Tour de France 2023

Stage 5 – Pau > Laruns (162.5km)

Profile

Stage 4 Result

1st Jasper Philipsen (6/5F)

2nd Caleb Ewan (14/1)

3rd Phil Bauhaus (14/1)

Stage 4 Bets

Caleb Ewan 0.5pts each way (3 places) @14/1 – 2nd

Close! Great job from Lotto-Dstny keeping Ewan well positioned throughout in a crash-marred final. Another rocket launch from Van der Poel was the difference.

Stage 5 Preview

The first of two mountain stages in the Pyrenees that should give a better indication of the GC hierarchy. The start is pretty flat and doesn’t really begin to go up until the foothills of the first classified climb about 70km in. That’s not ideal for lightweight climbers trying to make the break and it could take a long time to settle.

That first test is a tough one – the 15.2km hors-categorie Col de Soudat at an average gradient of 7.2% with a few sections above 10% – where we should see a slimming down of the peloton.

The decisive climb will be the Col de Marie Blanque which crests 18km from the line. It’s 7.7km at 8.6% but with consistent double-figure gradients over the last 4km where attacks should fly and gaps made. There’s then a 10km descent before a further 7km of steadily rising ground to the finish in Laruns.

Stage 5 Contenders

With a tough, late climb this parcours favours a GC win, but after a quiet day on stage 4 there could be many who are hungry to get up the road and animate the race. 18km is still a fair distance from the top of that last climb to maintain any gaps forged, so the GC teams will be weighing up how much time can be gained compared to effort expended.  

Over the first few stages, Tadej Pogačar and UAE Team Emirates have been sending out a clear message to Jonas Vingegaard and Jumbo-Visma that there are no problems with Pogačar’s wrist or his general fitness, and the team is more than up for the challenge of reclaiming the Tour title. They’ve ridden hard, especially on the Jaizkibel climb on stage 2, but will they pay for that show of strength later in the race? As with that climb, there are bonus seconds available at the top of the Col de Marie Blanque so UAE may again look to ride down any break to set up a Pogačar attack. But even if he doesn’t ride clear, his fast finish means he has a great shot at the stage win and the short price of 5/2 reflects that.

After some negative and unfair press in Belgium, Vingegaard appeared to make a point of riding near the front on stage 4, keeping himself safe but also, he could argue, in the services of Wout van Aert. He’s been able to follow Pogačar’s attacks so far on terrain that isn’t ideal for him – will he sit again now we’re in the mountains or fancy an attack of his own?  

As on stage 1, yellow jersey wearer Adam Yates could be used by UAE Team Emirates in a 1-2 attack with Pogačar. Yates is a big price at 33/1 but it’s not hard to imagine him riding away with the big two, such is his form.

At the same price is Bora-Hansgrohe’s Jai Hindley who hasn’t lost any significant time and has kept out of trouble. He has the advantage of a fast finish too which gives him a chance of the stage win should it come back together.

Lidl-Trek’s Giulio Ciccone came in targeting a stage win and the KOM jersey so may fancy a flyer near the top of the final climb. The Italian has one of the fastest finishes amongst the GC men and at 33/1 looks decent value.

Bahrain Victorious’ Pello Bilbao also packs a decent finish and is an excellent descender, which will be handy for the the run-in. And what about maybe the standout rider of the Tour so far – Cofidis’ Victor Lafay? He’s clearly in the form of his life and a best price of 25/1 doesn’t seem bad value.   

With an hors-categorie climb first up, KOM leader Neilson Powless will be desperate to get up the road to mop up more mountain points. It’s unusual to have hors-categorie climbs so early in the race (there’s another one on stage 6) or indeed such a classy climber leading the classification at this point. This gives Powless half a squeak of taking the jersey all the way to Paris. If his lead is secure for another day, his secondary goal will be to win the stage and his price has been trimmed to around 22/1 to do just that.

Soudal Quick-Step are all about stage hunting this Tour and with Fabio Jakobsen falling heavily on stage 4, we’re sure to see plenty men in blue animating the race in breakaways. Julian Alaphilippe is the prime candidate for stage 5 and is available at around 22/1. He’s still a level below his best, but that could be good enough for a stage win here.

A GC win is most likely, but let’s have a breakaway saver just in case.  

Stage 5 Bets

Adam Yates 0.5pts each way (5 places) @28/1

Giulio Ciccone 0.5pts each way (5 places) @33/1

Neilson Powless 0.5pts each way (5 places) @20/1

Posted 22:44 BST 4th July 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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