Stage 5 – Catania > Messina (174km)

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Stage 4 Result

1st Lennard KÄMNA (14/1)

2nd Juan Pedro LÓPEZ (50/1)

3rd Rein TAARAMÄE (18/1)

4th Sylvain MONIQUET (200/1)

5th Mauri VANSEVENANT (40/1)

Stage 4 Bets

Lennard Kämna 2pts win @14/1 – 1st 

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (5 places) @50/1

Mattias Skelmose Jensen 1pt each way (5 places) @40/1

Mauro Schmid 0.5pts each way (5 places) @66/1

Pello Bilbao 1pt win @12/1

Chapeau-meter

Just the three caps as Kämna was well fancied and simply confirmed his stellar form. Still, a welcome win after a bit of bad luck in the last two stages. I picked the wrong Quickstep and Trek riders which is frustrating as López and Vansevenant were very gettable and would’ve been a nice top-up on the day’s profit.

Stage 5 Preview

It’s a pretty flat road along the Sicilian coast from Catania to Messina. However, the route for stage 5 goes inland and takes in a very long second-category climb before descending to finish in Vincenzo Nibali’s home town. 

“The Shark” is unlikely to feature here as it’ll be one for the sprinters – but what type of sprinter will depend on how hard certain teams want to make that climb in the hope of shelling a few of the quick men. The final itself isn’t straightforward either with a very tight turn just after the flamme rouge where, as ever, positioning and a good leadout will be key.

Contenders

The lump in the middle of this stage is not ideal for stage 3 winner Mark Cavendish. He’s probably favourite to get dropped first when teams put the hammer down as they surely will. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean his chances of a win have gone – there are 100km of the stage to go once they crest the climb so plenty of time to get back on, but he may pay for that expended energy in the final. Davide Ballerini is a good option for Quick-Step if the stage gets tough and the Manxman is left behind. 

So which teams are likely to push the pace on the climb to drop or deaden the legs of the faster sprinters? Alpecin-Fenix look like candidates for former pink jersey wearer Mathieu van der Poel, especially after their own sprinter, Jakub Mareczko, abandoned the race on Mount Etna. Whether they’ll be prepared to keep the pace high for another 100km to keep them off the back is another question – and one that plays to the favour of Cavendish and co. Either way, Van der Poel is a big threat even if it all comes back together and is a tempting 7/1 to land another stage win. 

Intermarché will definitely want to make it as tough as possible and improve the chances of Biniam Girmay. That said, he wasn’t far off it on stage 3 and may have challenged for the win had he not got boxed in. He’s excellent at positioning and is sure to be there or thereabouts heading to the line. He’s available at around 6/1 which is about right.

A disincentive to push the pace too hard is that, given his climbing form, Caleb Ewan is unlikely to be dropped – so we may see Lotto Soudal putting the digs in themselves. Despite their nightmare on stage 3, I still think Ewan is the fastest man on the startlist, and if he can be delivered anywhere near the front in the last 500m, he’ll get the job done. Leadout man Roger Kluge had a spill on stage 4 which is not ideal but no doubt they’ll be smarting and eager to put things right here. Ewan is a pick at 5/2.

Both Arnaud Démare and Fernando Gaviria impressed on stage 3 and had chances to win. The Colombian was squeezed for room just enough to prevent him from unleashing a full sprint and with a bit more space the outcome could’ve been different. They’re certainly players and it wouldn’t be a massive shock if one of them got up.

And finally, there’s not the 500/1 available from stage 3, but I do think it’s worth having another small interest on AG2R’s Andrea Vendrame for the same reasons as before – the bumps in the road are in his favour and he’s fast on the line.

Stage 5 Bets

Caleb Ewan 3pts win @5/2

Mathieu van der Poel 1pt each way (3 places) @7/1

Andrea Vendrame 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Posted 22.15 BST Tue 10th May 2022

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