Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 19 – Logroño > Alto de Moncalvillo (173km)
Fri 6th Sep | KM0: 13:29 CET
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Stage 19 Preview
Where: An anticlockwise loop starting from Logroño, the capital of La Rioja in northern Spain.
Stage Type: Classified is hilly but ends with a first-category climb.
Weather: High teens, maybe a bit of rain early on.
Climbs: Just the two – a modest third-category climb in the middle of the route and then a summit finish up the first-category Alto de Moncalvillo (8.6km at 8.9%).
Start: Rolling, gently rising ground all the way up to the peak of the first climb will mean lightweight climbers may need a tow into the break by a rouleur teammate. It also means it should be relatively easy for Decathon AG2R La Mondiale to ensure no GC threats sneak up the road.
Finish: The Alto de Moncalvillo is hardest in the final 5km which average over 10% and therefore should be where we see sparks fly amongst the GC men.
Stage suits: GC favourites and other very good climbers out of GC contention.
Breakaway chances: 50/50 as it all depends on the tactics behind. We’ve seen that no team has been willing or able to drive a hard pace early – in fact it seems like a deliberate tactic with regards to Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe – and if that plays out again then the break could get enough lead to take the day.
What will happen?: A big group will get clear and Decathlon will start riding at a steady pace. Will another GC team take it up early? It’s unclear who a hard pace actually favours out of the leading players so they may all keep their men fresh for the final climb (and stage 20). More than likely, Red Bull will put the hammer down going into the final climb knowing that a sudden change in pace is the best way to put O’Connor into difficulty. Summit finishes tend to favour a win for the GC group and the parcours with few ups and downs makes it easier to control and set up that scenario, but will they do it or leave the breakaway to take the day?
Stage 19 Contenders
Primož Roglič (7/2; 4.5) hasn’t looked unbeatable and in fact has been distanced at times but, given the time gaps and the fact the last stage is a time trial, is a very strong favourite to be in red by Madrid. Won on the Alto de Moncalvillo in 2020 and is clearly suited by the tough final gradients.
Enric Mas (11/2) has kept pace with Roglič on all climbs bar the Puerto de Ancares but needs to start taking time out of the Slovenian if he wants to end the race on the top step. Hopefully, we see an attacking ride from the Movistar man.
Richard Carapaz (9/1) is being typically combative and was able to expose a weakness in Mikel Landa on stage 18. There isn’t the terrain for another ambush here though, it’s just fastest man to the top and in this form that could be Carapaz.
For the breakaway:
Max Poole (12/1) was at it again on stage 18 with another third place (his fourth top 3 this Vuelta) to prove that he’s not just an excellent climber. The rolling start is pretty good for him and if he has the legs will surely go for the break again.
Eddie Dunbar (16/1) finished with the front GC group on stage 18 showing his legs are still excellent and at 12mins 25secs down should have some licence to get up the road. Filippo Zana (28/1) who showed very well up to Lagos de Covadonga is another great option for Jayco AlUla and even Mauro Schmid (50/1) can’t entirely be ruled out given his form.
Sepp Kuss (25/1) has leaked a bit more time on GC but will most likely be marked out of the breakaway as a threat to top 5 and 10 placings. If not, then of course has a great chance of a stage win.
Adam Yates (25/1) is in a similar position to Kuss at 8mins 40secs down, Marc Soler (33/1) looked to finally lose his legs a bit on stage 18 and Jay Vine (25/1) who finished only fourth up to Covadonga despite looking like the chosen man, are all options for UAE Team Emirates.
Pablo Castrillo (22/1) and his Equipo Kern Pharma teammates are having some Vuelta. Was in the break again on stage 18 but is showing no signs of fatigue. A third stage win? Why not.
Mattia Cattaneo (25/1) has done some tireless domestique work this Vuelta and was finally rewarded with a shot at a stage win … only to be told to go back and help Mikel Landa (25/1) limit his losses. Maybe after a robust discussion over dinner he may be given another day pass for this.
Stage 19 Bets
Enric Mas to win if it comes back together or Eddie Dunbar from the break if he can get into it. The other three break options are strong riders who are favoured by the flattish start.
Enric Mas 2pts win @11/2 – 4th
Eddie Dunbar 2pts to win and 4 places @14/1 – 7th
Pablo Castrillo 1pt to win and 4 places @20/1
Mattia Cattaneo 1pt to win and 4 places @25/1
Mauro Schmid 0.5pts to win and 4 places @50/1
Posted 20:14 BST Thu 5th Sep 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 19 Result
1st Primož Roglič (7/2F)
2nd David Gaudu (40/1)
3rd Mattias Skjelmose (33/1)
4th Enric Mas (11/2)
[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
