Tour de France 2023

Stage 4 – Dax > Nogaro (181.6km)

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Stage 3 Result

1st Jasper Philipsen (2/1F)

2nd Phil Bauhaus (40/1)

3rd Caleb Ewan (14/1)

Stage 3 Bets

Jasper Philipsen 2pts win @2/1 – 1st

Just the three caps in the self-marked chapeau-meter as Philipsen was a short-priced favourite. The Alpecin-Deceuninck train arrived just in time to drop off their man and, after an interminable wait for the commissaires to determine he hadn’t deviated too much from his line and hampered Van Aert, was awarded the win.

Stage 4 Preview

Continuing north through France, this looks easier on paper than stage 3 with just over 1500m of altitude gain and offers another opportunity for the fast men. It does go up and down over the opening 40km however, so sprint teams – primarily Alpecin-Deceuninck and Soudal Quick-Step – will need to police and manage the break.

The finish is on the motor-racing circuit in Nogaro which is a shame as there’s something about the wide, featureless nature of these circuits that ruin the aesthetics of a typical stage finish. Anyhow, there are plenty of turns as you’d expect once they get there before a flat, 700m straight run to the line.

Stage 4 Contenders

Alpecin-Deceuninck were blocked from the front inside the last 10km of stage 3 leaving Jasper Philipsen poorly positioned and vulnerable. But just before the flamme rouge, incredible work by first Jonas Rickaert and then super-deluxe lead-out man Mathieu van der Poel allowed Philipsen to choose his line and take a third Tour stage win. As Van der Poel said afterwards, they won’t be able to deliver him that perfectly every time, but it was impressive stuff and Philipsen is understandably as short as 6/5 to double up on stage 4.

In contrast, Soudal Quick-Step bossed the front from that 10km mark before getting turned over and pushed back by Alpecin-Decueninck outside the kilometre marker. That’s the choice you make – burn more men to secure a good position early but risk losing out when it matters. Fabio Jakobsen was still in a winning position however, sat behind behind his wing-man Michael Morkøv, who was following Wout van Aert, about 500m out. But he was just too far back, got a little boxed in and couldn’t unleash his full sprint. The best price of 11/4 for this is tempting though.

Van Aert himself was the focus of commissaire deliberations afterwards having been a little squeezed by Philipsen as the road bent towards the line. It would’ve been harsh to relegate the winner, especially as the issue was mainly due to the positioning of the finishing line rather than any overtly dangerous actions by the Alpecin man. Van Aert’s fifth place would’ve been higher had he not sat up after that incident, but Jumbo-Visma were well positioned throughout and showed good commitment, despite of course their main focus being GC joint-favourite Jonas Vingegaard.

Jayco AlUla’s Dylan Groenewegen was in a decent position alongside Van Aert 500m out, and was then sat on the wheel of Bahrain Victorious’ Phil Bauhaus at the 250m marker. But he didn’t have the legs to go round – perhaps deadened a little by the tough Basque hills he’s had to negotiate over the opening three days. There didn’t appear to be anything unlucky about his eighth place and so the 8/1 is unappealing.

Bauhaus himself was never far from the front and followed a good wheel in Van Aert inside the last 500m. He was rewarded with a surprise but deserved second place, but remains a biggish 14/1 for stage 4.

Third on stage 3 was Caleb Ewan who had to operate without his final lead-out man, Jasper De Buyst, who suffered off the back of the peloton following his crash on stage 2. Still, Lotto-Dstny did a good job and dropped Ewan off with 2km to go and he came with good speed to the line. The Aussie was very nearly an each way stage 3 pick on price, but the loss of De Buyst swayed the decision against him – there’s 14/1 available here which looks big again.

Mark Cavendish said he was ‘super happy’ with his sixth place and complimented his Astana-Qazaqstan teammates for a job well done. He followed Jakobsen’s wheel but was just a bit too far back to challenge the places, however, like Ewan, wasn’t slowing down on the line. At 16/1, his price has moved in the right direction for fans hoping for a record 35th Tour stage win.

At bigger prices, Mads Pedersen has looked strong in intermediate sprints but was way too far back to challenge and this flatter day is even less in his favour. Jordi Meeus appeared to be writing off his own chances in the pre-stage interview but finished a good seventh. Track specialist Sam Welsford got blocked in a bit by Biniam Girmay but was also too far back to get a blow in, whilst Girmay will probably always struggle to beat the very fastest in a straight speed test, which stage 4 looks like it’ll be.

With such a long finishing straight and no street furniture, positioning is less important than it was on stage 3 – pure speed is the key. Let’s go for Ewan to hide behind Jakobsen or Philipsen and dart out for the win.