Tour de France 2024

Stage 19 – Embrun > Isola 2000 (145km)

Fri 19th July | Scheduled start: 12:20 CET

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Where: First of two stages in the southern French Alps.

Stage Type: Mountain.

Weather: Mid-20s and dry, colder as they go up of course.  

Climbs: Two hors-categorie climbs followed by a first-category summit finish all packed into just 145km. The hors-category Cime de la Bonnette (22.9km at 6.8%) has some very tough gradients near the top and is the highest road in France at 2,800m above sea level.

Start: Some rolling terrain until the intermediate sprint point 21km in, and then up the hors-categorie Col de Vars (18.8km at 5.7%) where we can expect a breakaway of climbers to establish itself.

Finish: A first-category climb to the Isola 2000 ski resort (16.1km at 7.1%). The first half of the climb averages 8.4% with plenty of double-digit sections, but the second half averages ‘just’ 6% which may determine where riders attack.

Stage suits: GC favourites and Grand Tour level climbers not in GC contention.  

Breakaway chances: Below 50/50. The length of the climbs and the summit finish will make it very difficult for the break to stay away. However, it depends entirely on the tactics behind – if no team takes it up and some excellent climbers are given a decent head start then it has a chance.  

What will happen?: A big group of climbers will form the breakaway on the Col de Vars. Who will ride? UAE Team Emirates may feel the best form of defence is attack and push ahead to turn the screw even harder on Visma Lease a Bike. Jonas Vingegaard’s team did what they could last Sunday but he ultimately lost time – will they keep trying or defend second place on the podium? Wout van Aert and Bart Lemmen were up the road on stage 18 which isn’t ideal if they were planning an all-in attack here. Whether GC teams hit it hard on the Cime de la Bonnette or Isola 2000, the stage is likely to be won by a GC favourite.

Stage 19 Contenders

Tadej Pogačar (5/6; 1.83) is the overwhelming favourite to win stage 19. His wobble on stage 11, due to a fuelling issue or whatever, seems a long time ago now as he shows off his dominance at every opportunity. If his UAE Team Emirates troops still have the legs, they’ll surely set Pogačar up for another stage win.

Jonas Vingegaard (5/1; 6.0) looked a beaten man as his head dropped trying to respond to yet another Pogačar attack on stage 17. These higher, longer climbs should in theory suit him better, but after a truncated build-up to the Tour it feels like his form may be on the downturn.

Remco Evenepoel (9/1; 10.0) is less than 2mins behind Vingegaard on GC which isn’t much with such a tough weekend of climbing ahead. Evenepoel has ridden a very mature race and could have his eye on the second step of the podium.

Carlos Rodriguez (66/1; 67.0) disappointed a little on stage 15 finishing over 2mins behind Evenepoel on terrain that should have favoured him. Hasn’t had enough mountain domestique support from his Ineos teammates, which can’t help. He’s super consistent though and reversing that result can’t be ruled out.

João Almeida (80/1; 81.0) boxed on well for fifth on stage 15 and, with Adam Yates (100/1; 101.0) seemingly a bit under the weather, may be the pick of the rest. Will be working for Pogačar of course but, once that job is done, you could see him dieseling past others on the final climb to make the frame.

For the breakaway:

Riders battling for a top 10 placing – Giulio Ciccone (40/1; 41.0), Derek Gee (80/1; 81.0), Santiago Buitrago (50/1; 51.0) and Felix Gall (40/1; 41.0) – may try for the break but it’s a huge risk if it doesn’t pay off as the matches burned will be needed at the end of the day. They’re probably wise to sit in with the other GC boys but you never know and obviously would be big favourites should the break go all the way.

Richard Carapaz (8/1; 9.0) looks the pick of those outside the top 10 on GC and is favoured by the high-altitude climbs. The price isn’t generous considering a breakaway win is not a likely outcome, however.

Simon Yates (16/1; 17.0) looked the stage winner for a moment on Wednesday before Carapaz came up to him, then good luck beating the Ecuadorian in a dog fight. Has chances from the break again and will no doubt be in it.

Stage 19 Bets

It’s difficult to see past Tadej Pogačar for the stage win but the very short price reflects that. Looking elsewhere, the high altitude favours Santiago Buitrago either with a cheeky move into the break or even to make the frame amongst the GC men.

Richard Carapaz looks in the mood to stick it to the Ecuadorian Olympic Committee as much as possible and, like Buitrago, is favoured by the high climbs.

And let’s throw in João Almeida to make the frame, or maybe even Pogačar is in a gifting mood? Almost certainly not.

Richard Carapaz 2pts win @8/1 – 4th

Santiago Buitrago 1pt each way (4 places) @50/1

João Almeida 1pt each way (4 places) @80/1 – 7th

Posted 20:32 BST Thu 18th July 2024

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 19 Result

1st Tadej Pogačar (5/6F)

2nd Matteo Jorgenson (125/1)

3rd Simon Yates (16/1)

4th Richard Carapaz (8/1)

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]