Stage 19 – Marano Lagunare > Santuario di Castelmonte (178km)

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Stage 18 Result

1st Dries DE BONDT (40/1)

2nd Edoardo AFFINI (150/1)

3rd Magnus CORT (12/1)

4th Davide GABBURO (150/1)

Stage 18 Bets

Phil Bauhaus 1pt win @8/1

Magnus Cort 1pt win @12/1 – 3rd

Pascal Eenkhoorn 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Dries de Bondt 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1 – 1st

Edoardo Affini 0.5pts each way (3 places) @150/1 – 2nd

Chapeau-meter

Had I been wired up to Whoop like some of the riders, then my stress data would’ve been off the charts for that final 25km. Prior to that it looked like an inevitable catch, but with so much fatigue in the peloton, a breakaway win on the final flat stage is always in play. And they played it brilliantly – backing up the peloton to save their legs and then putting the hammer down 60km out. In the end, sprint teams just ran out of fresh legs. Cort was a win bet and so no return, but let’s not be greedy – a fantastic result to get back in the black.

Stage 19 Preview

After the Grande Partenza in Hungary, the Giro visits its third country on stage 19 with a hop over the border into Slovenia for a 40km stretch between two classified climbs. The second of those up to Kolovrat is a first-category and the toughest of the day – 10.3km at an average of 9.2%, hitting double digits in places. It’s in two steps, with a kilometre long flat section in the middle, but we’re sure to see attacks and the peloton whittled down to the strongest few. The summit finish isn’t quite as testing – 7.1km at 7.8%, max.14% – but it’s still hard enough, especially after three weeks of racing, for differences to be made.

Contenders

The penultimate mountain stage of this Giro, or should that be medium-mountain? It’s tough but not as tough as Saturday’s final road stage up the Marmolada, so what might the tactics be here? Ineos and Richard Carapaz are defending a lead, albeit a tiny one of just 3secs, so it’s incumbent upon others to set the race up and attack. But would Jai Hindley be content to take it to the final time trial around Verona with a small deficit? Carapaz tends to be the faster of the two in time trials, however, Hindley has apparently improved and so too has Bora’s TT bike tech. In the end, the decision will probably be made on the road based on how they’re feeling. If either feels they have the legs, they will attack, but they must leave something in the tank for Saturday. 

Assuming Mikel Landa is not content with the third step on the podium, as the weakest time trialist of the three, he must try something to try to claw back some time. Will that be here, or again, will Bahrain go all in on stage 20? As the quickest sprinter of the three, should it all come back together, Hindley is the favourite and GC saver at 12/1.

Given the potential for some cageyness between the favourites, the stage leans towards another breakaway win. Unfortunately for the specialists, the first 70km of the stage are pretty flat which will make it difficult for the break to form and especially tricky for lighter climbers to make it in. 

We’ve got a pretty good idea now which riders have got some form and are capable of finishing off a move from a break. The downside is that there’s not much value about with all those riders near the top of the market. 

A lot will depend on the tactics of Bora and Bahrain as both teams have riders on top form that could win from a break. Lennard Kämna looked the winner for a long way on stage 16 and has the strength to make selections on flatter roads. But will he be allowed up the road with Hindley lying in second? Or will rival teams even allow him up the road? Who knows, but I think we need him with us.

The Bahrain-Victorious pair of Santiago Buitrago and Wout Poels were the standout riders of stage 17 … well, along with Mathieu van der Poel of course. But they may also be put to work for Landa. I hope not. Especially Poels who apparently had a bout of sickness halfway through the Giro but is now looking better than ever. Set him free!

Others near the top of the market such as Davide Formolo, Giulio Ciccone and Lucas Hamilton I can’t have. Since his third on stage 7, Formolo has disappointed in every break he’s made, Ciccone has his win and appears to have peaked, and Hamilton has been pretty anonymous apart from his seventh into Genoa on stage 12. They’re all classy and clearly could win, but they’re in no way value. 

With a tenth place and two fourths in the last three mountain stages, Hugh Carthy’s form has been building nicely and is the favourite with most firms at around 10/1. But he hasn’t quite been able to finish off those promising situations and, as a team leader who came in with GC ambitions, has been lent on somewhat in the breaks. What’s more, Saturday’s tougher stage probably suits him better, though is also less likely to be won by the break. He’s a player, but plenty short enough.

It was unfortunate that Trek’s Juanpe López got caught out behind the peloton on stage 19 and now looks vulnerable to losing the maglia bianca for best young rider to Buitrago. It also meant that Bauke Mollema had to put in a shift to try to get him back on – energy he could’ve done with saving ahead of this. With Saturday looking a bit tough for the Dutchman and assuming the legs are still operational, he’ s sure to be targeting this. He’s in as the final pick of hopefuls, albeit at some skinny prices and no bookie offering four places – scandalous!

Stage 19 Bets

Jai Hindley 1pt win @12/1

Lennard Kämna 1pt win @14/1 

Wout Poels 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt win @14/1

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (3 places) @18/1

Posted 2110 BST Thu 26th May 2022

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