Tour de France 2023

Stage 3– Amorebieta-Etxano > Bayonne (193.5km)

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Stage 2 Result

1st Victor Lafay (100/1)

2nd Wout van Aert (9/4F)

3rd Tadej Pogačar (25/1)

Stage 2 Bets

Biniam Girmay 1pt each way (3 places) @16/1

Maxim Van Gils 0.5pts each way (3 places) @70/1

Well that turned significantly tougher than expected and produced another huge-priced winner. Girmay, along with all the other sprinter-types, had no chance as UAE put the hammer down on the Jaizibel to ensure Pogačar could mop up the bonus seconds. Van Gils came down in a nasty crash 35km from home, so we’ll never know if he’d have made the front group and sprinted for the win.

Stage 3 Preview

Rolling out just east of Bilbao, stage 3 stays in the Basque Country but hops over the border and enters France for the first time. Race organisers altered the route slightly on Sunday to avoid a heap of road furniture in the last 30km, extending the distance by about 7km. It results in a bump 20km from home turning into a couple of bumps that may be launchpads for late attacks.

It’s a designated sprint stage but by no means flat – there are four classified climbs to negotiate including a third-category after just 7.5km that could see a strong break go clear. Sprint teams and yellow jersey holders UAE Team Emirates will need to police it well, but it should all come back together for a bunch finish.

Positioning will be important at a roundabout 2km from home that the riders will go all the way around. Sprints will also have to launched blind as the road bends to the left 250m out, so a good lead-out and timing will be key to determining who takes the day.

Stage 3 Contenders

As you’d expect, we have a stacked field of sprinters at this year’s Tour de France which offers up to eight chances for the fast men to compete for a stage win. Winner on the Champs-Élysées last year, Alpecin Decueninck’s Jasper Philipsen is arguably the fastest sprinter in the world right now and will have Mathieu van der Poel, who saved his legs on stage 2, as a deluxe lead-out man. Philipsen has been winning races all season and tuned up well at the Baloise Belgium Tour where he traded wins with Fabio Jakobsen, despite a tumble involving fellow sprinter Caleb Ewan on stage 2. He’s the favourite at a best price of 2/1.

Like Alpecin-Deceuninck, Soudal Quick-Step don’t have the distraction of protecting a GC man, so Jakobsen, despite being rumoured to be leaving for DSM-Firmenech next season, will have a formidable lead-out dedicated to keeping him in a prime spot throughout the final kilometres. The former Dutch champion will be looking to add to his emotional win at last year’s Tour having recovered from life-threatening injuries sustained at the Tour of Poland in 2020. Jakobsen is our second favourite at 3/1.

Ewan was lucky to escape with just bruises after that nasty looking crash with Philipsen at the Belgium Tour and has struggled for wins this season at the now second division outfit Lotto Dstny. He’s still super fast though and may be overpriced at 16/1 – if positioned well, the Aussie can deliver a sixth Tour stage win. However, his lead-out man Jasper De Buyst crashed heavily on stage 2 and is very unlikely to be at Ewan’s side, assuming he starts stage 3 at all.

Continuing the list of top-tier fast men is another five-time stage winner, Jayco AlUla’s Dylan Groenewegen. He warmed up against lesser opposition at the Tour of Slovenia but still bagged two wins. Like Ewan, it would be no surprise to see Groenewegen with his arms in the air and is clear third favourite at around 8/1

A couple of months ago, Mark Cavendish would’ve been odds-against winning a stage at this year’s Tour with his limited Astana-Qazaqstan lead-out struggling to put him in winning positions. But then a convincing win in Rome on the final stage of the Giro d’Italia has raised hopes again and a record-breaking 35th Tour stage win is a realistic possibility. Mark Renshaw, Cavendish’s lead-out man for nine seasons, has been recruited as the team’s sprint consultant which may sort out some of their problems, but he still faces stiff competition here which is reflected in his price of 22/1.

Wout van Aert was left seething and acting ‘like a child’, according to Tadej Pogačar, after failing to win either of the first two stages, despite having big chances in both. Jumbo-Visma seem a bit muddled with their objectives so far with Van Aert having to pull for Vingegaard on occasions. There should be one or two of the purer sprinters faster than him, but you never know.

So too Biniam Girmay but as stated, the parcours isn’t flat so the fastest men’s legs will be deadened somewhat which opens the door for someone like Girmay. He has former yellow jersey wearer Mike Teunissen to lead him out who hopefully has recovered from spending most of last week chasing his lost luggage. And slagging off various airlines.

Ditto for Mads Pedersen who has been quite visible and active so far – targeting intermediate sprint points in pursuit of the green jersey and getting in an early failed break on stage 2. If the stage turns tougher than it looks on paper, then Pedersen is a major player but the 10/1 looks short considering that’s unlikely and his lack of racing.

DSM-Firmenich’s Sam Welsford was only just tagged off by Philipsen in the intermediate sprint on Sunday and the Aussie clearly carries a lot of top-end speed. Winning a Grand Tour stage at effectively his first opportunity would be some achievement however, but not impossible.

Finally, Jordi Meeus was a surprise pick ahead of former green jersey winner Sam Bennett as the Bora-Hansgrohe sprinter. It would be a surprise to see him make the frame but he does have a good leadout including the excellent Danny van Poppel to launch him to the line.

Sprints these days seem to get more and more chaotic and disorganised, but given the technical final, a good lead-out ought to be key – Philipsen for the win.