in the punting stakes. He timed his attack to perfection (… just), overhauling the impressive Leemreize as they crested the final hill. Behind, Landa kicked things off and jumped over Almeida in the GC whilst Carapaz and Hindley appear very evenly matched. Neither Dombrowski or Mollema made the break, which is strange considering Dombrowski’s teammate, De la Cruz, doesn’t look in the shape to get a result and Trek have nothing but stage wins to go for. I’m guessing it’s simply fatigue, which is understandable, but maybe they’ll have another go on the weekend.

Stage 18 Preview

The sprinters that have managed to haul themselves over the mountains this last week are rewarded here with one last chance of a stage victory. It’s a shortish stage at 156km – the Giro organisers perhaps learning from the final flat stage of 2020 – stage 19 into Asti –  which was a ridiculous 258km long. That led to rider protests, reboarding of team buses and a drop off halfway down the road. 

The route includes a really steep fourth-category climb which nears 20% in places, but it’s short at just 1.1km and a full 50km from the line and so unlikely to play a part in determining the outcome. There’s plenty of street furniture to avoid but otherwise it’s a pretty straightforward final with wide, flat roads and cornerless between the fiamma rossa and the line.

Contenders

The Champs-Élysées apart, it’s not unusual for the final flat stage of a Grand Tour to be won by the breakaway, not a sprinter. That’s because many sprinters have already gone home leading to a lack of teams willing to control the break, as well as just general fatigue amongst those that are left – if a strong break gets clear then there just aren’t enough fresh legs to bring it back. 

Given that we still have a strong core of fastmen in the race, together with a trouble-free parcours, I doubt that’ll happen here but it’s not impossible, so we need to analyse both scenarios.

Not something I predicted before the race, but Arnaud Démare has been the standout sprinter of the Giro with three stage wins so far. His team, Groupama-FDJ, have also given their sprinter the most well-organised, effective leadout. It’s no coincidence that often those two go hand in hand. What’s more, they’re still at full strength without a single abandonment within the team. He negotiated the mountain roads well and is the rightful favourite at around 11/4.

Mark Cavendish has handled the mountains less well but still finished comfortably within the time limit on each stage, and considering how crazy some stages have been, that’s a big achievement. It’s clearly more difficult for Cav to win without Mørkøv, but not impossible. He’ll want to put pressure on Fabio Jakobsen for Tour selection, though that dream is looking increasingly unlikely, especially with him likely to complete the three weeks here. 

UAE’s Fernando Gaviria has been close but misfortune, miscalculation and missing legs have conspired to deny him a win. Given he’s managed to catch Covid about 12 times these last two years, he’s due a change in fortune and it would be nice to see him win here. 

But Bahrain-Victorious’ Phil Bauhaus is the sprinter pick at bigger odds. His second on stage 13 was after a long slog and he won the last stage of Tirreno-Adriatico after a tough week, so he clearly benefits from the weariness of others and the bumps on the route are also in his favour. The team will be chipper after their stage win and GC advancement so the German is in, at 8/1, on the nose. 

If it really does get tough then you can’t rule out Mathieu van der Poel. What a performance that was on stage 17. For a long way it looked like he could pull off a Grand Tour mountain stage win in the mould of Wout Van Aert but came up just short. Unbelievably, he seems to have gone up a level particularly with his stamina and climbing and has lit up many a stage in this Giro. So if it comes down to legs, who could write him off? But he’s short enough at around 11/2 considering he said he wouldn’t compete in pure sprints, and who knows? Maybe he’ll be saving himself for the mountains now! Dries de Bondt may be the chosen man for Alpecin in the sprint and he’s also a good option for the breakaway, so the former Belgian champion is much better value at 40/1.

For the break, Magnus Cort looked super impressive on the climbs on stage 17, staying with the favourites a long way up, so he’s clearly riding into form. He may be up the road on Friday and Saturday, but may also go for it here as EF Education chase a stage win. And even if not, he isn’t without a chance in a reduced sprint. As a multiple Grand Tour stage winner, it’s worth keeping the Dane onside when he hits a purple patch. He’s plenty short enough though at just 12/1, so a speculative win bet only on Cort. 

Jumbo-Visma have been very active in forcing breaks and animating stages, and unfortunate not to have added to their single stage victory. If we’re looking for super strong rouleur/time trial types, then Jos van Emden, Edoardo Affini and particularly Pascal Eenkhoorn are all players. Eenkhoorn very nearly pulled off a massive coup with a win on stage 13, only to be denied in the last few hundred metres. Unfortunately, the downside of that effort means he’s unlikely to be given as much rope (the peloton gave the break a generous 7mins that day) should he get up the road this time. Still, at 33s is worth an each way pop. The 150s about Affini looks a bit big too, so we’ll add him to the mix. He might be saving himself for the last day time trial, but we’re nearing the end so might as well have some fun.

Stage 18 Bets

Phil Bauhaus 1pt win @8/1

Magnus Cort 1pt win @12/1

Pascal Eenkhoorn 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Dries de Bondt 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Edoardo Affini 0.5pts each way (3 places) @150/1

Posted 2045 BST Wed 25th May 2022

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