Tour de France 2024
Stage 20 – Nice > Col de la Couillole (133km)
Sat 20th July | Scheduled start: 13:35 CET
Profile
Stage 20 Preview
Where: Starts in Nice and goes north back into the Alps.
Stage Type: Mountain.
Weather: Hot and dry again.
Climbs: Four classified climbs and over 4,500m of altitude gain across a route of only 133km.
Start: Rising ground towards the foot of the first climb of the day – the second-category Col de Braus (10km at 6.6%).
Finish: A summit finish up the Col de la Couillole (15.7km at 7.1%) which has a pretty equal gradient all the way up.
Stage suits: GC favourites and excellent climbers.
Breakaway chances: Good. It’s up to UAE Team Emirates really as other teams don’t have the strength to push a hard pace all day without making themselves more vulnerable. Tadej Pogačar indicated after stage 19 that he’d be happy to let a break fight it out for the win – do we believe him? It’s a short stage which doesn’t tend to help a breakaway as it could be full gas all day, but everyone might be happy to let it go.
What will happen?: A group of strong climbers will form the break either on the first climb or on the second – the first-category Col de Turini (20.7km at 5.7%). If Pogačar is true to his word, the day will end in a breakaway win.
Stage 20 Contenders
With time gaps as they are, riders inside the top 10 may fancy a chance of a stage win here. Positions will be marked and protected so we may see none of them or all of them up the road.
Simon Yates (7/1; 8.0) looked the best we’ve seen him this Tour on stage 19 but fell just short of the win. Has another big chance here.
Richard Carapaz (8/1; 9.0) is now in the polka dot jersey and securing that will be his main goal here. Just lost his legs at the death on stage 19 and chasing those mountain points may remove the edge needed to win.
Matteo Jorgenson (10/1; 11.0) came agonisingly close to winning stage 19. Surely Visma Lease a Bike will give him another chance here.
Wilko Kelderman (33/1; 34.0) did some great work to try to set up Jorgenson. Clearly has great legs and could go close if Jorgenson isn’t in the mix.
Enric Mas (14/1; 15.0) is hitting top form, a bit too late to be a GC contender unfortunately. Difficult to back at such short odds given how infrequently he wins.
Felix Gall (18/1; 19.0) had a disappointing day losing 10mins on his top 10 rivals. That gives him freedom to chase a stage win here though. So was it all a plan?
Giulio Ciccone (20/1; 21.0) lost a bit of time on stage 19 and dropped two places on GC. May go for the stage win to save the Tour for Lidl-Trek. Carlos Verona (100/1; 101.0) would be a good card for them to play however he seems stuck with Ciccone.
Santiago Buitrago (20/1; 21.0) is just 10secs off Ciccone and a top 10 slot. Will be hunting that down but it isn’t necessarily incompatible with challenging for the stage.
Adam Yates (20/1; 21.0) has apparently been unwell but still rode a decent stage 19. Pogačar is probably safe enough to give a couple of his men licence to get up the road.
João Almeida (25/1; 26.0) is sitting fourth on GC and may not have quite the same freedom which is a shame as Almeida deserves a shot at a stage win.
Derek Gee (33/1; 34.0) is riding a great race and could cap it off with a stage win here if in the break.
Tadej Pogačar (3/1; 4.0) will win should it come back together unless he manufactures some kind of gift to a teammate, suffers a catastrophic loss in form or crashes.
Stage 20 Bets
This could play out a few different ways but on balance a breakaway win amongst some of the best climbers outside of the podium is probably the favourite.
Matteo Jorgenson has a great chance if he’s recovered physically and mentally from his efforts on stage 19, and as it’s the final road stage, let’s throw in Derek Gee and João Almeida with him.
Matteo Jorgenson 2pts win @10/1
João Almeida 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1
Derek Gee 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1
Posted 21:12 BST Fri 19th July 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 20 Result
1st Tadej Pogačar (3/1F)
2nd Jonas Vingegaard (33/1)
3rd Richard Carapaz (10/1; 11.0)
4th Remco Evenepoel (25/1; 26.0)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
