Tour de France 2024

Stage 4 – Pinerolo > Valloire

Tue 2nd July | Scheduled start: 13:05 CET

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Where: Starts in Italy but ends in the French ski resort of Valloire.

Stage Type: Mountain but not a summit finish and short at just 140km.

Climbs: Two second categories before the decisive hors-categorie Col du Galibier (23km at 5.1%) which is most difficult in the final 9km where it averages almost 7% including two kilometre-long sections at around 10%.

Weather: Sunny and pleasant temperatures, obviously a bit colder at the top of the mountains. Probable headwind up the Galibier which could deter attacks.

Start: Rises for 50km from the flag to the first second-category climb of the day in Sestrières.

Finish: A fast 19km descent after cresting the Col du Galibier allowing expert descenders to either catch up or create a gap.

Stage suits: General classification favourites and other climbers looking to make the breakaway.

Breakaway chances: 50/50 but the short distance may lead to a very aggressive race – there are two flat stages to follow so no need to hold back which favours a GC win. The uphill start, however, could allow some strong climbers with plenty of time on GC to get away. The Galibier is relatively shallow for a long way up and it’s not a summit finish so it’ll be a judgement on how much effort GC teams want to put in considering how little they may gain which is also in the break’s favour. Ultimately the GC teams, most likely UAE Team Emirates, will decide if the breakaway wins or not.

What will happen?: A decent-sized group will get up the road and, assuming it doesn’t include any GC threats, will be allowed upwards of 5mins. EF Education EasyPost will control for new yellow jersey wearer Richard Carapaz. UAE Team Emirates will take it up on the Col du Galibier and set up Pogačar for an attack on the first steep section 4km from the top. There’ll be some gaps between the GC favourites but probably a regroupment of sorts on the descent before a reduced sprint to the line which may or may not be for the stage.

Stage 4 Contenders

Tadej Pogačár (2/1; 3.0) showed good condition on Sunday with a very strong attack near the top of the Côte de San Luca and, knowing that Jonas Vingegaard’s level is likely to rise as we get deeper into the race, is sure to go again here on the Col du Galibier. Price is short considering gaps may be minimal over the top and the long descent will bring others back into play. So winning from a small group is more likely than solo, assuming the breakaway has been reeled in.

Jonas Vingegaard (10/1; 11.0) was the only rider who could live with Pogačar’s acceleration on San Luca – itself impressive considering his injury lay-off. This will be a truer test of his condition, but he did look relatively untroubled on Sunday. Would have to go over the top solo and stay away or gap the rest on the descent to win.

Tom Pidcock (14/1; 15.0) bridged to the breakaway with a daredevil descent on the Galibier to set up his win on Alpe d’Huez two years ago. If he’s near the front over the top, he could be unstoppable.

Remco Evenepoel (14/1; 15.0) was caught out of position just before Pogačar attacked on Sunday so did brilliantly to catch them back up, largely on his own, before the line. Was still building his fitness after the Basque Country crash and struggled with sickness in the Dauphiné, but signs so far are encouraging.

Pello Bilbao (25/1; 26.0) won a stage at the Tour of Slovenia and looked in good nick. Like Pidcock, is an excellent descender and quick on the line.

Primož Roglič (25/1; 26.0) surprisingly struggled on the San Luca climb and his Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe team looked a bit disjointed. The price is value if that was just a blip, though it must have dented his confidence somewhat.

Derek Gee (28/1; 29.0) emerged as a genuine GC contender rather than stage hunter at the Dauphiné where the Canadian won a stage and finished on the podium. Lost a bit of time on stage 2 though many appeared to suffer in the extreme heat so not sure how much to read into that.

Giulio Ciccone (33/1; 34.0) had a good Dauphiné and then like many got sick. Is fast on the line if arriving in a small group.

Richard Carapaz (33/1; 34.0) has had a so-so couple of seasons with EF Education EasyPost but is now in yellow and may be ready to give the Ecuadorian Olympic Committee another earful. Is favoured by the high altitude and is an incredibly gritty rider so has a good chance of holding onto the jersey.  

João Almeida (100/1; 101.0) will of course be working for Pogačar but if he replicates his stellar form in the Tour de Suisse – which isn’t certain as he got a bit sick afterwards – is sure to be with the front group and then would be an excellent attacking card to play if the pace drops on the run-in.

Oier Lazcano (50/1; 51.0) was climbing at a level we haven’t seen from him before at the Dauphiné, coming close to winning the Queen stage. Will more than likely be on duty for Enric Mas (250/1; 251.0) but that would be a mistake – let him get up the road.

Tobias Halland Johannessen (66/1; 67.0) is another to watch for the breakaway at almost 9mins down. The former Tour d l’Avenir winner has been knocking on the door of a big result and is a decent price to give it a nudge here.

Stage 4 Bets

Could go either way this so worth playing both scenarios – break and GC win.

Primož Roglič and Guilio Ciccone appeal on price due to their recent form and fast finishes though of course Sunday’s ride by the Slovenian is a worry. It’s also very difficult to ignore João Almeida’s performances in Switzerland. It’ll need a specific race dynamic for him to win, but the price is big and he’s worth a nibble.

Primož Roglič 1pt each way @25/1 (4 places) – 4th

Guilio Ciccone 1pt each way @33/1 (4 places) – 9th

João Almeida 0.5pts each way @100/1 (4 places) – 8th

Oier Lazcano 0.5pts each way @50/1 (4 places)

Tobias Halland Johannessen 0.5pts each way @66/1 (4 places)

Posted 23:02 BST Mon 1st July 2024

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 4 Result

1st Tadej Pogačar (2/1F)

2nd Remco Evenepoel (14/1)

3rd Juan Ayuso (70/1)

4th Primož Roglic (25/1)

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]