Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 20 – Villarcayo > Picón Blanco (172km)
Sat 7th Sep | KM0: 13:06 CET
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Stage 20 Preview
Where: The Cantabrian Mountains in northern Spain.
Stage Type: Mountain. In fact, a ridiculous 4,700m of altitude gain throughout the day. Ouch!
Weather: Sunshine and showers, pleasant temperatures.
Climbs: Loads. Seven classified climbs including three first category – Portillo de Lunada (14km at 6.1%), Puerto de los Tornos (11.3km at 6%) and a summit finish up Picón Blanco (7.9km at 9.1%).
Start: More or less straight up a relatively shallow (9.2km at 3.1%) third-category climb followed by a big 15km descent then into another third-category effort (5.8km at 5.9%). It will be difficult to control the front of the race with just about anybody with legs trying to get up the road.
Finish: Picón Blanco is a super tough climb with a 3km section in the middle averaging 10.5% – plenty hard enough for significant time to be won and lost.
Stage suits: GC favourites and excellent climbers out of GC contention.
Breakaway chances: 50/50. This could explode early amongst the GC contenders which would doom any chance of the break. On the other hand, there should be some excellent climbers up ahead who won’t need a huge lead before the last climb to take the day.
What will happen?: A mega-break of GC satellite riders, climbers outside the top 10 downwards and plenty others trying to get a head start on the race will eventually form, but it may take a while. How early will attacks fly? Given Roglič now leads by almost 2mins, this will be as much about the fight for the podium and the white jersey than it is for red. We can expect maybe EF Education EasyPost or Soudal Quick-Step to try something on the penultimate climb or earlier., so it could get selective very early. The GC fight on Picón Blanco will most likely also be for the stage win but it’s far from certain.
Stage 20 Contenders
Primož Roglič (7/2) was super impressive on stage 19 though had some strange comments afterwards about how certain members of the team wanted to go for the win even though he didn’t. So maybe not as confident as the performance suggests, if you believe him. It won’t look good in hindsight should he blow up here, but anything like that level again and he can take the Queen Stage win and, barring accidents, cement his fourth Vuelta title.
Enric Mas (6/1) tried but didn’t get close to pulling back Roglič. Another Vuelta podium awaits but he needs to put time into O’Connor so can’t ride too defensively.
Richard Carapaz (7/1) needs to distance both O’Connor and Mas to better his chance of a podium spot and is the most likely out of the GC favourites to try an early attack.
David Gaudu (14/1) has been getting better and better and could threaten the podium spots if he has an exceptional day.
Mattias Skjelmose (20/1) tends to get caught out when attacks fly and prefers to ride his own pace. A fast finish could see him get into the frame again.
For the breakaway:
Eddie Dunbar (16/1) was the best of those not in GC contention on stage 19 – surely he’ll get up the road and has every chance of a second stage win.
Sepp Kuss (16/1) fought his way back up to Dunbar having been distanced. The steep final slopes suit and it would be fitting for last year’s winner to take the Queen Stage.
Matthew Riccitello (25/1) beat Ben O’Connor home and looks back on top form after his first week fall.
Marc Soler (33/1) and Jay Vine (33/1) of UAE Team Emirates are separated by just one point in the mountains competition so it will be interesting to see how that plays out assuming they both get up the road. For the first time this Vuelta, Soler looked a bit tired on stage 18 and Vine took a tumble on stage 19 so may be best left out of the pot for the stage win. Adam Yates (25/1) seems to be going backwards but if he’s been keeping something in reserve then has the class to finish off a big day like this.
Mattia Cattaneo (33/1) may get another chance to get up the road following the debacle on stage 18 though Mikel Landa (20/1) will need him if he’s planning a Hail Mary.
Max Poole (33/1) had somewhat of an easier day on stage 19 so might be refreshed for another shot at a stage win. It would be good to see it, so up the road.
Stage 20 Bets
It’s difficult to see past Primož Roglič – the win is probably there if he wants it. But on price, let’s go for David Gaudu as the GC bet. From the breakaway, Sepp Kuss should have good mountain support with him up the road and has the class to finish it off.
David Gaudu 1pt to win and 4 places @12/1
Sepp Kuss 1pt to win and 4 places @16/1
Posted 21:28 BST Fri 6th Sep 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 20 Result
1st Eddie Dunbar (14/1)
2nd Enric Mas (6/1)
3rd Primož Roglič (7/2F)
4th Richard Carapaz (7/1)
[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
