Tour de France 2024
Stage 18 – Gap > Barcelonnette (179km)
Thu 18th July | Scheduled start: 13:00 CET
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Stage 18 Preview
Where: In the foothills of the Southern French Alps.
Stage Type: Hilly.
Weather: Very hot again, 30˚ and dry.
Climbs: Five third-category climbs evenly spaced across the 180km route.
Start: The road rises after 15km towards the third-category Col du Festre (3.9km at 6.3%) which is where the early breakaway skirmishes should be fought.
Finish: Despite the final classified climb being summited 40km from home, there’s plenty of uphill road left for decisive moves to be made amongst those strong enough to still be ahead. The final 10km or so are flattish so a sprint may be required to take the win.
Stage suits: Pretty much everyone bar GC favourites and pure sprinters will fancy their chances of a stage victory here.
Breakaway chances: Excellent. Of all the stages in this year’s Tour de France, this looks the most nailed on for a breakaway win. There’s no value in any team chasing the break down so whoever gets ahead should stay ahead.
What will happen?: Massive fight for the breakaway. There’s always a certain amount of luck involved in catching the right move, but the terrain should reduce the chances of strong stage contenders being left behind like we saw on stage 17. It will end in a breakaway win, most likely from a small group sprint.
Stage 18 Contenders
You could make a case for half the peloton but here are a select few:
Wout van Aert (5/1; 6.0) announced his plan to target this stage. Suits his characteristics as Visma Lease a Bike look for another stage win. Price is short considering how many will be up for this and will be somewhat of a marked man.
Christophe Laporte (28/1; 29.0) is a great backup should things not fall for Van Aert. There’ll be better climbers than these two in the break but on top form could just about stay with them.
Mathieu van der Poel (8/1; 9.0) has improved as the Tour’s gone on. Gets his own chance here after helping Jasper Philipsen to three stage wins.
Magnus Cort (10/1; 11.0) boxed on for an excellent seventh on stage 17 after being in the breakaway all day. Although a bit unnecessary, shows his legs are there and this stage suits him better.
Jonas Abrahamsen (150/1; 151.0) wouldn’t be a bad card for Uno-X Mobility to have up the road alongside Cort. The former polka dot wearer is super strong and can punch his way up short climbs.
Ben Healy (20/1; 21.0) put in a shift to get Richard Carapaz back to the front of the race on stage 17. He should be rewarded with his own chance here and would be a shame if he left the Tour empty handed. Probably has to win solo so the flat finish isn’t ideal.
Rui Costa (50/1; 51.0) is another excellent option for EF Education EasyPost. Has the smarts and the fast finish to win a day like this.
Alex Aranburu (25/1; 26.0) rarely won until just before the Tour when he landed a stage in the Belgian Tour and the Spanish national title. Somehow ended stage 17 in tenth – he’s going well.
Oier Lazkano (25/1; 26.0) was active as always trying to make the splits on stage 17, then missed the big one that went. Like Healy, deserves something out of the race considering how much he’s animated it.
Jasper Stuyven (22/1; 23.0) will have targeted this stage which looks tailormade for him.
Toms Skujiņš (50/1; 51.0) finished alongside Aranburu on stage 17 and at double the price, probably offers better value than Stuyven as a Lidl-Trek option.
Stephen Williams (33/1; 34.0) looked a possible winner of stage 17 at one point but faded as the slopes got steeper. This probably suits him more – has a big chance if up the road.
Matteo Sobrero (75/1; 76.0) could be the best option for Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe on stage 18. Is a decent price but isn’t a prolific winner.
Arnaud De Lie (100/1; 101.0) is climbing well and is the most likely of the fast men to challenge for the win.
Georg Zimmermann (150/1; 151.0) is a triple-figure tempter on a course that suits.
Stage 18 Bets
Plenty will want to be up the road and race dynamics could get complicated. Riders could easily get stuck behind marking if a teammate jumps ahead, so a whole lot of luck will be needed.
Wout van Aert and Magnus Cort must have massive chances but, on price, let’s leave them out. Instead, let’s keep the faith with Ben Healy and hope he can muscle his way clear before the flat finish.
Ben Healy 2pts win @20/1
Jasper Stuyven 1pt each way (5 places) @20/1
Alex Aranburu 1pt each way (5 places) @25/1
Oier Lazkano 1pt each way (5 places) @22/1 – 5th
Toms Skujiņš 0.5pts each way (5 places) @50/1 – 4th
Georg Zimmermann 0.5pts each way (5 places) @150/1
Posted 20:50 BST Wed 17th July 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 18 Result
1st Victor Campenaerts (70/1)
2nd Mattéo Vercher (400/1)
3rd Michał Kwiatkowski (50/1)
4th Tom Skujiņš (50/1)
5th Oier Lazkano (22/1)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
