Tour de France 2023

Stage 18 – Moȗtiers > Bourg-en-Bresse (184.7km)

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Stage 17 Result

1st Felix Gall (20/1)

2nd Simon Yates (25/1)

3rd Pello Bilbao (33/1)

4th Jonas Vingegaard (5/2F)

Stage 17 Bets

Jonas Vingegaard 3pts win @5/2 – 4th

Felix Gall 1pts each way (4 places) @20/1 – 1st

Mattias Skjelmose 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Mathieu Burgaudeau 0.25pts each way (4 places) @80/1

What a ride by Gall in another bonkers stage which left riders all over the mountain. With Pogačar dropped early and Kuss pulling, it looked set up for Vingegaard to take the stage but even he couldn’t get to Gall (helped a little by Thomas Voeckler’s stalled moto) who was on a special day. Another great ride from Skjelmose, but in the services of Ciccone. Burgaudeau fell back into the grupetto – he’ll no doubt try again on Saturday if he has the legs.

Stage 18 Preview

After hauling themselves over the mountains, stage 18 is another chance for the sprinters, at least those that are still left. There are two fourth-category climbs on a route that isn’t completely flat, but all things being equal, should end in a bunch finish.

The final isn’t too technical – they’ll go steadily downhill into Bourg-en-Bresse, take a left-hander 1.5km out where a good position will be handy, before the road sweeps to the right for a final uphill drag to the line.  

Stage 18 Contenders

So-called sprint stages late in a Grand Tour often don’t turn out to be quite so straightforward. A mixture of extreme fatigue and a lack of sprint teams to control make the chance of a breakaway win a lot more likely than it ordinarily would be given the parcours.

Stage 17 was brutal and claimed another victim in the sprinters’ ranks with Phil Bauhaus stepping off after just 50km, presumably sick or just exhausted. He joins fellow fast men Fabio Jakobsen, Caleb Ewan and Mark Cavendish that won’t make it to Paris this year.

So we’re struggling for sprint teams that will take responsibility for policing and controlling the break, and that gives it a decent chance of surviving. Who will ride? And might sprint teams try to sneak one of their own into the early move to remove any responsibility behind?

One would think that Alpecin-Deceuninck would be up the front on guard duty for Jasper Philipsen (10/11). He’s exceeded expectations with four stage wins and has confirmed his position as the best sprinter in the world. As Philipsen has his wins, might Alpecin allow Mathieu van der Poel (20/1) to go for the break? If not, he should be there as Philipsen’s deluxe lead-out to launch him on an uphill finish that’s ideal.

Dylan Groenewegen (11/2) appears to have ridden himself into the Tour with ever-improving results – eighth, fifth, fourth and then an excellent second on the most recent sprint finish on stage 11. His climbing has been a worry and he was one of the last to roll over the line on stage 17, but still a comfortable 4mins inside the time limit. Jayco-AlUla will surely put their hand up and back Groenewegen for a chance of a stage win.

With the Tour pretty much in the bag, there’s no need for Jumbo-Visma to keep Wout van Aert (6/1) back for the final mountain stage on Saturday and so he should be given the green light here. Van Aert hasn’t quite looked his superhuman best over the last few stages – getting turned over by Wout Poels on stage 15 and then dropping off early on stage 17 – but he still has power to burn and can be dangerous in a sprint, especially one with an uphill drag like this one.

Christophe Laporte (50/1) is always one to watch around this stage of the race too. He’s put in so much hard work for Jumbo-Visma that, like last year, he may be rewarded with his own chance of glory.

Another who’ll like this finish is Mads Pedersen (10/1) who’s been putting in some great work carting Giulio Ciccone into breakaways. He also popped up with an excellent ninth in the time trial showing he’s getting stronger, or at least less fatigued than others, as the race goes on. Pedersen’s Lidl-Trek teammate, Jasper Stuyven (66/1), would be a good man to get up the road just in case it doesn’t all come back together.

Like Pedersen, the chances of Biniam Girmay (40/1) are improved by the kilometres put into the faster men’s legs over the last two weeks. The rise to the line helps too in his bid for a landmark win.

It hasn’t been a great Tour for DSM-Firmenich but at least, with Romain Bardet abandoning, they can focus all their efforts on positioning Sam Welsford (25/1) who has survived the mountains a lot more easily than some predicted. 10th is his best finish so far though.

Bora-Hansgrohe’s Jordi Meeus (50/1) was in the mix on stage 11 despite not having his lead-out man Danny van Poppel (200/1) by his side, but he got blocked, had a wheel slip, and finished down in 11th. Meeus could improve on his best result of sixth from stage 7.

For breakaway candidates, look for strong rouleur types – Magnus Cort (22/1), Victor Campanaerts (66/1), Matej Mohorič (40/1), Fred Wright (40/1), Nils Politt (66/1), Pascal Eenkhoorn (200/1), Remi Cavagna (66/1), Kasper Asgreen (50/1). If a selection of those are allowed up the road, it isn’t coming back.

Philipsen’s the most likely winner, obviously, but is too short for a stage this late in the Tour where random things might happen. Pedersen is looking super strong and let’s throw in Eenkhoorn at a huge price as a breakaway option with a fast finish.

Stage 18 Bets

Mads Pedersen 1pt each way (3 places) @10/1

Pascal Eenkhoorn 0.25pts each way (3 places) @200/1

Posted 21:15 BST 19th July 2023

Prices (in brackets) to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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