Tour de France 2023

Stage 20 – Belfort > Le Markstein Fellering (133.3km)

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Stage 19 Result

1st Matej Mohorič (14/1)

2nd Kasper Asgreen (50/1)

3rd Ben O’Connor (500/1)

4th Jasper Philipsen (6/1F)

5th Mads Pedersen (8/1)

Stage 19 Bets

Matej Mohorič 0.5pts each way (5 places) @14/1 – 1st

Fred Wright 0.5pts each way (5 places) @20/1

Nils Politt 0.5pts each way (5 places) @20/1

Jasper Stuyven 0.5pts each way (5 places) @33/1

Rasmus Tiller 0.25pts each way (5 places) @80/1

Yves Lampaert 0.25pts each way (5 places) @80/1

That was brutal stuff, like a one-day classic. Another great win for Bahrain-Victorious, with Mohorič’s well-timed bike throw the difference between him and Asgreen on the line. All the picks tried for the break at one time or another. Politt made it in, but then was out of it again and luckless with a broken chain.

Stage 20 Preview

A short, intense final mountain stage with six classified climbs before the ride into Paris on Sunday. Any matches still left in the book will be burned in a last-ditch effort to get a stage win, climb higher on general classification or, in the case of Giulio Ciccone, fight to secure the polka dot jersey.

As you’d expect, the hardest climbs are at the end with two first-category tests – Petit Ballon (9.3km at 8.1%) and the more difficult Col de Platzerwasel (7.1km at 8.4%) with sections above 9% before going over 10% at the summit.

A long second-category climb begins the stage, so it should be straightforward, albeit exhausting, for those climbers with anything left to get into the day’s break. But will it stay away?

Stage 20 Contenders

The last two days have shown how tired the riders are and many will be looking to just survive this stage within the time limit, never mind win it. Barring disaster, the top step of the GC podium is secure with Jonas Vingegaard (2/1) ready to take back-to-back Tour de France titles. But other places – second, third, top 5, top 10 – are still in play and the tactics of all those teams involved will be interesting.

UAE Team Emirates are sitting in second and third with Tadej Pogačar (5/1) and Adam Yates (33/1) which, although not what they came for, they’ll want to defend. Pogačar has said all the right things about chasing a stage win, but he looks beat and ready for home, so it’s more likely they’ll be on the defensive rather than risk blowing those two up and losing their podium spots.

Vingegaard doesn’t have a road stage win – his and Jumbo-Visma’s only win in this year’s Tour was the time trial – so he could be motivated to put that right. If they keep the break on a tight leash, we’ll know that this is the plan. They may also think of rewarding Sepp Kuss (28/1) for his excellent work by letting him go up the road and then leave the chasing to others.

As we saw on stage 17, we could well see several top 10 GC riders going for the break and that could have a domino effect all the way up to the yellow jersey with the race exploding on the first climb. It seems likely that the stage will be won by one of the best climbers in the race but whether they come from behind in the GC group or make the risky effort to get in the break, we’ll have to see.  

Ineos Grenadiers’ directeur sportif, Steve Cummings, said he expected the stage to ‘blow apart’ though whether they’ll be doing the exploding is unclear. Carlos Rodríguez (66/1) sits 1min 16secs behind Yates in third and so must attack at some point, most likely on the final or penultimate climb. Tom Pidcock (28/1) will have a free hand to go for the stage win but others make more appeal given how his level has dropped off.

Stage 17 winner Felix Gall (10/1) sits just six points behind Giulio Ciccone (40/1) in the mountains competition but will also want to cement his eighth place on GC, so the Austrian has a bit of a dilemma as to how to ride. He would need to deny Ciccone some points early in the stage and then pick points up on the bigger climbs to take the jersey. If he wants it, it’s possible but a big ask. Focusing on a second stage win might be the better option, and with his form at the moment, very possible.

Jayco-AlUla will be all-in for a stage win with Simon Yates (18/1) who was close behind Gall but had to settle for another second place on stage 17. Knowing he’s up against Vingegaard in the GC group, his best chance is from the breakaway where he’ll hope to have Chris Harper (66/1) by his side who was a standout performer on Wednesday. If Yates isn’t feeling it, Harper may be given freedom to go himself.  

These are home roads for Thibaut Pinot (25/1) – can he pull off the dream finale in his last Tour de France? He’s had a good race and been pretty active but has fallen short when push came to shove. Groupama-FDJ’s better option is David Gaudu (22/1) who appears to have ridden into some form late in the race.

Finally, Jai Hindley (66/1) is looking pretty beat up after his fall a few days ago, but his Bora-Hansgrohe teammate and Tour stage winner from last year, Bob Jungels (300/1), rode really impressively on stage 17, staying with the favourites a long way up the final climb.

Vingegaard may fancy this one but is no price, so a few each-way picks on riders holding their form as others fade is the play for stage 20.  

Stage 20 Bets

Felix Gall 1pt each way (3 places) @10/1

Sepp Kuss 0.5pts each way (3 places) @28/1

Chris Harper 0.5pts each way (3 places) @70/1

Bob Jungels 0.25pts each way (3 places) @300/1

Posted 23:05 BST 21st July 2023

Prices (in brackets) to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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