Tour de France 2024
Stage 5 – Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne > Saint-Vulbas
Wed 3rd July | Scheduled start: 13:20 CET
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Stage 5 Preview
Where: Travelling north-west out of the Alps through Chambéry.
Stage Type: Flat with a few small bumps.
Weather: Around 20˚C. Possibility of showers.
Climbs: Two fourth categories with the second – the Côte de Lhuis (3km at 4.8%) – crested about 30km from home. Worth noting that it actually peaks a couple of kilometres after the KOM point, giving teams a bit more time than the numbers suggest to drop some fast men.
Start: Rolling downhill for the first 50km which would ordinarily make it tricky for a break to form, but probably won’t make a difference here given how few will want to be in it.
Finish: There’ll be a fight for a double right-hander 3km from home, followed by a long, flat run that curves to the right with 300m to go. Timing will be crucial with the probable headwind, wide road and blind finish.
Stage suits: Sprinters.
Breakaway chances: Very low.
What will happen?: A small breakaway will be kept on a tight leash by sprinter’s teams before bringing them back for a bunch finish. The second climb may well be ridden hard by teams whose sprinter can climb (eg. Lidl-Trek, Alpecin-Deceuninck and Intermarché-Wanty) to try to drop or at least deaden the legs of some of the quick men (eg. Dylan Groenewegen, Mark Cavendish, Fernando Gaviria and Fabio Jakobsen).
Stage 5 Contenders
Jasper Philipsen (6/4; 2.5) came down in the crash-marred mess of stage 3 along with Jonas Rickaert having already lost Mathieu van der Poel to a puncture a few kilometres earlier. Apparently came out of it with just abrasions to his arse but still, not ideal. Van der Poel also worked hard in the break on stage 4 – so not exactly saving himself for this. Probable winner but a short price and enough reasons to swerve on this occasion.
Dylan Groenewegen (6/1; 7.0) was unlucky to get squeezed on the barrier by Arnaud De Lie on stage 3 when seemingly having the legs to challenge. Could be one of those in trouble if the hammer goes down on the last climb. UCI got him to remove those awful ‘aero beak’ shades – they got some publicity at least but I’m not rushing to the shops.
Arnaud De Lie (7/1; 8.0) probably would’ve won stage 3 had he taken the inside line, but may be biased given he was the stage pick. He was happy enough afterwards but hopefully doesn’t rue that missed opportunity. Having looked a little out of position, the leadout actually did an excellent job and hit the front inside 4km to go which is perfect. There’s none of the 12/1 available this time – is 7/1 still attractive?
Mads Pedersen (10/1; 11.0) hit the front a little early into the headwind on stage 3 and got overrun, but at least had a clear run which many didn’t. Lidl-Trek are favourites to push a hard pace on the final climb as it levels the playing field for Pedersen.
Biniam Girmay (11/1; 12.0) got a fantastic win on stage 3 despite not being Intermarché-Wanty’s chosen sprinter for the day. With a possible green jersey up for grabs, he’ll surely be given the nod this time. Presumably, the Eritrean was the missing carriage for the final 500m when Gerben Thijssen (33/1; 34.0) was left on the front too early, had to sit back in and then got swamped. Otherwise, the Intermarché leadout was excellent which gives both a fighting chance for this.
Mark Cavendish (14/1; 15.0) got caught out behind the crash when he and his train should’ve been nearer the front. Struggled again on stage 4, rolling in 4mins before the time cut.
Wout van Aert (14/1; 15.0) was dropped pretty quickly on stage 4 and can’t be anywhere near his top level. Price doesn’t appeal.
Fernando Gaviria (18/1; 19.0) got up for a surprising and impressive second place on stage 3 so clearly has some form though was first off the back on stage 4, 20km into the race, and rolled in last. A repeat with all the major players staying on their bikes seems unlikely.
Fabio Jakobsen (25/1; 26.0) had a decent position with 500m to go but never really got a blow in. Like Gaviria, came home in the Cavendish grupetto.
Phil Bauhaus (33/1; 34.0) took the wind on the outside but didn’t have the legs to get by on stage 3, finishing fifth. Has a habit of outrunning his odds and sneaking into the frame.
Alexander Kristoff (40/1; 41.0) was caught behind the crash along with a few of his teammates. Søren Wærenskjold, a key part of Kristoff’s train, appeared to come off worst.
Arnaud Démare (40/1; 41.0) has a good-looking leadout but hasn’t really come close to winning all year so is difficult to back for this.
Sam Bennett (50/1; 51.0) like Thijssen, got to the front a bit early on stage 3, had to sit back and then inevitably got squeezed out of it. That positioning is a positive though, so too the route passing through Chambéry, home of the Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale team.
Stage 5 Bets
Again, there’s enough to go against the favourite Jasper Philipsen, not least his price. Dylan Groenewegen is a danger but let’s go in again with ‘The Bull of Lescheret’, Arnaud De Lie.
Arnaud De Lie 1pt win @7/1 – 4th
Posted 20:32 BST Tue 2nd July 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 5 Result
1st Mark Cavendish (14/1)
2nd Jasper Philipsen (6/4)
3rd Alexander Kristoff (40/1)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
