Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 5 – Atripalda > Salerno (171km)

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Stage 4 Result

1st Aurélien Paret-Peintre (40/1)

2nd Andreas Leknessund (22/1)

3rd Toms Skujiņš (150/1)

4th Vincenzo Albanese (33/1)

Stage 4 Bets

Filippo Zana – 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Ben Healy – 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier – 0.25pts each way (4 places) @400/1 – 6th

Primož Roglič – 1pt win @7/1

Ghebreigzabhier looked a million dollars and certain to finish in the top 3 until folding in two inside the final few kilometres, which was gutting to say the least. Healy was one of the most active in trying to force the breakaway but ultimately was luckless – he clearly has super legs right now though and will surely compete for a stage win at some point. Zana was in an early group with Healy which didn’t quite snap the elastic of the chasers. Good picks, no reward. Onward.

Stage 5 Preview

Starting about 50km east of Naples, the riders head south in a loop ending in the port city of Salerno. There are plenty of bumps along the way meaning a breakaway win cannot be ruled out, but the last categorized climb is almost 60km from the finish which should give sprint teams time to gather and set up a bunch finish.

Thankfully, we should see none of the carnage that we had on the run-in to stage 2 as the final 15km is on a straightish, flat road along the seafront. No beach weather though with rain forecast all day and a south-westerly breeze – so a cross-tailwind in the home stretch – which will encourage sprinters to launch early.

Stage 5 Contenders

This is a very tricky start for sprint teams and Team DSM (who now hold the pink jersey with Andreas Leknessund) to control – there’s a third-category climb pretty much straight from the gun and a group could go clear that’s simply too big and strong to bring back. We’re still early in the race though and on balance there ought to be enough sprint teams willing to peg and reel them in.

Trek-Segafredo fell just short again on stage 4, though considering they were the only team with numbers in the break, a change in tactics was probably needed to produce a different result – a valley attack by Toms Skujiņš perhaps. Mads Pedersen doesn’t appear to be at the top of his game, but that might not matter here – he was put in the gutter on stage 3 and was still unlucky not to win. What’s more, he should grow stronger as others fade and a tough day out in mucky weather is in his favour. He has a good leadout though plenty were active on stage 4 and could be a bit pooped. Still, Pedersen is a solid stage favourite at a best price of 15/8.

Despite him not being the stage pick, it was great to see Michael Matthews back on the winner’s podium in Melfi. Jayco-AlUla did a great job and their game plan played out to the letter. They’ll try again to drop some fast men on the climbs, but Matthews may arrive at the line with more of them this time. He admitted himself that his top-end speed isn’t quite there and may find a few faster than him.

Two third place finishes for Kaden Groves is a decent return for the young Aussie but he’ll no doubt want more. It was unfair, as many did, to blame him for the crash on stage 2 – he was within his rights to defend his space. He rode well on the stage 3 climbs so should be there in the finish – hopefully, he won’t be impeded by his own teammate in the sprint this time. Alpecin-Deceuninck have a good leadout which will help on this long run to the line and give Groves the chance to strike for the win.

Bahrain-Victorious’ Jonathan Milan showed on stage 2 what a beast of a rider he is. It’s possible that if put in a good position – which he’s likely to be by the excellent Andrea Pasqualon – that he might be unmatched for power despite clearly not being the most aerodynamic. That said, we don’t know how he’d have matched up against the sprinters caught up in the crash and his size will not help him get over these climbs.  

Team Movistar’s Fernando Gaviria appeared to start his sprint a little early on stage 2 and ended up in seventh. The Colombian showed plenty of speed endurance at the Tour de Romandie last month when he launched with about 700m to go and won by a distance and the 12/1 about him is attractive – it may look very big by the end.

Runner-up on stage 2 was Arkéa Samsic’s David Dekker but he was shot out the back very early on stage 4 and looked to be dying a thousand deaths which is probably not a great sign for a follow up. The hills will probably also do for Astana-Qazaqkstan’s Mark Cavendish and the 28/1 about him reflects that.

Stage 5 Bets

Mads Pedersen 3pts win @15/8

Posted 21.05 BST 9th May 2023

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