Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 18 – Fiera di Primiero - Padova (178km)
Thu 23rd May | Scheduled start: 13:05 CET
Profile
Stage 17 Result
1st Georg Steinhauser (16/1)
2nd Tadej Pogačar (3/1F)
3rd Antonio Tiberi (50/1)
4th Geraint Thomas (80/1)
Stage 17 Bets
Michael Storer 2pts each way (4 places) @10/1
Einer Rubio 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1 – 6th
Jan Hirt 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1 – 9th
Attila Valter 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1
Right man, wrong day but chapeau all the same, that was a great ride by Steinhauser on a stage where normal race dynamics just didn’t apply. Rubio almost saved the day, but his digs were closely followed and, in the end, finished just outside the frame.
Stage 18 Preview
The sprinters get another chance with a largely flat parcours that should end in a bunch finish. There’s a short fourth-category climb 15km in where the break will need to be policed well, but given the 160km or so of road remaining there ought to be ample time for it to be pegged and brought back.
For the run-in, there’ll be a fight to be in front for a crucial left-hander just after the flamme rouge and then again for a sweeping right-hander 500 metres later. After that, the finish is flat, wide and straight.
Stage 18 Contenders
Jonathan Milan (Evs; 2.00) is the dominant sprinter at this year’s Giro with three stage wins. You never know how well sprinters will perform after three tough mountain days but if the Lidl-Trek leadout repeat the perfect job they did on stage 13, then it’s difficult to see past another Milan win.
Tim Merlier (7/2; 4.50) has probably suffered more than Milan over the last few days but he’s still here for a reason and if positioned well has the speed to challenge.
Kaden Groves (14/1; 15.0) should on paper be the freshest of the sprinters given that he’s the most accomplished climber. Things haven’t clicked for the Alpecin-Deceuninck train but they have another chance to put it right here.
Alberto Dainese (18/1; 19.0) has only once broken into the top 10 though has produced similar curate’s egg performances at the last two Giri where a stage win in each has come out of the blue.
Filippo Ganna (20/1; 21.0) got his stage win in the second time trial so the pressure is off. Given that some sprinters have gone home there might be less chaos in the final which might encourage Ganna to go for the sprint, but it isn’t guaranteed.
Juan Sebastián Molano (20/1; 21.0) has done plenty of work in the mountains for Tadej Pogačar and that will have fatigued him – though any more so than the other sprinters? Maybe not. Molano has done well in the sprints so far and perhaps been a little unlucky. A win in the third week of a Grand Tour against tired legs isn’t out of the question.
Caleb Ewan (28/1; 29.0) looks overpriced given his pedigree but appears to be lacking confidence in the sprints. He’s without his wingman, Luka Mezgec, though his train wasn’t working anyway, so maybe following someone else’s will work better.
Stanisław Aniołkowski (33/1; 34.0) was an excellent runner-up on stage 13 though that fell apart somewhat and produced a surprising top 5. Something similar would probably need to happen again for Aniołkowski to make the frame.
We’re in the final week of a Grand Tour and there’ll be plenty of fatigue in the peloton which could produce a surprise result. On that basis, it’s worth opposing Milan, especially at such a short price.
Kaden Groves still has something to prove in this Giro and Alpecin-Deceuninck will be motivated to put right their mistakes. Also, despite his workload in the mountains, it’s possible that the durable Juan Sebastián Molano has come out of those stages better than most, and in a UAE team on a high could go close.
Stage 18 Bets
Kaden Groves 1pt each way (4 places) @12/1
Juan Sebastián Molano 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1
Posted 21:06 BST Wed 22nd May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
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